Week 13 QB Ranks
Andrew Luck: Underwhelmed by his Week 12 stat line of 253 passing yards and one passing touchdown? Don’t be. Overlooking his explosive first game against the Jags this season, Luck has thrown only six touchdowns in five career games against the Jags (a 28.6 percent decline from his career touchdown rate). He will be just fine against the Redskins and their 21:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season.
Aaron Rodgers: Derek Jeter who? Football’s Mr. November has completed 68.7 percent of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt (12.4 yards per completion) since 2009 in November’s in which he has thrown at least the 92 passes he has this year. The completion percentage is nice, but how does 10.5 touchdowns per interception sound?
Peyton Manning: Ignoring his first two starts as a Bronco, Manning has had just two instances in which he has gone at least two consecutive weeks without throwing for 300 yards … the Kansas City Chiefs played a part in both of those streaks (he failed to reach 300 last week).
Drew Brees: Most worry about the home/road splits for Brees, but his numbers have been pretty stable regardless of location this season. The Steelers, however, have allowed three of the past four quarterbacks they’ve faced to throw for at least 300 yards and two touchdowns in Pittsburgh.
Ben Roethlisberger: He has tossed at least two more touchdowns or not thrown an interception in five of his last six games following a bye week. Big Ben is averaging a cool 31.3 Fantasy points in performances like that this season.
Tom Brady: He has passed for multiple touchdowns in all seven of the Patriots’ games during their current win streak, his longest stretch since 2011. That’s not a bad trend to take into Green Bay, as the Packers have allowed non-NFC North quarterbacks to throw for at least two scores in four straight.
Tony Romo: Not only do his seven touchdowns match his greatest two week performance without a pick in his career, the Eagles have given up 1,018 passing yards over the last three weeks despite facing Cam Newton and Zach Mettenberger during that stretch.
Philip Rivers: He is once again among the three most accurate quarterbacks in football, a skill set that is worth buying into against the Ravens, as no defense has seen quarterbacks complete more passes with a greater touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Ryan Tannehill: Not only has Tannehill completed at least 70 percent of his passes in four straight games, he gets the luxury of an extra day to prepare for a Jets defense that has allowed the most passing touchdowns and intercepted the fewest passes in the NFL this season.
Matthew Stafford: Did you know that we were eating turkey with our families the last time Stafford threw for at least three touchdowns in a game? Yep, one year ago. The Bears defense isn’t good, but they haven’t allowed multiple passing touchdowns to a quarterback that is neither mobile nor headed to the hall of fame this season.
Cam Newton: A favorable matchup off a bye? Not so fast. The Vikes are fresh off of holding Aaron Rodgers to 209 passing yards and Newton is completing just 55.6 percent of his passes following a bye. Furthermore, in those post-bye games, Newton is averaging a mere 6.4 yards per pass attempt and just one touchdown alongside five interceptions.
Jay Cutler: Since last Thanksgiving, Cutler has as many sub-200 yard passing games as he does 300-yard days. That type of inconsistency is maddening, especially when you consider that the touchdown upside isn’t great, as he has more interceptions since 2012 in divisional games than touchdown passes.
Mark Sanchez: The Sanchize has thrown for at least 300 yards in three straight games. That’s two more than he had in all of 2009 and 2010, when he was the toast of the NFL and making it to back-to-back AFC Championship games #ChipKellyEffect
Drew Stanton: Atlanta ranks second to last in defending the deep pass (both in terms of 40-plus yard plays and average yards per pass attempt) while Stanton continues to set the pace when it comes to testing defenses downfield (21.2 percent of his attempts travel at least 20 yards).
Andy Dalton: He has completed more than 25 passes in exactly zero games that have ended after four quarters this season. The Buccaneers defense is bad, but if you take Dalton’s average of 18 completions over his last six games and multiply it by Tampa Bay’s 11.17 yards per completion against, you’re looking at 202 passing yards.
Matt Ryan: He hasn’t thrown for more than 273 yards since the first week of October and the Cardinals have held four straight opponents under 220 yards through the air (not to mention a total of three passing touchdowns). Matty Ice has also gone seven straight weeks without a three touchdown game after recording three in his first four to open the season.
