Twitter Answers: Making DFS Better, Allen Robinson And Carlos Gonzalez Is Back
We get deep into some movies this week, including San Andreas with The Rock and the Top 10 ways it could have been better. We talk some Fantasy Football sleepers… yes, already. I even attempt to give a player a nickname while asking the Twitterverse for some help on that one.
— Jeffrey La Croix (@excelsior98) May 26, 2015
One day. One day, I will have rid all Fantasy Football of kickers. I've done it in my hometown league for years, we've eliminated them from FLEX (Fantasy League of Experts) and heck, even DraftKings doesn't use them in their games. They're pointless, even with the new rule. We all pick them in the last round and/or spend one dollar on them. We drop them during bye weeks, and a five-FG game can turn a win into a loss any given week from some barely-owned kicker with no reasonable data to back up his performance. I've yet to find anyone who truly enjoys using kickers and/or has a viable argument for keeping them in roster setups.
Speaking of changes being needed. In this day and age, the majority of Fantasy Baseball players know that 1) predicting wins is fruitless and 2) that using Quality Starts (QS) is a much better method. Of all Fantasy sports, the only player stat where a player doesn't have full control over the result is the Wins category. A pitcher can lose his win due to errors or the bullpen. Heck, they don't even have to be in the game to lose the win. However, if a pitcher goes six-plus innings with three earned runs or less, he gets the quality start, no ifs, ands or buts. Even if errors allow more than three runs but only three were earned, boom, the pitcher still gets a quality start.
So, if more and more Fantasy leagues are turning to quality starts instead of wins, why don't DraftKings, FanDuel, etc. do the same? Is there anything more tilting than watching your great pick at pitcher lose out on significant DFS points because the team blew it for him? We spend a significant amount of time researching the best plays every day, and like the pitcher, we can lose out because of someone else's doing. C'mon DFS sites, join the seasonal setups and move to the better stat.
— Jake Ciely (@allinkid) May 27, 2015
This is another example of the problems with time travel (and why it will never happen). Let's stick with the Terminator movies. If anyone or anything (John Connor, Terminator, etc.) succeeds in eliminating Skynet and stopping the end of the world, then the future where they were sent back in time would never happen. So you can't actually ever succeed. It's the same in any time travel movie. Once you succeed in changing the future, there is no reason for the future person to travel back to warn the past. And on top of that for the whole time travel never happening thing… well, you can't go to the future because it hasn't happened yet. You can't go to the past either, because once you're in the past, the future hasn't happened again, which means the future to travel back from doesn't exist now. Mind blown enough?
I hope Steven Matz uses The Flash for his nickname just so I can say I started it. Truthfully though, do you have any suggestions? I obviously stuck with the superhero theme given the Dark Knight for Matt Harvey and Thor for Noah Syndergaard. As I said in my original tweet, Matz resembles the Grant Gustin a bit, and he's plays Barry Allen/The Flash on the CW show (terrific show by the way. Watch it!). Matz is also a flamethrower, as his fastball has hit 99 MPH. So, why not The Flash?
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) May 28, 2015
Allen Robinson needs more love, as you can see in two different Twitter mentions. This kid is a terrific talent, and we'd easily be talking about him near or within the Top 20-25 receivers for 2015 if he didn't get hurt. I'm telling you to get on board now. Apparently, Jon Moore, Matt Harmon and Ty Miller will do enough damage (in a good way) to his draft stock that you won't be getting Robinson anywhere near this low come August… and rightfully so.
Robinson has the size, strength and speed needed to be a No. 1 receiver for a NFL team, and he will turn into just that for the Jaguars this season. On top of that, ARob will see plenty of targets per game (8.7 from Week 2 on, last year) which gives him a high floor. Go watch his touchdowns against the Browns and Dolphins last year. Trust me, it's good stuff.
I wanted Josh Hill - two picks - should forfeit due to "pausing" https://t.co/P5E8YxEeiI
— Ryan Fowler (@FOXSportsFowler) May 29, 2015
Speaking of undervalued players, I took Josh Hill in Round 13 of the Football Diehards magazine draft (make sure you pick up a copy… corporate promo alert). That won't happen in August. When it comes to tight ends this year, the position is actually extremely deep once you get past the obvious Top 4: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce. For example, Heath Miller, Kyle Rudolph and Dwayne Allen barely crack the Top 20, and as of today, Charles Clay and Eric Ebron sit outside that group.
I have Hill at 12, as people need to remember that Drew Brees still passes a ton (tied Ben Roethlisberger for the league lead at 4,952 yards). Brees also loves his tight ends in the red zone, and with Graham gone, Hill stands to benefit a ton. Look at last year. Hill had five touchdowns in limited action. You don't think he could easily double that as the team's leading tight end option? Cases like Hill, Robinson, several of the rookie running backs, etc. give you the benefit of drafting early. I always preach waiting until after Week 3 of the preseason, but if you're going to draft early, do it before the end of July so you can grab tons of value picks and sleepers others won't know about yet.
If you haven't played Fantasy Movies yet, you should. It is quite easy and fun. You simply fill up eight screens with movies to generate the most revenue. You could make all eight screens the same movie or mix and match and even leave some blank. We were talking about San Andreas, which I unfortunately only used once, as Matthew Berry was correct and the best lineup used two screens of the movie. Looking at the crowd in my theater, I wouldn't have guessed it opened big, as it was two-thirds empty. Besides the fun of playing at fantasymovieleague.com, while watching San Andreas, I came up with a few ways it could have been better.
