TNF Player Props: Talkin' Turkey in Minnesota

Another 3-2 week coming out of Mexican Monday Night Football. We were just two plays away from our second perfect 5-0 performance in our last three games. George Kittle just missed his receptions over while Jimmy G was a Kittle deep pass down the middle from going over his 250-yard prop.

Still, we’re coming into this New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings Thanksgiving night game when most of you will be in turkey comas, 11-4 over our last three Primetime performances. The lovin’ is in the oven so let’s cook once again tonight.

All odds and props are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

QB Mac Jones Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-120)

While the Minnesota Vikings have lost only twice this season, their secondary is certainly not to thank for its first-half success. In fact, Minnesota is one of the worst teams defending the pass in the league. The Vikes are giving up 267.3 pass yards per game, second-most in the NFL. Minnesota also ranks in the league’s bottom ten in opposing QB rating (94.7), completions (24.3), and attempts (35.2) allowed per game. Need more? How about Minny’s 69% opposing completion percentage, the second-worst mark in the league. Bottom line, the Vikings have not been good against quarterbacks. Enter Mac Jones.

Jones is coming off his best start of the year, despite having trouble putting points up on the board against the New York Jets last week. The former Crimson Tide star completed over 85% of his passes for 246 yards and a season-best 104.6 QB rating. Most importantly, for our purposes, Jones went over this completions number by hitting 23 passes. The 24-year-old has gone above 20.5 in five of his six full games this season. The one miss, a 20-completion performance in a 26-3 win over the Indianapolis Colts a few weeks ago.

Minnesota is much better against the run than the pass, so the Pats will be better served to exploit the Vikings’ secondary and utilize Jones’s efficiency.

9 Bullets Why Jones Goes Over 20.5 Pass Completions

  • Mac Jones has beat the Over for pass completions in each of his last 2 games.
  • Mac Jones has beat the Over for pass completions in 3 of his last 4 games.
  • Mac Jones has beat the Over for pass completions in 5 of 6 games (83%) this season.
  • Mac Jones has completed Over 20.5 passes in 2 of his last 3 games.
  • Mac Jones has completed Over 20.5 passes in 3 of his last 5 games.
  • Mac Jones has completed Over 20.5 passes in 71% (5/7) of games this season.
  • The Vikings have allowed 23.3 pass completions per game over their last 3 games.
  • The Vikings have allowed 26.2 pass completions per game over their last 5 games.
  • Mac Jones is averaging 22.3 pass completions per game over his last 3 games.

RB Dalvin Cook Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-111) 

While much of the headlines may go to quarterback Kirk Cousins and dynamic wide receiver Justin Jefferson, Dalvin Cook is in the midst of another fantastic season in Minnesota. Cook sits sixth in the NFL rushing race with 799 yards, ranking him second among NFC backs. The Florida State alum is also among the NFL’s top-ten running backs with 5.1 yards per carry.

Cook has gone under 70 yards in a game just twice this year, one of which was a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, where the Vikes fell behind early and abandoned the run giving Cook just six carries. He’s gone over our needed number of 75.5 yards in six of his past eight while just missing out on seven with a 72-yard performance last week in a blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys. On the season, the 27-year-old hit 90+ yards in five games, which includes a pair 0f 100-yard performances.

It won’t be a walk in the park against a Patriots defense that is pretty good at everything. That said, if there is one weaker spot with the Pats, it’s playing the run. New England sits in the middle of the pack giving up 4.5 yards per carry while allowing 114.5 rush yards per game, which ranks 12th in the league.

They are much better at stopping the air attack, as New England allows the second-fewest completions (18.0) and fourth-fewest passing yards (188.3) per game while holding opposing quarterbacks to the lowest completion percentage in the NFL (55.7%).

Minnesota is best off committing to the ground game and feeding their superstar back as much as possible on Thanksgiving night.

5 Bullets Why Cook Goes Over 75.5 Rushing Yards

  • Dalvin Cook has rushed for Over 74.5 yards in 70% (7/10) of games this season.
  • Dalvin Cook is averaging 79.3 rushing yards per game over his last 3 games.
  • Dalvin Cook is averaging 85.2 rushing yards per game over his last 5 games.
  • Dalvin Cook is averaging 79.9 rushing yards per game this season.
  • Dalvin Cook has rushed for Over 74.5 yards in 3 of his last 5 games.

Honorable Mentions:  Dalvin Cook Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-115), Hunter Henry Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-118), Justin Jefferson Under 86.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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