Josh McCown: It’s obviously a small sample size, but you can’t help but be impressed with the upside McCown has shown with his pair of elite targets. Since regaining the Buccaneers starting gig, McCown is averaging 13.88 yards per completion … or 14.1 percent more than Peyton Manning completed in the greatest passing yardage season of all time.
Eli Manning: The Jaguars have given up the sixth most passing yards this season and are allowing nearly four touchdown tosses for every interception. I’ll take my chances with a quarterback in Manning who is working on his best four-game stretch (in terms of passing yards) in more than two years.
Brian Hoyer: He is averaging 15.2 yards per completion over the last two weeks, a positive trend to take into Buffalo against a defense that has proven a bit vulnerable in their few matchups against offenses that are willing to stretch the field.
Joe Flacco: Only five defenses have a worse touchdown-to-interception ratio than the Chargers this season and Joe Cool has thrown 86 passes since his last INT.
Russell Wilson: He has thrown for fewer than 200 yards or not recorded multiple touchdowns in five straight, a major concern against a Niners defense that has allowed quarterbacks to rush for only 73 yards this season.
Colin Kaepernick: Zach Mettenberger has started one less game and thrown 31 fewer passes than Kaepernick since Week 7 … and thrown for 40 percent more touchdowns.
Alex Smith: Remember the last time Smith threw for at least 250 yards and scored a touchdown? Last December.
Teddy Bridgewater: The overall numbers are underwhelming and the upside is limited, but maybe not as much as you think. He has very quietly thrown more passes over his last four games than Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, and Jay Cutler.[table “1296” not found /]
Week 13 FLEX Ranks
Le’Veon Bell: Is there a better combination than a well rested Bell (Week 11’s leading Fantasy scorer) going up against a tired Saints defense (allowed Justin Forsett to lead Week 12 in Fantasy points)?
Dez Bryant: The Eagles have allowed multiple receiver touchdowns in four of their last five and Bryant is on pace for a career high 14 scores.
Antonio Brown: He has accounted for nearly one-third of Roethlisberger’s completions over the last month and has 12.2 percent more touches than any other receiver in football.
DeMarco Murray: No running back in the league has caught more passes at a higher rate than Murray, a great skill to have when opposing the only defense in the NFL to surrender at least six rushing and six receiving touchdowns to running backs this season.
Demaryius Thomas: He has 69 receptions in his last eight games. For those not mathematically inclined, that is a 138 catch pace for a season. DT is averaging 27.8 PPR points over that stretch (for reference, that’s more points than Dez Bryant recorded in Week 12).
A.J. Green: In 15 of his last 17 games with a minimum of three receptions, Green has totaled 100 yards or found the endzone, doing both on five occasions.
Calvin Johnson: He has seen at least 10 targets in 15 of the last 16 games in which he has been on the field for at least 60 percent of the Lions offensive snaps.
Arian Foster: The Texans are clearly committed to the ground game (Alfred Blue has 55 touches during Foster’s two week absence) and the Titans are as favorable a matchup as it gets right now (running backs are scoring 28.4 Fantasy points against them over the last four games, averaging 5.4 yards per carry in the process).
Alshon Jeffery: I may have been a little aggressive, but Jeffery has ranked as a Top 15 PPR receiver since Week 5 and a WR1 over the last three weeks.
Randall Cobb: Where is the floor? He has scored at least 9.8 PPR points in eight straight, eclipsing 16.5 points in six of those contests.
Josh Gordon: So much for easing him back into action or a snap count! Gordon has now managed at least 15 PPR points in eight straight contests.
Matt Forte: Worried about the Lions stingy run defense? Forte is averaging 6.2 receptions this season in games that he manages fewer than 4.0 yards per carry.
Julio Jones: He’s an elite receiver, but this isn’t the ideal matchup for a player that has failed to eclipse 70 receiving yards in five of his last six.
T.Y. Hilton: After catching at least five passes in 16 of 17 games, Hilton has hauled in fewer than five balls in back-to-back-to-back weeks. If you’re going to rely on one big play saving you, it is worth noting that last week’s 73-yard score was his first regular season trip to the end zone in more than 13 months.
