Week 11 Rankings By Matchups: Larry Fitzgerald’s Value Goes Boom
Some friendly advice before we get into the Week 11 rankings based on Defense Adjusted Fantasy Points (DAFP). Now that we're nearly through the byes, it's time to dump those RB4/5s and WR4/5s for handcuffs and future matchups. I say future matchups because, well, it's a matchup-based column. Look ahead to the playoffs for players or DSTs facing a nice three-game set in Weeks 14-16. It's much better to have upside players and handcuffs than those consistent, mildly-productive backups who will never enter your starting lineup anyway. If you start now, you'll get the jump on everyone else to make sure you have the highest potential come Fantasy Football playoff time.
|Quarterback Points Allowed|
|1||Minnesota Vikings||CHI||21.3||15||Tennessee Titans||PIT||16.4|
|2||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||WSH||20.1||16||Indianapolis Colts||NE||16.4|
|3||Atlanta Falcons||CAR||18.5||17||Philadelphia Eagles||GB||16.2|
|4||Washington Redskins||TB||18.5||18||New Orleans Saints||CIN||15.9|
|5||Green Bay Packers||PHI||18.5||19||Pittsburgh Steelers||TEN||15.9|
|6||Denver Broncos||STL||18.3||20||Detroit Lions||ARI||15.8|
|7||St. Louis Rams||DEN||18.1||21||Kansas City Chiefs||SEA||15.5|
|8||Oakland Raiders||SAD||18.0||22||Seattle Seahawks||KC||15.4|
|9||San Francisco 49ers||NYG||17.9||23||New York Giants||SAF||15.2|
|10||Cincinnati Bengals||NO||17.6||24||Miami Dolphins||BUF||15.1|
|11||New England Patriots||IND||17.4||25||Chicago Bears||MIN||14.8|
|12||San Diego Chargers||OAK||17.3||26||Houston Texans||CLE||14.8|
|13||Carolina Panthers||ATL||17.3||27||Buffalo Bills||MIA||14.3|
|14||Cleveland Browns||HOU||16.8||28||Arizona Cardinals||DET||13.6|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
Sure, it was a great Fantasy performance, but just how good is Mark Sanchez? The world wants to know. If you believe me, you would trust that Sanchez is a QB1 for the rest of the season. If you're still not convinced, you should at least use Sanchez over a similar value quarterback like Ryan Tannehill. It's not that I don't like Tannehill; I'm actually quite fond of him (not quite to Jon Gruden levels) due to his rushing value.
However, Tannehill faces the Bills this week while Sanchez gets the Packers. The Packers are middle of the pack in DAFP, while the Bills are the fifth-stingiest with just 15.1 DAFP. The Eagles’ high-octane offense will need to fire away to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and company. Both the matchup and Sanchez's impressive performance since coming in for Nick Foles have him as the better play than Tan-NEE-hill.
Other matchup-boosted QBs: Teddy Bridgewater, Josh McCown, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning
|Running Back Points Allowed|
|1||Carolina Panthers||ATL||24.2||15||Green Bay Packers||PHI||18.9|
|2||San Francisco 49ers||NYG||24.1||16||Houston Texans||CLE||18.6|
|3||San Diego Chargers||OAK||23.6||17||Minnesota Vikings||CHI||18.0|
|4||New Orleans Saints||CIN||23.3||18||Tennessee Titans||PIT||17.7|
|5||Indianapolis Colts||NE||22.2||19||Buffalo Bills||MIA||17.6|
|6||Pittsburgh Steelers||TEN||22.0||20||Arizona Cardinals||DET||16.0|
|7||Atlanta Falcons||CAR||21.9||21||St. Louis Rams||DEN||15.9|
|8||Chicago Bears||MIN||21.4||22||Kansas City Chiefs||SEA||15.9|
|9||Cleveland Browns||HOU||20.3||23||Denver Broncos||STL||15.9|
|10||Washington Redskins||TB||19.7||24||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||WSH||15.8|
|11||Cincinnati Bengals||NO||19.7||25||Seattle Seahawks||KC||15.6|
|12||Oakland Raiders||SAD||19.2||26||New York Giants||SAF||15.4|
|13||Philadelphia Eagles||GB||18.9||27||Miami Dolphins||BUF||15.2|
|14||New England Patriots||IND||18.9||28||Detroit Lions||ARI||14.7|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
Not only are the Cardinals the toughest matchup in the Week 11 rankings by matchup with 14.7 DAFP, but the Lions’ backfield is anything but a clear picture.
A week after impressing, Theo Riddick was back on the pine for most of the game with Reggie Bush back, yet saved his day with a touchdown. Joique Bell continues to be the most consistent play, but even he is unreliable, especially in tough matchups such as versus the Dolphins last week. Meanwhile, Ryan Mathews returns (expected) for the Chargers, and he couldn’t ask for a much better matchup. The Raiders are the third-most favorable matchup and allow 23.6 DAFP. Branden Oliver was quick good in his stead, but the lead job belongs to Mathews, as Oliver should fill the Danny Woodhead role. Mathews started the season with an admirable performance against those tough Cardinals, as he notched 12.0 Fantasy Points (FP) with 60 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Bell has three games with 6.1 FP or less and just three over 9.7. That backfield is a headache, and so is the matchup with the Cardinals.
