Week 16 Rankings by Matchups: 21 Facts You Need to Know for a Championship
It's Championship Week! "But our leagues play Week 17." No. Shut it. It's Championship Week. There is no such thing as Week 17 unless it's DFS. If you're somehow involved in Week 17 games, you need to find a new league or commissioner.
This being Championship Week, we’re taking a different angle. Normally, the Week 16 rankings based on Defense Adjusted Fantasy Points (DAFP) would provide "heads up" breakdowns. With so many titles on the line and just one matchup not helping as many as it did when everyone was alive, I feel the Christmas spirit and will give you several players in a bullet point (sort of) analysis.
Plus, that will help more of the DFS players so you too can win a million dollars like our man Drew Dinkmeyer.
|Quarterback Points Allowed|
|1||Philadelphia Eagles||WSH||20.2||17||Jacksonville Jaguars||TEN||16.2|
|2||Detroit Lions||CHI||20.0||18||New York Jets||NE||16.2|
|3||Washington Redskins||PHI||19.4||19||Tennessee Titans||JAX||16.2|
|4||Atlanta Falcons||NO||19.0||20||Baltimore Ravens||HOU||15.7|
|5||New England Patriots||NYJ||18.7||21||Dallas Cowboys||IND||15.5|
|6||Kansas City Chiefs||PIT||18.1||22||New York Giants||STL||15.3|
|7||Houston Texans||BAL||17.5||23||Miami Dolphins||MIN||15.3|
|8||Cincinnati Bengals||DEN||17.4||24||Seattle Seahawks||ARI||15.3|
|9||Green Bay Packers||TB||17.1||25||Pittsburgh Steelers||KC||15.2|
|10||St. Louis Rams||NYG||17.0||26||Minnesota Vikings||MIA||14.9|
|11||Buffalo Bills||OAK||17.0||27||Denver Broncos||CIN||14.7|
|12||Cleveland Browns||CAR||16.9||28||San Diego Chargers||SAF||14.4|
|13||New Orleans Saints||ATL||16.9||29||Chicago Bears||DET||14.4|
|14||Indianapolis Colts||DAL||16.6||30||Carolina Panthers||CLE||14.4|
|15||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||GB||16.4||31||Oakland Raiders||BUF||13.7|
|16||San Francisco 49ers||SAD||16.4||32||Arizona Cardinals||SEA||13.4|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
Every quarterback facing the Redskins has thrown for at least one touchdown and topped 14.6 Fantasy Points (FP). The Skins’ defense has given up 31 passing touchdowns and intercepted the ball just five times.
The Eagles have allowed six quarterbacks to run for 20-plus yards: Andrew Luck (20), Colin Kaepernick (58), Austin Davis (30), Ryan Fitzpatrick (49), Aaron Rodgers (32) and Russell Wilson (48). Robert Griffin could easily put up the most rushing yards against the Eagles, and they’ve given up the third-most passing touchdowns (29). Still, it's RGIII and a mess in Washington.
Matt Ryan loves playing the Saints. Since 2011, Ryan is averaging 334 yards and 25.1 FP against the Saints and 275/22.2 against everyone else.
Conversely, Jay Cutler isn't as good against the Lions during that same timeframe. He has just 16.8 FPPG versus Detroit as opposed to 19.1 the rest of the time. Earlier this year, Cutler had his second-best game in that span, but he threw two picks, giving him six to his eight touchdowns.
Don’t be too afraid of the Bengals matchup for Peyton Manning, as the big names (Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Ben Roethlisberger) averaged 25.6 FPPG against them. Be more afraid of Manning's health and the team's high usage of C.J. Anderson and the run game.
The Rams haven't allowed a quarterback to top 17.5 FP since Week 7, and that was Peyton Manning. Eli Manning has 33.3 FPPG and seven touchdowns against the Redskins and just 18.8 and 19 TDs against everyone else.
