TNF Player Props: A Tale of Two Tundra Backs at Lambeau
We’re coming in hot after a sizzling perfect 5-0 mark on Monday Night Football. Hopefully, you loaded up on Brian Robinson Jr. and ran all the way to the bank. Thursday Night Football features a great matchup between a Green Bay Packers team finding its way back and a Tennessee Titans squad challenging for the AFC title. A chilly night awaits us at Lambeau Field, paving the way for the King while Jones won’t be keeping up.
All odds and props are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.
RB Derrick Henry Over 98.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Derrick Henry has solidified himself at the top of the league’s running back pecking order in 2022 after an injury cut his 2021 short. Henry has not missed a beat on his way to the second-most rushing yards in the NFL, with 923 on the season. The King will put pressure on leading rusher Saquon Barkley if he can go over this total as we expect. Henry leads the league with 202 attempts, so volume should not be a problem on TNF. His nine touchdowns are also second in the league, so make sure you check out our honorable mentions.
The chilly weather expected tonight in Green Bay should motivate the already run-first Titans to keep the ball on the ground even more. Matching up against a suspect Packers run defense should provide even more motivation for Henry and Tennessee’s offensive game plan.
Green Bay has given up the seventh-most rushing yards this year, allowing 140.6 per game. The Packers are also sixth-worst in giving up 4.8 yards per carry. Conversely, GB is one of the better pass defenses, allowing the third-fewest air yards at 179.7 a week.
The clear path to moving the ball in Green Bay is keeping it on the ground and feeding their beast, Derrick Henry. The fact that BetMGM has a number under 100 tonight is also inviting since some other books have set the bar above the century mark for Henry.
RB Aaron Jones Under 57.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
While Tennessee’s path to success should be found on the ground, the Packers are better off keeping it in the air. The Titans give up the second-fewest rushing yards at 85.1 on 3.9 per carry, the third-best mark. Nashville football’s finest have also allowed just two touchdowns on the ground, the lowest total in the NFL, so even on the goal line Green Bay may be better served leaving the ball in the hands of their other Aaron.
The Titans’ defense is the reverse flip of Green Bay’s: they are great against the run and not so great against the pass. Tennessee’s 272.6 pass yards allowed per game is the second-worst mark in the league, and their 16 pass TDs given up is the sixth-worst. As we said, the Packers should look to Rodgers, not Jones, when trying to punch one in tonight.
Aaron Jones is on pace for the lowest rushing touchdown total of his career but is firing off a career-best 5.6 yards per carry. Jones is still the most talented weapon for Aaron Rodgers, but he can do his damage by catching balls out of the backfield. The UTEP product has 34 catches on 42 targets for 228 yards and three TD catchers, one more than he has on the ground this season.
Jones will have to be involved as a central piece in the offense tonight but against a stingy Titans run D, expect him to be used as a blocker and on screens out of the backfield rather than a receiver of hand-offs.
Honorable Mentions: Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (-139), Aaron Rodgers Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-110), Aaron Rodgers Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (-125)
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