Other matchup-boosted RBs: Panthers (ha, good luck here), Frank Gore, Mark Ingram, Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson, Le'Veon Bell, Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Alfred Morris
|Wide Receiver Points Allowed|
|1||Washington Redskins||TB||28.1||15||Miami Dolphins||BUF||22.3|
|2||Cleveland Browns||HOU||27.0||16||Pittsburgh Steelers||TEN||21.7|
|3||Cincinnati Bengals||NO||25.5||17||New England Patriots||IND||21.6|
|4||Green Bay Packers||PHI||25.5||18||Tennessee Titans||PIT||21.6|
|5||Denver Broncos||STL||25.4||19||Chicago Bears||MIN||21.2|
|6||Atlanta Falcons||CAR||25.0||20||St. Louis Rams||DEN||21.0|
|7||Carolina Panthers||ATL||24.3||21||San Diego Chargers||OAK||21.0|
|8||Detroit Lions||ARI||24.0||22||Seattle Seahawks||KC||20.9|
|9||Minnesota Vikings||CHI||23.5||23||San Francisco 49ers||NYG||20.8|
|10||New York Giants||SAF||22.8||24||Buffalo Bills||MIA||20.4|
|11||Oakland Raiders||SAD||22.8||25||Kansas City Chiefs||SEA||19.5|
|12||Houston Texans||CLE||22.6||26||Indianapolis Colts||NE||19.1|
|13||Philadelphia Eagles||GB||22.6||27||Arizona Cardinals||DET||18.9|
|14||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||WSH||22.5||28||New Orleans Saints||CIN||18.7|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
It seems like such a long time ago that Larry Fitzgerald was among the elite and a must-start no matter the matchup. A few years later and a new (see: much worse) quarterback for Week 11, and Fitzgerald is no more than a WR3 and a lesser play than Odell Beckham Jr. That's OBJ by the way, and not the ODB, as we'd all like to call him.
With Drew Stanton at quarterback, Fitzgerald averages more than four points less per game (9.5 versus 13.55), which is a significant drop off. In addition, the Lions rate as the second-toughest matchup with an 18.9 DAFP. The 49ers aren't as good as people think on defense, and that's especially true versus receivers, against whom they allow 22.8 DAFP. Over the last three games for OBJ, he has 26 targets, 19 receptions, 298 yards and two touchdowns - good for 44.2 Fantasy Points and good for the higher Week 11 ranking.
Other matchup-boosted WRs: Redskins, Andrew Hawkins if healthy, Bengals, Packers, Broncos, Falcons, Kelvin Benjamin, Lions
|Tight End Points Allowed|
|1||Minnesota Vikings||CHI||12.8||15||Philadelphia Eagles||GB||7.5|
|2||San Francisco 49ers||NYG||10.4||16||Atlanta Falcons||CAR||7.5|
|3||New Orleans Saints||CIN||10.0||17||Washington Redskins||TB||7.4|
|4||New England Patriots||IND||9.9||18||Arizona Cardinals||DET||7.3|
|5||Kansas City Chiefs||SEA||9.9||19||Buffalo Bills||MIA||6.7|
|6||St. Louis Rams||DEN||9.8||20||Miami Dolphins||BUF||6.7|
|7||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||WSH||9.7||21||Houston Texans||CLE||6.6|
|8||Tennessee Titans||PIT||9.4||22||Cleveland Browns||HOU||6.5|
|9||Detroit Lions||ARI||9.3||23||Carolina Panthers||ATL||6.5|
|10||Indianapolis Colts||NE||9.0||24||Chicago Bears||MIN||6.4|
|11||Pittsburgh Steelers||TEN||8.6||25||Oakland Raiders||SAD||6.4|
|12||San Diego Chargers||OAK||8.3||26||Denver Broncos||STL||6.3|
|13||New York Giants||SAF||7.9||27||Green Bay Packers||PHI||6.2|
|14||Seattle Seahawks||KC||7.8||28||Cincinnati Bengals||NO||5.5|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
I tried to warn people that Vernon Davis had no Fantasy value, but people still see the name and won't listen. Ah well.
There is actually a chance he wakes up against the Giants’ defense this week, but that's not the pairing we're going to discuss. Instead, let's talk about the long lost Kyle Rudolph, who should return this week. Owners and savvy waiver vultures, rejoice! Not only is Rudolph a TE1 to start, he returns to face the highly-exploitable Bears. The Bears are the top matchup in the Week 11 rankings and allow 2.4 more DAFP than the second place Giants. It's for that reason, and Robert Griffin's apparent dislike of Jordan Reed, that I'd play Rudy over Reed. Not only do the Bucs actually defend the tight end pretty well, Reed averages 8.0 targets, 6.7 receptions and 62 yards without RGIII and 5.6/4.3/47 with him. Griffin's return was bad news for Reed.
Other matchup-boosted TEs: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Jared Cook, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Delanie Walker
Notes: DAFP include various defense adjusted metrics in addition to FPPG.
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