Have you enjoyed these six-team bye weeks yet? How about the intrusive games held on another continent? Oh joy! Well, at least you can rest assured knowing that Vegas never sleeps, and the handicappers have looked at this week’s NFL matchups to give us a good idea of which Fantasy DSTs we should play in Week 10.
Fantasy owners find themselves streaming defenses more than they’d prefer to because of all the teams on bye weeks. Between last week and this week, 12 teams (12 Fantasy DSTs) will have been on a bye week.
We can look at the upcoming matchups on sites like VegasInsider.com, to find the lowest expected scoring games, and the favorites with the largest point spreads, indicating a defense that should dominate. A low-scoring game is sometimes indicative of an offense not producing, but it can also mean the opposing defense is probably picking up turnovers and sacks.
Week 10 Point Spreads and Over-Under Lines
By looking at the over-under numbers of the upcoming matchups, then subtracting the point spreads the favorite is expected to win by, we can get a good idea of how much a defense should dominate.
The numbers on the matchups are taken directly from Wednesday’s numbers at VegasInsider.com. The ownership percentages are from CBSSports.com’s Fantasy Football leagues.
Ravens DST vs. Tennessee
Owned in 82 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 44
Point spread: Ravens -9.5
Projected final score: Baltimore 27, Tennessee 17
Broncos DST at Oakland
Owned in 96 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 49
Point spread: Broncos -11.5
Projected final score: Denver 30, Oakland 18
Seahawks DST vs. N.Y. Giants
Owned in 100 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 44.5
Point spread: Seahawks -9
Projected final score: Seattle 27, N.Y. Giants 18
Cardinals DST vs. St. Louis
Owned in 95 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 43
Point spread: Seahawks -7
Projected final score: Arizona 25, St. Louis 18
Cowboys DST at Jacksonville
Owned in 65 pct of leagues
Over-under line: 44
Point spread: Cowboys -6
Projected final score: Dallas 25, Jacksonville 19
These defenses are owned in an awful lot of leagues, so it might be difficult to pick one up. They’ll be good in Daily Fantasy lineups, however. Also, you can think about grabbing the Falcons DST, as Atlanta is favored by 1.5 points despite the fact they destroyed the Buccaneers in Week 3.
You can use this same methodology going forward. Daily Fantasy Football players can also use this same concept to find the highest projected scoring offenses for stacking lineups.