Week 15 Rankings by Matchups: Eli Manning in the Playoffs?
Need more proof that Fantasy Football is a cruel mistress? If Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham didn't tick off enough owners to start, Julio Jones and Jordy Nelson buried us in bad beat stories.
The tweets started before the end of the game and continued through the night. Thank goodness for the "do not disturb" feature on phones. I even woke up to my friend's angry text messages. "He had a 27 point lead with Randall Cobb to play versus only Julio and saw that lead disappear as Jones booted him from the playoffs." I cleaned that up for your sensitive eyes. Truthfully though, while the rage may seem higher than ever, it's the same every year.
I'm not sure you can put any of those big four above into the Muck Pile, but I'm sure many Graham owners would. Okay, okay. If Graham doesn't produce against the Bears this week, I'll allow it. However, until that happens, I think we can agree that Ryan Tannehill, Gio Bernard, Reggie Bush (should be there already), Alfred Morris, Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, Larry Donnell and Delanie Walker should be thrown into the pile. The worst part about many of these players is that once you give up, they'll go out and have a big game.
For those of you still alive - and without broken living room parts - the Week 15 rankings by matchups are here.
For those of you out of it, use these to help build a great DFS lineup. What better way to wipe away the tears than with some Benjamins?
|Quarterback Points Allowed|
|1||New York Giants||WSH||20.1||17||New York Jets||TEN||16.5|
|2||New Orleans Saints||CHI||19.6||18||Baltimore Ravens||JAX||16.4|
|3||Chicago Bears||NO||19.4||19||Miami Dolphins||NE||16.3|
|4||Tennessee Titans||NYJ||19.1||20||Houston Texans||IND||16.2|
|5||Dallas Cowboys||PHI||18.6||21||Arizona Cardinals||STL||15.9|
|6||Jacksonville Jaguars||BAL||18.3||22||Indianapolis Colts||HOU||15.8|
|7||Atlanta Falcons||PIT||18.0||23||St. Louis Rams||ARI||15.8|
|8||San Diego Chargers||DEN||17.9||24||Detroit Lions||MIN||15.7|
|9||Philadelphia Eagles||DAL||17.4||25||Oakland Raiders||KC||15.5|
|10||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||CAR||17.3||26||Cleveland Browns||CIN||15.4|
|11||Washington Redskins||NYG||17.2||27||Cincinnati Bengals||CLE||15.0|
|12||Pittsburgh Steelers||ATL||17.1||28||New England Patriots||MIA||14.7|
|13||Buffalo Bills||GB||17.1||29||Seattle Seahawks||SAF||14.6|
|14||Carolina Panthers||TB||17.0||30||Minnesota Vikings||DET||14.4|
|15||Kansas City Chiefs||OAK||16.7||31||Green Bay Packers||BUF||14.1|
|16||Denver Broncos||SAD||16.7||32||San Francisco 49ers||SEA||13.6|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
Before I even get into this week's quarterback debate, let me mention that I know most of you have long ago tossed this player into the Muck Pile. So step on up Eli Manning. Now, I am not advocating starting Manning over trusted options. However, if your other quarterback is the oft-mucked Colin Kaepernick or Andy Dalton, Manning is the choice this week. The Redskins have the highest Defense Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed mark of 20.1. They've given up 28 passing touchdowns with just five interceptions and 20.9 FPPG. Manning torched the Skins the first time around - in Washington mind you - with 300 passing yards, five touchdowns (one rushing!) and 33.1 FP.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks are back to their dominating ways on defense and sit atop the Week 15 rankings in difficulty with a 13.6 DAFPA. Dalton's opponent, the Browns, have a 15.0 DAFPA. Kaep hasn't topped 15.3 FP since Week 6, and Dalton has more sub-15.0 FP games (six) than 20-plus games (four), which includes three with 6.1 or less. People love to hate him, but Eli Manning has solid potential this week.
