TNF Player Props: Eagles to Exploit Texans' Terrible Run Defense and Ground Houston's Air Attack
We may see the most one-sided Thursday Night Football game of the season as the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles travel to Texas to face the one-win Houston Texans. The two cities battling in the World Series will shift the fight to the gridiron.
The difference is these teams are much further apart than the Astros and Phillies. Our prop picks mirror the talent gap between the Eagles and Texans, as Philly should run wild while Houston’s aerial attack will be grounded. All odds and props are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
RB Miles Sanders Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Houston, we don’t only have a problem. We have many, many problems. At the top of that losing laundry list is the Texans’ ability or inability to stop the run. Houston has, by far, given up the most yards on the ground in the league.
Despite only playing seven games while much of the NFL has played eight, the Texans’ 1,302 rush yards allowed are 50 more than any other team. The rest of the league is well aware of Houston’s struggles stopping the run, as they have also seen the most rushing attempts in football.
The Texans have had an even harder time containing running backs, specifically. Houston has given up over 1,100 yards to RBs, a giant jump above Green Bay’s 957 allowed, despite the Packers playing one more game.
Miles Sanders can take full advantage, as the Eagles gameplan should be running the ball down Houston’s throat. Sanders sits seventh in the NFL in rushing with 563 yards, and he’s gone over 79 in three of his past four games. He should substantially add to those impressive numbers tonight.
As two-touchdown favorites, the Eagles should get ahead early and build a big lead which will further their case for keeping the ball on the ground for much of the game.
QB Davis Mills Under 210.5 Passing Yards (-115)
As bad as the Texans have been stopping the run, Philadelphia has been as good against the pass. The Eagles have allowed the fourth-fewest air yards per game at 183.4 and rank third, holding opposing quarterbacks to just a 58.4 completion rate.
The success of Philly’s pass D can be attributed to a talented secondary and a punishing defensive line. Philadelphia is second in the league with ten interceptions, and their 23 sacks rank fifth.
They are also just outside the top five in QB knockdowns and pressures and rank second with 45 pass deflections. Their ability to get to the quarterback and limit pass-catching opportunities have propelled Philly’s D to the lowest opposing QB rating at just 67.6.
If Davis Mills wasn’t already concerned, he should be now. Mills’s second year has not been successful, as the sophomore pivot is sporting just an 81.9 QB rating, one of the worst in the league. The Stanford alum has thrown just two more touchdowns than interceptions and has gone under 200-yards passing three times this season.
While the Texans will likely be forced to air it out, falling behind early, that doesn’t mean those passes will be successful. I’ll side with Mills throwing interceptions and having pass deflections over completions and yards on Thursday night.
Honorable Mentions: Davis Mills to Throw Interception (-205), Jalen Hurts Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-114), Brandin Cooks Under 56.5 receiving yards (-114), Miles Sanders Anytime Touchdown (-110), Miles Sanders Most Rushing Yards of Game (-130)
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