Matchup-boosted QBs: Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, RGIII, Ryan, Tom Brady, Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers
|Running Back Points Allowed|
|1||New Orleans Saints||ATL||23.5||17||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||GB||18.1|
|2||Buffalo Bills||OAK||23.0||18||New York Jets||NE||18.0|
|3||Jacksonville Jaguars||TEN||22.7||19||Baltimore Ravens||HOU||17.6|
|4||Atlanta Falcons||NO||22.2||20||San Francisco 49ers||SAD||17.1|
|5||Denver Broncos||CIN||21.6||21||Kansas City Chiefs||PIT||17.0|
|6||St. Louis Rams||NYG||20.3||22||Pittsburgh Steelers||KC||16.4|
|7||Dallas Cowboys||IND||20.2||23||San Diego Chargers||SAF||16.4|
|8||Tennessee Titans||JAX||20.1||24||Arizona Cardinals||SEA||16.2|
|9||Miami Dolphins||MIN||19.8||25||New England Patriots||NYJ||15.9|
|10||Carolina Panthers||CLE||19.7||26||Oakland Raiders||BUF||15.9|
|11||Washington Redskins||PHI||19.4||27||Cincinnati Bengals||DEN||15.6|
|12||Indianapolis Colts||DAL||19.1||28||New York Giants||STL||15.6|
|13||Green Bay Packers||TB||19.1||29||Chicago Bears||DET||15.5|
|14||Cleveland Browns||CAR||18.9||30||Seattle Seahawks||ARI||14.8|
|15||Detroit Lions||CHI||18.8||31||Philadelphia Eagles||WSH||14.4|
|16||Minnesota Vikings||MIA||18.5||32||Houston Texans||BAL||14.2|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
Mark Ingram ran for 60 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons in Week 1. Since then, the only teams without a running back to top 13.9 FP were the Ravens (Justin Forsett 9.5 and Bernard Pierce stole his touchdown), the Bucs and Panthers. They've also allowed six running backs to top 20 FP.
Since Fred Jackson returned, he has 10.5, 9.7, 7.2 and 9.8 FPs, or RB20 numbers even with just one touchdown. The Raiders have only held the Patriots and Chargers (once, in Week 11) without a running back score.
Toby Gerhart put up the fifth-best rushing total against the Ravens (54 rushing yards), a team dominating running backs this year. That's the lowest a running back has run for against the Titans since Week 7, and the Titans give up 129.1 rushing YPG.
Over the last two games, LeSean McCoy has 114 rushing yards, two targets, one reception and four attempts inside the 10. Chris Polk and Darren Sproles each have two. In the two 100-plus yard games prior, McCoy had five attempts inside the 10, Sproles one and Polk none. The Redskins have allowed just 23 rushing attempts all year inside the 10 with four coming via quarterback scrambles. They've also allowed the second-fewest RB targets (75), receptions (54) and receiving yards (389).
The Rams have allowed only three 100-plus yard rushers and just one since Week 3. They've also given up just six rushing touchdowns on a mere 43 red zone RB rushing attempts.
Only four running backs have topped 10.1 FP against the Bills. They’ve also allowed a league low red zone attempts (34) and inside the 10 attempts (14)! Sorry Latavius Murray; that's insane.