Other matchup-boosted QBs: Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Jake Locker, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers
|Running Back Points Allowed|
|1||Pittsburgh Steelers||ATL||23.5||17||Buffalo Bills||GB||18.1|
|2||Cleveland Browns||CIN||22.8||18||Cincinnati Bengals||CLE||18.0|
|3||Chicago Bears||NO||22.8||19||Indianapolis Colts||HOU||17.9|
|4||Kansas City Chiefs||OAK||22.7||20||Denver Broncos||SAD||17.3|
|5||New York Jets||TEN||22.7||21||Oakland Raiders||KC||17.2|
|6||Baltimore Ravens||JAX||21.7||22||Atlanta Falcons||PIT||17.1|
|7||Houston Texans||IND||20.7||23||Seattle Seahawks||SAF||16.3|
|8||Detroit Lions||MIN||20.3||24||Tennessee Titans||NYJ||16.2|
|9||Washington Redskins||NYG||20.3||25||San Francisco 49ers||SEA||15.9|
|10||Carolina Panthers||TB||19.8||26||Green Bay Packers||BUF||15.7|
|11||Dallas Cowboys||PHI||19.2||27||San Diego Chargers||DEN||15.7|
|12||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||CAR||19.0||28||Arizona Cardinals||STL||15.6|
|13||Philadelphia Eagles||DAL||18.7||29||Minnesota Vikings||DET||15.5|
|14||New Orleans Saints||CHI||18.5||30||St. Louis Rams||ARI||15.3|
|15||Miami Dolphins||NE||18.5||31||New York Giants||WSH||14.8|
|16||New England Patriots||MIA||18.4||32||Jacksonville Jaguars||BAL||14.2|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
Look, I loathe the Shanahan family as much as anyone does. Does it infuriate me to watch Kyle Shanahan tinker with his running backs every week, not use his best talent (Isaiah Crowell) consistently and/or base usage off "good practices"? Of course!
However, even if Crowell and Terrance West split carries again this week, Crowell is still the better option than Denard Robinson. Now don't go mucking DRob yet. In Week 16, he draws the envious matchup of the Titans. For the Week 15 rankings though, no one has it tougher, as the Ravens have a measly 14.2 DAFPA, which include only four rushing touchdowns allowed. Crowell and West not only get a Bengals team with a 22.8 DAFPA, but Johnny Manziel should open up defenses even more due to his rushing ability. Crowell is the 13th best running back since Week 10, and the Bengals have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns this year. It's the Crow's turn to eat.
Other matchup-boosted RBs: Le'Veon Bell, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Chris Johnson/Chris Ivory, Justin Forsett, Arian Foster, Joique Bell, Alfred Morris
|Wide Receiver Points Allowed|
|1||Jacksonville Jaguars||BAL||27.5||17||St. Louis Rams||ARI||22.7|
|2||Indianapolis Colts||HOU||26.9||18||Cincinnati Bengals||CLE||22.7|
|3||Buffalo Bills||GB||25.8||19||Detroit Lions||MIN||22.3|
|4||Pittsburgh Steelers||ATL||25.5||20||New England Patriots||MIA||22.0|
|5||Chicago Bears||NO||25.2||21||San Diego Chargers||DEN||21.6|
|6||Dallas Cowboys||PHI||25.1||22||Green Bay Packers||BUF||21.6|
|7||New York Giants||WSH||24.5||23||Washington Redskins||NYG||21.4|
|8||Tennessee Titans||NYJ||24.5||24||Oakland Raiders||KC||21.0|
|9||New Orleans Saints||CHI||24.5||25||Philadelphia Eagles||DAL||20.9|
|10||Carolina Panthers||TB||24.3||26||Minnesota Vikings||DET||20.7|
|11||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||CAR||24.0||27||Seattle Seahawks||SAF||20.3|
|12||Arizona Cardinals||STL||23.6||28||Houston Texans||IND||20.2|
|13||Atlanta Falcons||PIT||23.5||29||Miami Dolphins||NE||20.1|
|14||New York Jets||TEN||23.4||30||Kansas City Chiefs||OAK||20.0|
|15||Denver Broncos||SAD||22.9||31||Cleveland Browns||CIN||19.1|
|16||Baltimore Ravens||JAX||22.8||32||San Francisco 49ers||SEA||17.3|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
What do the Week 15 rankings tell us about receivers? Something quite surprising. You want Marqise Lee over anyone from San Francisco. This week is as bad as it gets for 49ers' receivers, as they face a Seahawks team with a DAFPA nearly two points lower than anyone else. As good as Anquan Boldin has been, the Seahawks have given up just five receiving touchdowns. Since Week 5, only Odell Beckham and Preston Parker (thanks to a touchdown, but still, go figure) have topped 9.4 FP against the Seahawks.
