Week 1 NFL DFS Picks
Week 1 NFL DFS Picks
In 2013, Daily Fantasy Sports players and media were convinced that the NFL season of that year would push the industry over the top in terms of wide-spread awareness and huge dollar figure prize pools. Fast forward two years and it’s really easy to say that we undershot that forecast! The 2015 NFL season is absolutely out of control with massive payout contests. There’s a reason why you can’t turn on your TV without seeing a DraftKings or FanDuel commercial and why you can’t listen to the radio in your car without hearing a DFS promo code. There’s reason why the largest DFS sites have already spent upwards of $110,000,000 dollars this year alone on advertising. Folks, this is the year we’ve all been waiting for and it’s poised to exceed even our wildest dreams.
DraftKings alone has vowed to pay out more than $1 billion to Fantasy Football participants in 2015, a promise that will dramatically change dozens of people’s lives this year. Do you want a shot at a $2,000,000 first place prize next Sunday in the MILLIONAIRE MAKER NFL contest (10 MILLION DOLLARS will be paid out in one contest alone)? DailyRoto has been cited as the premium content service used by four separate $1,000,000 winners since 2014. Could you be the next? There’s not a better time than right now to begin the process of changing your life forever through Fantasy Football. Here’s some insight on NFL Week 1 to get you on your way!
FanDuel QB Value Play - Tyrod Taylor (BUF)
Tyrod Taylor may be a bottom tier NFL quarterback, but he’s a top tier value on FanDuel for Week 1. The perception around Taylor may be that he’s a risky option, but the truth is the floor is very high for Taylor given his $5,000 salary – the minimum for quarterbacks on FanDuel. At that salary, Taylor should meet his salary expectation (around 10-12 points) on yardage alone. The mobile QB ran for over 100 yards and a score in parts of three pre-season games, and 40 yards on the ground is a reasonable expectation for him. The Bills will be a run heavy offense, and offensive coordinator Greg Roman has experience with mobile quarterbacks, having developed Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco. With 40 yards rushing and 150 yards passing (any QB in today’s NFL walks into this amount of passing yards, barring injury) as a baseline, Taylor is already at 10 FanDuel points. Any yardage or scores beyond that is free profit. The only way this goes south is if Taylor gets injured or has an extremely turnover ridden game without contributing to any scores. We put the probabilities on those two events pretty low. Furthermore, with the soft Week 1 pricing, using Taylor at QB allows you to pay up for the top options at both RB and WR.
DraftKings WR Value Play - Davante Adams (GB)
Davante Adams steps into a starting role for the Packers with Jordy Nelson out for the season. While there are some efficiency concerns with Adams, the highly thought of sophomore is in too good of a situation to pass up for $4,400 on DraftKings Week 1. With Nelson absent, 28 percent of the team’s targets and 16 percent of their red zone opportunities are freed up from a season ago. The majority of that volume is expected to go Adams’ way, especially early in the season as the wide receiver depth chart is a bit uncertain. James Jones was just signed this past week, and young wide receivers Ty Montgomery and Jeff Janis are unproven commodities. It’s going to be difficult for Adams not to meet salary expectations given the expected bump up in volume, and the quality will be there too. Adams has the most efficient quarterback in the NFL throwing him the ball, and they’ll face a very bad Chicago Bears defense. This defense finished last season ranked dead last in the NFL in weighted defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders, while the Packers offense finished first. Talk about a mismatch. Now the Bears are transitioning to a 3-4 defense that their personnel isn’t suited for and have released CB Tim Jennings. That leaves the sophomore Kyle Fuller (the second worst cover CB last year according to Pro Football Focus) and Alan Ball (negative pass coverage grade last season) as the team’s starting corners on the outside. The opportunity for Adams in Week 1 at this low price trumps any concerns over his skill set.
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