Last week in this space, we talked about how much we like the Chiefs to cover the +8 line against the Patriots. Over the weekend, MyBookie.ag released Contest Game Props, which allows us to dig deeper into the Pats/Chiefs game and try to make some money off more specific prop bets.
1. CHIEFS vs PATRIOTS - MARGIN OF VICTORY
This isn't us calling for an upset, but "Chiefs win by 4-6 points" at +1600 seems too good to pass up. There's a very real chance that the Chiefs and their stout defense keep this game tight, especially with the Patriots still dealing with the loss of Julian Edelman for the season and the task of acclimating Brandin Cooks. The Chiefs do not have a pretty offense -- they let Jeremy Maclin go and will likely be starting rookie Kareem Hunt at running back. There will not be a lot of points scored in this game...at least on the Kansas City side.
But a 14-10 Chiefs win is not fully out of the question, albeit a longshot (thus the big odds). But while the masses go for a Pats romp (Pats by 22 or more has the worst odds at +200), taking the unpopular route with a close Chiefs win could work out well for the logically-sound risk.
2. CHIEFS vs PATRIOTS - FIRST SCORING PLAY
"Patriots TD pass" is the favorite at +160... and it was our gut call, as well. Some Brady screen to Dion Lewis seems too obvious. "Patriots FG" is +200. As likely as these scenarios are, they aren't much fun. And can't we figure "Chiefs TD run" at +600 has a decent chance of happening?
The Chiefs' top receiver, Tyreek Hill, ran the ball 24 times for 267 yards and three touchdowns last year. Alex Smith ran 48 times for 134 yards and five touchdowns. That's eight touchdowns from a wide receiver and quarterback before we even get into Kareem Hunt, C.J. Spiller, and Charcandrick West, who should combine for at least 300 attempts.
Our brains are saying the Pats score first with a pass, but our wallets kind of like the Kansas City rush play, which has a decent chance of happening and sits with very nice odds in this field.
3. CHIEFS vs PATRIOTS - TOTAL POINTS SCORED
We don't really think it'll end up 14-10 (although we're willing to take that shot), but it's +800 to go all-in on that supposition.
If we want to spread out the risk, though, a 29-35 total is +450. A 21-14 final still respects both teams' defenses and allows for a little more offense in a Week 1 game where both teams had plenty of time to plan for one another.
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