As for Lee, he has 21 targets, 14 receptions 194 yards and 25.8 FP over the last three games and faces a Ravens defense with an enormous 27.5 DAFPA. The Ravens have given up three times as many receiving touchdowns (15), and their FPPG allowed jumps from 28.2 to 34.7 over the last four weeks! There is way more upside with the Jags and Lee.
Other matchup-boosted WRs: Colts, Sammy Watkins/Robert Woods, Antonio Brown/Martavis Bryant, Alshon Jeffery/Marquess Wilson, Dez Bryant, Odell Beckham, Saints
|Tight End Points Allowed|
|1||New Orleans Saints||CHI||10.6||17||Baltimore Ravens||JAX||7.8|
|2||New York Giants||WSH||10.5||18||Buffalo Bills||GB||7.3|
|3||Philadelphia Eagles||DAL||10.1||19||Jacksonville Jaguars||BAL||7.2|
|4||Houston Texans||IND||10.1||20||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||CAR||7.2|
|5||Tennessee Titans||NYJ||9.9||21||Carolina Panthers||TB||7.1|
|6||Atlanta Falcons||PIT||9.2||22||Oakland Raiders||KC||7.0|
|7||St. Louis Rams||ARI||9.2||23||Cincinnati Bengals||CLE||6.5|
|8||San Diego Chargers||DEN||8.8||24||Chicago Bears||NO||6.4|
|9||Miami Dolphins||NE||8.7||25||Dallas Cowboys||PHI||6.2|
|10||Washington Redskins||NYG||8.6||26||Pittsburgh Steelers||ATL||6.2|
|11||New York Jets||TEN||8.4||27||Detroit Lions||MIN||6.1|
|12||Seattle Seahawks||SAF||8.3||28||Arizona Cardinals||STL||6.0|
|13||San Francisco 49ers||SEA||8.3||29||Denver Broncos||SAD||6.0|
|14||Cleveland Browns||CIN||8.1||30||Indianapolis Colts||HOU||6.0|
|15||Kansas City Chiefs||OAK||8.0||31||Green Bay Packers||BUF||5.8|
|16||Minnesota Vikings||DET||7.9||32||New England Patriots||MIA||5.7|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
I'm not intentionally double dipping with the Giants, but as mentioned with Eli, the last game against the Redskins was a big one for the GMen. That includes Larry Donnell, as the tight end grabbed headlines with three touchdowns. Donnell has been somewhat hit or miss since then, but the Redskins are second in the Week 15 rankings with a 10.5 DAFPA. The Redskins are tied for second in tight end touchdowns at 11 (thanks partly to Donnell) and lead the league in FPPG allowed at 12.9 over the last four weeks. All of this makes Donnell the better bet over either Colts tight end. Granted, Dwayne Allen or Coby Fleener could have a good day, even in a tough matchup. Even if one does though, you're adding in the risk of guessing which tight end it will be. Take a tight end that is already in a coin flip on his own team with a 3.5 lower DAFPA? No thanks, as we'll likely pick the wrong one and start trashing our houses again.
Other matchup-boosted TEs: Jimmy Graham, Zach Ertz, Delanie Walker, Jared Cook, Antonio Gates, Charles Clay, Jordan Reed (as long as RGIII doesn't start)
Notes: DAFPA include various defense adjusted metrics in addition to FPPG.
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