Titans-Packers DFS Showdown: Injury and Depth Analysis
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Aaron Rodgers is coming off his most promising performance as he and the Green Bay Packers look ahead to the Tennessee Titans on a short week. Although Rodgers only threw the ball 20 times last week, he looked poised and in command, something we couldn’t say for a long stretch of time this season. On the other sideline, we know what we’re getting with Ryan Tannehill week in and week out, as he’ll be an efficient (hopefully) quarterback in a run-first offense. He doesn’t have the resources around him to be a gun-slinger, and the Packers feature the third-best passing defense in the league in terms of allowed yards per game.
Aaron Jones was relied on heavily as the only piece of the Packers’ offense that was doing anything during their rough patch, and when he couldn’t get anything going, it was bad across the board. He’ll have a tough matchup against an incredible Titans rush defense, and in three of his last five games, he went under 10 carries, and it looks like that could be likely tonight. We’ll be reliant on Rodgers feeding additional targets to produce value. AJ Dillon will be the second leg of the two-headed monster, so he’ll see about 10-12 on the high end without the same receiving upside Jones features.
Derrick Henry looks set for a massive workload in the Frozen Tundra tonight as he already is first in the league in rushing attempts with nine touchdowns under his belt. The Packers are much more susceptible to the run than the pass, so look for the Titans to look to King Henry early and often, more than they usually do. Dontrell Hilliard will rotate in, but he only has seen more than three carries in one game this year and has had his receiving work minimized over the past few weeks.
Christian Watson’s coming out party against Dallas was something special as he went for 100+ yards with three scores, and we are confident in his potential as the WR1 from now on with a slight edge over Allen Lazard. Watson saw 84% of the snaps and led the team in targets with eight, so expecting Rodgers to rely on his highly touted rookie looks more likely. With Romeo Doubs still out, we don’t expect Lazard to disappear by any means, as he could also see WR1 targets in his own right. The snap% drop-off after those two was pretty noticeable as Sammy Watkins was up next with only 33% of snaps, followed by Samori Toure with 19%. Both will see similar roles and likely won’t combine for more than five targets.
Robert Woods’s seven-target game last week only resulted in 10 yards while having only eclipsed 40 yards once this season. It is hard to get excited about him, but with Treylon Burks expected to see an increased workload in his second week removed from the injury, we could ideally put his vertical abilities on display as the WR2 … for now. Burks is a talented player, but it’s still funny that the Titans thought they could swap AJ Brown for Burks and expect nothing to change. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is coming off of a sensational outing, in terms of expectations for Titans receivers, where he went for 118 yards and two scores. We still have him projected as the WR3, but the upside is clear.
Robert Tonyan has averaged just over five targets per game this season and will have a favorable matchup against a defense, allowing the fourth most yards per game to opposing tight ends. Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, and Tyler Davis will all be active as rotational tight ends, with Lewis offering the highest minimal upsides.
Austin Hooper will be the lead receiving tight end for Tennesee, and he has combined for 97 yards over the last two games with Tannehill as his QB. Chigoziem Okonkwo and Geoff Swaim will rotate in and be factors for a few targets, with the edge favoring Okonkwo. Still, we are not looking favorable on these matchups as the Packers only allow 27 yards per game to opposing tight ends, the best mark in the league.
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