Jamaal Charles: He has scored in six straight games and is averaging 21.2 touches over that stretch. Charles has also totaled at least 100 yards and a touchdown following his last two Thursday games.
Kelvin Benjamin: The bye week can’t hurt the youngster in his first NFL season, and neither can the fact that the Vikings have allowed the opponents WR1 to average 22.5 PPR Fantasy points over their last five games.
Andre Ellington: He ranks third among running backs in receptions and the Falcons are allowing RB’s to catch 74.1 percent of passes thrown in their direction this season.
Jordy Nelson: Sure, he failed to score last week. Don’t get used to it. He has more games with eight-plus catches than he does games without a trip to the end zone this season.
Marshawn Lynch: Could a balky back limit him? Sure, but he’s worth the risk. He has scored a touchdown or averaged 6.0 yards per carry in four straight, and eight of nine, games on short rest as a member of the Seahawks.
Emmanuel Sanders: A mere 38 yards and one touchdown. That is the only difference between Sanders and Antonio Brown since Week 2 this season.
Jordan Matthews: He has 81.2 PPR points over the last four weeks. How good is that? To start this season, only four receivers (Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, and Steve Smith) had a better four week stretch.
Justin Forsett: The Chargers have limited opposing running backs to less than 100 rush yards and zero touchdowns in the majority of games this season.
Mike Evans: Before I explain this seemingly low rank, I do want it to be clear that I’m buying what this rookie has been able to do. That said, I’m also buying the Bengals and they haven’t allowed a receiver to total more than 56 yards in three weeks.
Brandon Marshall: Fewer than 50 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games, matching the number of such regular season games he had in the previous two seasons combined.
Mark Ingram: Despite ranking 13th in carries, Ingram ranks 22nd in rushing yards over the last two weeks (2.76 yards per carry) and faces the fifth least run on defense in the NFL.
Jeremy Maclin: Different does not always mean worse. While Maclin’s aDOT has dropped from 17.3 to 9.7 with Mark Sanchez as the starting quarterback, his target count has dipped only slightly while his catch percentage has improved drastically (from 56 percent to 69 percent).
DeAndre Hopkins: He has been targeted at least nine times in five straight contests and Houston quarterbacks own a QB Rating that is 21.3 points higher when they throw in his direction than to Andre Johnson this season.
Eddie Lacy: Four straight 100+ yard games after opening the season with just one such performance in his first seven games.
Alfred Morris: He has totaled 324 yards in his last three road games, scoring four touchdowns in the process. Not a bad trend with the Colts, a defense allowing more than one rushing touchdown per week, on the Week 13 slate.
Golden Tate: This one is pretty simple: Tate has been a WR1 (20.2 PPR points per game) over the last five weeks, thanks in large part to his ability to break off the big play (at least a 28-yard reception in each of those contests). The Bears have allowed the third most pass plays of at least 20 yards this season.
Vincent Jackson: There isn’t one receiver in the league with more targets and a higher catch percentage in November than the Buccaneers veteran.
LeSean McCoy: He still is what he has always been; a very good player that is among the Fantasy elite when he is making cuts with conviction and breaking the big play. In 2013, he had seven games with a play measuring at least 30 yards. His best performance of this season was last week, not coincidentally the first time he gained 30-plus on one touch (his two longest carries prior to Week 12’s 53 yard tote totaled 54 yards). His other 20 carries went for just 77 yards, but these big gains tend to come in bunches from Shady (he had three such games in a four game span twice last year).
Rashad Jennings: He was used as an offensive threat (via the rush or route run) on 88 percent of his snaps last week, a greater rate than in September when he was producing as a RB1.
Sammy Watkins: Three straight sub-40 yard games on the heels of 272 yards and three touchdowns in a two week span which came on the heels of three sub-40 yard weeks in a month: such is Fantasy life with a rookie. On the bright side, only two defenses in the league have seen WR’s targeted more than the Browns and Watkins is without question the Bills first option on pass plays.
Odell Beckham Jr.: He’s the non-Broncos November leader in targets and receptions. Come for the potential highlight play, stay for the consistent production.
