Titans-Packers DFS Showdown: Slate Strategy Analysis

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MULTIPLIER TARGETS:

Derrick Henry will be the most highly touted player on tonight’s board in a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans. Henry ranks first in rushing attempts, second in yards, and tied for second in touchdowns with nine. He’ll be going up against a rush defense that has allowed the seventh most rushing yards per game to opponents, so given the sub-freezing temperatures in Lambeau under the lights, this has the feels of a King Henry game written all over it. He’s proven time and time again to be worth coughing up the coin.

Aaron Jones will be going up against a very strong run defense and has seen less than 10 carries in three of his last five games. Given how bad Tennessee is against the pass, it doesn’t make much sense for Jones to be handling the rock too much out of the backfield, so we’d be dependent on his receiving upside. With only a slight price incentive to back Jones over Henry, it makes much more sense to pay up and play it safe with Henry. 

Tennessee allows the league’s second most passing yards per game, which could provide Aaron Rodgers an excellent opportunity to build off the momentum he and the Packers created last week. He’ll provide a financial incentive compared to Henry and Jones but will see comparable ownership, so the value is there certainly. It’s just a matter of how you view the guys ahead of him.

The Christian Watson hype is where we’re looking for a potential value play at the multiplier spot. He went for 100+ yards and three scores last week and currently has the slight edge in our projections as the WR1 after seeing eight targets and 84% of the snaps. With Tennessee much more susceptible to the pass rather than the run, Aaron Rodgers’ new WR1 could be in for a big night. 

FLEX OPTIONS:

Ryan Tannehill is a pretty uninspiring option on this slate, but he has a significant ownership advantage that cannot be glossed over. However, for the Titans to be in this game, it will come on Derrick Henry’s back, not Tannehill out-dueling Rodgers. Spending that salary elsewhere might be better served.

AJ Dillon is the second head of the Packers’ two-headed attack, and he should see a workload of around 10-12 carries if we’re being generous. If we’re looking to fade Jones due to the stout rush defense that Tennessee features, we should apply the same logic to Dillon, as some of Green Bay’s premier pass-catchers are similarly priced.

It’s hard to have any confidence in the Titans’ receiving corps after what we’ve seen thus far this season. Paying up for Robert Woods is undesirable, and although Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is coming off of a career game, we still would like to see more out of him. The continued unknown factor of Treylon Burks at the lowest price of the three is probably the most desirable, but the Packers defend the pass incredibly well, so you shouldn’t go out of your way to squeeze them into your lineups.

Even though we view Christian Watson as having supplanted Allen Lazard atop the depth chart, by no means does that make Lazard a non-factor in this offense. He’s averaged nearly eight targets per game with five touchdowns this season, so the value clearly can be there, but it will depend on whether you want to pay up for Lazard over the cheaper and surging Watson.

We’re going to side with a more expensive Robert Tonyan rather than Austin Hooper, as Tonyan has a significantly better quarterback and matchup. The Titans defend the tight end position at one of the worst rates in the league, while Green Bay is the best, so favor Tonyan despite his higher ownership. 

Sammy Watkins is too expensive for only playing 33% of snaps last week, so we’ll take a flyer out on Samori Toure as our favorite cheap option. He is a deep-ball threat who could see added snaps as the rotational snaps that Amari Rodgers was once getting are now gone with him being off the roster. Dontrell Hilliard is getting some buzz as a cheap option as well, but behind Derrick Henry, we aren’t confident in his workload as he has only seen more than three carries in a game once this season and has only seen five targets over the past three weeks.