Titans-Chiefs DFS Showdown: Injury and Depth Analysis

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The Tennessee Titans travel to Kansas City to take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs with an uncertain injury situation at the quarterback spot. Ryan Tannehill made the trip to Kansas City but is listed as questionable and appears to be a true game-time decision. Malik Willis will make the start if Tannehill cannot go while providing a slightly stronger DFS upside, given his rushing abilities. Patrick Mahomes, however, offers the highest upside on the entire slate and can do anything needed at the quarterback spot.


The Titans go for a sixth straight victory tonight on the back of Derrick Henry, who rushed for 219 yards last week. He’s averaged an absurd 30 rushing attempts over the past three games, which will set up for a strong matchup against a stout Kansas City run defense that has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game. Last week looks like a fluke game for Dontrell Hilliard, who accounted for eight of his 14 seasonal rushing attempts, so we’ll look for a potential receiving upside where he’s been targeted at least four times in three games this season.

The Kansas City running back carousel takes on another dimension as we saw Clyde Edwards-Helaire rank third in snap% among the running backs in Week 7 heading into the bye. We still project him as the RB1 in terms of carries, but Isiah Pacheco has closed that gap, while Jerick McKinnon has appeared to overtake most of the backfield receiving work that CEH relied on early in the season. The “pot” only sits at around 20 carries that will be needed to be divided up among the three backs, but knowing Andy Reid, we can never get too confident in one formula. 


The ceiling of Tennessee receivers is relatively low regardless and could go even lower, as Malik Willis only attempted 10 passes last week. Robert Woods will be the WR1 but has not recorded more than four receptions in a game this season, with only a lone touchdown to show. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Cody Hollister will round out the top three, even though both have only combined for ten receptions this season. Recently acquired Chris Conley looks to be the primary rotational receiver who would be as shocked as us if he were to get more than a target or two, given how this offense has looked. 

Travis Kelce will indubitably be this offense’s top receiving option, but JuJu Smith-Schuster looks to be picking up steam as the WR1 after back-to-back 100-yard games. He has garnered eight targets in five of seven games this season, illustrating confidence from his quarterback. Marquez Valdes-Scantling will be the WR2 who offers a desirable deep ball ability while averaging about 5.5 targets per game. Mecole Hardman has found the end zone in the last two games, but his workload tonight is something to monitor given the insertion of newly acquired Kadarius Toney, who is going to get some work, but still is relatively new to this offense. Skyy Moore will be a rotational receiver with some upside to eat up some of the work we’re projecting for Toney to receive if Andy Reid isn’t ready to deploy him yet.   


All three of Tennessee’s primary tight ends in, Austin Hooper, Geoff Swaim, and Chigoziem Okonkwo, are threats to receive targets even though they have only combined for 22 receptions this season. Hooper should lead the way in the targets, while Swaim will lead the way in snap%, given his blocking abilities.

Kelce has averaged nearly nine targets per game this season on a touchdown-per-game pace, aided by his 25-yard, four-TD Monday Night Football outing in Week 5. He and Mahomes might be the best tandem in the sport and deserve confidence on every slate. Noah Gray could see a few targets as the second tight end with a slight boost as Jody Fortson has been ruled out for tonight.