Jerick McKinnon: He has yet to score on his 140 touches this season, but that could change against a Panthers defense that has allowed a league-high 14 touchdowns to running backs this season.
Julian Edelman: A bit more volume dependent than is ideal (averaging 9.1 yards per catch over his last three games and just one reception over 20 yards in his last nine), but there should be no lack of pass attempts in a game that features the two highest scoring offenses in the NFL.
Roddy White: He gets the unfair rep of a fading star, but he has been targeted at least 10 times in the majority of games since last December. In fact, over the Falcons last five games, White has the same number of targets as Julio Jones, producing nine more catches, 49 more yards, and three times as many touchdowns in the process.
Jeremy Hill: He split time with Bernard last week, and while that is not ideal, he is still getting the dangerous touches and faces a defensive line that has earned the second worst run stuffing grade this season.
Mike Wallace: His Fantasy success (by season) and aDOT have had an inverse relationship for the last three years, making his strong 2014 campaign sustainable as his aDOT has dipped below 14.5 yards. That’s the number cruncher view … he gets the Jets this week, that’s not a bad reason to start him either.
Andre Johnson: He has never been a touchdown machine, but with just one score in his last 18 games (105 catches) and a revolving door at quarterback, his ceiling is limited.
Giovani Bernard: It is possible that he assumes more of the perimeter duties in this Bengals offense, not a bad role to have against Tampa Bay, as no defense has allowed more receptions and more receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs.
Joique Bell: The Bears have not allowed a rushing touchdown in four straight games and Bell is averaging a mere 6.3 Fantasy points in the last six contests in which he has failed to reach the end zone.
Marques Colston: He has one road touchdown in the last 25 months. Isn’t that hard to do in an offense that has thrown 29 touchdowns away from New Orleans over that stretch?
“Players I like more than you” Tier (4)
Tre Mason: His 78 carries in November rank him fifth in the NFL, a trend I’ll take to the bank against a Raiders defense that has seen opposing running backs touch the ball an average of 33.5 times this season.
Michael Floyd: With Larry Fitzgerald expected to be limited and possibly inactive, Floyd should thrive in a matchup against a Falcons defense that is allowing the second most yards per pass attempt this season. Atlanta has also allowed opposing receivers to total at least 25 Standard Fantasy points in four straight and six out of their last seven.
Denard Robinson: Sometimes you can learn as much from a poor outing as you can from a big game. In a game in which Jacksonville was dominated from start to finish, Robinson still finished among within the Top 15 running backs in terms of touches. That shouldn’t change this week against a Giants team that is seeing opposing RB’s average nearly 30 touches per game and are allowing the third most Fantasy points to backs. Volume has value.
Anquan Boldin: He has scored or been targeted 10-plus times in five of his last six games. If this doesn’t “feel” like a Boldin game, I don’t know what does.
C.J. Anderson: He is averaging an eye-popping 7.3 yards per touch in his three games with at least 10 touches. Remember when you were looking for a Denver back that will have Fantasy value that far exceeds his skill set thanks to the respect paid to Peyton Manning?
Fred Jackson: He has scored or totaled 100 total yards in four of his last five games with double-digit touches.
Rueben Randle: Not sure if you’ve heard, but the Giants had a receiver not named Randle do some pretty impressive things on Sunday night. But you know what that doesn’t do? It doesn’t make Randle less valuable than he was entering Week 12. He ranked among the 10 most targeted receivers from Weeks 3-11, and with him being on the field for 91 percent of the Giants offensive plays this season, there is little reason to think that trend reverses in the near future.
Trent Richardson: He has totaled at least 80 yards or scored a touchdown in nine of his 12 13-plus carry games as a member of the Colts.
Isaiah Crowell: Not one healthy back in the NFL has a greater “Breakaway Percentage” (percentage of yards that came on a run of at least 15 yards) than the rookie out of Alabama State.
Lamar Miller: DeMarco Murray and Justin Forsett are the only two backs in the NFL averaging more yards per carry than Miller that also have more 20-plus yard rushes.
Brandon LaFell: Since he started being involved in this Patriots offense, LaFell has tallied a 48-674-5 stat line. Let me put that another way. His 16-game average since Week 3 is: 85-1,199-9. Has there ever been a receiver with that pace fly more under the radar on a high profile team?