Full Spoilers ahead. Do not read if you haven't seen the movie or don't want it spoiled.
You've been warned.
Last chance. SPOILERS! Okay, it's on you now…
San Andreas starred The Rock. Forget the Dwayne Johnson nonsense. After all, this was your standard "end of the world," popcorn, weak side story, summer fun movie. It had all of your clichés: Earth-shattering destruction including the Golden Gate Bridge, jilted married couple getting back together, no one listening to the science guy and death-cheating feats galore. The Rock did a good job, but the movie should have milked that for all its worth.
1) There were no "Jabronis" or "Candy asses" or "Rudy poo candy asses" the entire movie! Fail.
2) Opening scene when they're rescuing the car on the cliff, we had our first perfect opportunity for an "It Doesn't Matter" from The Rock. When the co-pilot said, "I don't see a way in"… "IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOU THINK!"
3) When The Rock opens the mail to find divorce papers, how did he not give the People's Eyebrow and then say, "You want to go one…on…one…with the great one?!"
4) After The Rock rescues his wife and the daughter is on the radio talking to them. She asks how she's with her dad. The Rock should have said, "Because I'm Jabroni-beating, pie-eating, trailblazing, eyebrow-raising, talking is done, you're out of your class, this earthquake ain't nothin', The Rock is whopping its ass!"
5) That guy who stuck a gun to The Rock's head trying to steal the truck? Rock Bottom that sum-bitch! How did we make it nearly two hours without a Rock Bottom?!
6) When The Rock and his wife screech to a halt before falling into the San Andreas fault chasm and then get out to look, The Rock should have stood at the edge and done his nose-in-the-air sniff face. Then when she asked, "What is it?" He could have said, "The San Andreas fault… if ya smeellllllll what the earthquake… is… cookin'!"
7) In the plane before The Rock and his wife take off, they have a heart-to-heart about their dead daughter. She asks The Rock about it. The writers whiffed big time here. The Rock should have followed up his thoughts with, "What do you think about our daughter's death." And then she says, "Well, I've bee…" And then… "IT DOESN'T MATTER WHAT YOU THINK!" from The Rock. Cruel, but perfect.
8) After The Rock gives up on CPR to his daughter before the cliché "one more try" a minute later that always works to resuscitate the person, the last try should have been a People's Elbow driven into his daughter's chest. Heck, that should have been the first move, as it would have worked immediately.
9) At the end, as the family and random "I met you today, survived a disaster and now love you" boyfriend and brother look out over the destruction, instead of the American Flag being on the Golden Gate Bridge remains, The Rock should have propped his leg on the barrier and held the flag like he used to hold the WWE Title.
10) When the wife says, "What do we do now?" during the same end of movie scene, we should have gotten one more perfect, "IT DOESN'T MATTER!!!"
Done. San Andreas movie? Infinitely better.
PAVE Your Way to Success
Here the section where we'll be following PAVE (Predictive AVErage) all year. Click here for the full explanation/breakdown and why it can be the key to winning. (Hint: it predicts players' averages similar to how SOBB predicts the success of pitchers). Each week will focus on significant players and outliers.
Maikel Franco, PHI (.194/.284) - Franco started fairly hot with a .286 AVG, .543 SLG%, two homers, seven runs and seven RBIs in his first nine games. Since then, Franco is just 2-for-28 with one RBI and no other counting stat. Franco is better than that, and it's why the Phillies called him up. Few, if any, rookie hitters hit great out of the gate and through the entire season. Franco will adjust and return to being a valuable asset, as his BABIP has simply been way too unlucky so far at just .196.
Chase Utley, PHI (.188/.282) - We're returning to Utley, as we hit on him weeks ago, but even I was starting to question what PAVE was telling us. Since May 15, Utley is hitting .340, has scored six times and have driven in six. Utley's LD% is 25.6 over that span, and it's near 20 for the season. The BABIP is still unluckily low at .201, so as PAVE told us a few weeks ago and is still telling us today, Utley isn't washed up yet.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL (.219/.293) - Just as with Utley, PAVE suggested for us to have faith, and again as with Utley, it's been very hard with CarGo. I don't know what it is about mid-May, but the switch turned on for Gonzalez too, as he's hitting .266 with two homers, seven RBIs and 10 runs scored since then. It's not a .293 AVG, and I doubt we see CarGo that high ever again. However, Gonzalez looks to be rounding in to form, and his numbers are starting to reflect that.
Delino Deshields, TEX (.274/.212) - Deshields (Junior to be exact) is fast, and he can rack up plenty of stolen bases. However, he's not a .300 hitter and will have to deal with playing time issues, especially if Josh Hamilton is really this much better when in Texas. DDJ is a .230-.240 hitter at best, and has a lucky BABIP at .366, even though his speed helps him beat out some grounders for hits. The LD% is putrid (11.1) and the GB% is extreme at 65.1, so don't expect Deshields to hit above .250 with regular time.
Dee Gordon, MIA (.377/.345) - You'll still take the .300-plus average, but Gordon is more likely to hit around .300 the rest of the way. While that's still rather good and valuable, it means Gordon won't have as many runs or stolen base chances. Again, we're not talking a drastic drop, but you have to value Gordon properly, and if you can get trade value equal to a Jose Altuve of 2014 type, you should sell high.
Main Image Photo Credit: Baseball 5
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