Reggie Wayne: He is averaging more targets per game than T.Y. Hilton this season. He doesn’t possess game-breaking upside, but there is value in volume (see Robinson, Denard or Randle, Rueben), especially when the volume is of high quality.
Shane Vereen: He recorded his second most snaps played (62) last week and already has 25.8 percent more carries than he has ever had in an entire season. This backfield is Fantasy poison, but if you feel the urge to roll the dice, this is your best bet.
Kenny Stills: The college circuit had their “Kenny Thrills” for a minute and it may be the NFL’s turn. In the first game played without Brandin Cooks, the burner ran a route on 84 percent of his snaps and caught eight of nine passes thrown in his direction. He is still more of a home run threat than anything, but he has tremendous potential given his natural ability and quarterback.
Frank Gore: It’s been nearly two months since the last time the veteran running back had a touch result in a gain greater than 17 yards, something that wouldn’t be a concern if the volume of touches was up to par (averaging 15.6 carries over the last five weeks, nearly a 10 percent drop from last season).
Steve Smith Sr.: Remember when Smith was running past defenses (and his mouth) in his first seven games of 2014? He averaged 91.4 yards during that stretch, but he has totaled just 88 yards in the three following games. The Week 12 breakout is nice, but difficult to count on.
Steven Jackson: Three touchdowns in four weeks is nice, but 2.5 yards per carry with a long of seven yards over the last two weeks against two of the worst run defenses in the NFL is less than encouraging.[table “1297” not found /]
Week 13 TE Ranks
Rob Gronkowski: He has failed to find pay dirt in four games this season, three of which came against elite run defenses. The Packers have a lot of things, but an elite run defense is not one of them.
Jimmy Graham: Only the Bears have allowed tight ends to record more yards and touchdowns than the Steelers this season.
Greg Olsen: He has had no issue with the NFC North this season, recoding 20 catches for 249 yards and two scores in three games this season.
Martellus Bennett: He next week without at least five targets will be his first this season.
Starting Denver Tight End: Start him, whoever it is. My guess is that Julius Thomas gives it a go, but if Jacob Tamme is once again penciled in, you start him. Tight ends are finding the endzone on 25 percent of their receptions against the Chiefs this season.
Delanie Walker: He very quietly ranks fifth in TE targets this season and is averaging more points per opportunity than Greg Olsen.
Coby Fleener: The Colts obviously own an elite pass game and Fleener is set to absorb a heavy workload as long as Dwayne Allen is sidelines. Only five defenses in the league are allowing more yards and more touchdowns to tight ends than the ‘Skins.
Larry Donnell: Only the Cowboys have seen tight ends absorb more targets and score more touchdowns than the Jaguars this season.
Antonio Gates: He hasn’t scored in three straight games, but 65 percent of his touchdowns over the last three seasons have come at home.
Eric Ebron: The yardage totals haven’t been there (he has as many games with 40-plus receiving yards as you and I do), but he did record a season-high seven targets and 35 routes run on Sunday.
Travis Kelce: There is potential dripping off of him, but without a five catch or 70 yard performance since September, he isn’t a must start.
Kyle Rudolph: Only five defenses have allowed tight ends to be targeted more than the Panthers. Combine that with the fifth most passing touchdowns allowed this season and you’ve got reasonable TD upside here.
Niles Paul: No tight end (minimum of 25 receptions) has a higher aDOT and a higher catch percentage than Paul, not a bad usage against the third worst defense against tight ends.
Brent Celek: He has 11 catches over the last three weeks after hauling in just 14 passes in the previous eight weeks, proving that he fits in this Mark Sanchez offense. Zach Ertz is the young option who possesses more upside, but Celek has run 11 more pass routes over the last three weeks
Mychal Rivera: His numbers have dropped off a bit of late, but he has played at least three-quarters of the Raiders offensive snaps in six of his last seven games.
Charles Clay: He is battling a laundry list of injuries, and while the target count is nice when he is in there (fourth most among tight ends in Weeks 9-11), he has failed to eclipse 65 receiving yards in 13 straight games.