Matchup-boosted RBs: Ingram, FJax, Gerhart, Steven Jackson, C.J. Anderson, Tre Mason, DeMarco Murray (or Joseph Randle), Lamar Miller, Jonathan Stewart
|Wide Receiver Points Allowed|
|1||Houston Texans||BAL||26.7||17||Tennessee Titans||JAX||22.2|
|2||Washington Redskins||PHI||26.5||18||Minnesota Vikings||MIA||22.0|
|3||Philadelphia Eagles||WSH||25.3||19||Miami Dolphins||MIN||21.9|
|4||New Orleans Saints||ATL||25.2||20||Carolina Panthers||CLE||21.7|
|5||Baltimore Ravens||HOU||25.2||21||Oakland Raiders||BUF||21.3|
|6||Atlanta Falcons||NO||25.0||22||St. Louis Rams||NYG||21.1|
|7||Green Bay Packers||TB||24.7||23||Pittsburgh Steelers||KC||21.0|
|8||Kansas City Chiefs||PIT||24.5||24||Cincinnati Bengals||DEN||21.0|
|9||Detroit Lions||CHI||24.2||25||Chicago Bears||DET||20.8|
|10||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||GB||23.9||26||New York Jets||NE||20.6|
|11||New England Patriots||NYJ||23.6||27||Indianapolis Colts||DAL||20.5|
|12||Cleveland Browns||CAR||23.4||28||San Diego Chargers||SAF||20.4|
|13||San Francisco 49ers||SAD||23.0||29||Buffalo Bills||OAK||19.8|
|14||New York Giants||STL||22.9||30||Dallas Cowboys||IND||19.8|
|15||Jacksonville Jaguars||TEN||22.7||31||Denver Broncos||CIN||18.5|
|16||Seattle Seahawks||ARI||22.4||32||Arizona Cardinals||SEA||16.8|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
Before you see the Eagles second on the DAFP Week 16 rankings and get too excited about DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, know that DJax averages 7.7 FPPG with RGIII at quarterback and 15.0 with everyone else, while Pierre Garcon averages 6.1/10.0. The Eagles have given up the most receptions of 20-plus yards (63), so there is upside, but it's risky with Griffin.
The Falcons have allowed 10 receivers to top 100 receiving yards - Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall did it together - and that includes Marques Colston going for 110 in Week 1. They’ve also allowed 70 targets and 11 receiving touchdowns in the red zone.
Julian Edelman is actually tied for fifth on the year (receivers and tight ends included) in red zone targets at 22. He's converted those into 12 receptions and four scores. The Jets have allowed 40 red zone targets with 23 being completed for nine touchdowns.
Since Week 6, four receivers have topped 39 yards against the Seahawks. Four! 39 yards! And one was only for 61 yards. They also allowed just two receiving touchdowns in that span.
The Raiders - yes, them - haven't given up a receiving touchdown since Week 11. To be fair, that includes the Chiefs (twice), Rams and 49ers, but they have allowed just nine touchdowns (third-lowest) and eight targets inside the 10 (also third-lowest).
Matchup-boosted WRs: DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson (both risky), DJax and Garcon (again, risky), Jeremy Maclin and Jordan Matthews, Marques Colston and Kenny Stills, Torrey Smith and Steve Smith, Julio Jones (if plays) and Roddy White - Harry Douglas if no Jones, Packers, Dwayne Bowe (a receiver touchdown THIS week?)
|Tight End Points Allowed|
|1||Detroit Lions||CHI||11.4||17||Denver Broncos||CIN||7.7|
|2||Philadelphia Eagles||WSH||9.9||18||Green Bay Packers||TB||7.1|
|3||Indianapolis Colts||DAL||9.9||19||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||GB||7.1|
|4||New England Patriots||NYJ||9.8||20||Houston Texans||BAL||7.0|
|5||Dallas Cowboys||IND||9.5||21||Cleveland Browns||CAR||6.8|
|6||Seattle Seahawks||ARI||8.9||22||Pittsburgh Steelers||KC||6.8|
|7||Cincinnati Bengals||DEN||8.8||23||Atlanta Falcons||NO||6.3|
|8||Kansas City Chiefs||PIT||8.6||24||Carolina Panthers||CLE||6.3|
|9||New York Jets||NE||8.5||25||Washington Redskins||PHI||6.3|
|10||St. Louis Rams||NYG||8.3||26||San Francisco 49ers||SAD||6.3|
|11||Buffalo Bills||OAK||8.2||27||Baltimore Ravens||HOU||6.2|
|12||Tennessee Titans||JAX||8.2||28||Minnesota Vikings||MIA||6.2|
|13||Jacksonville Jaguars||TEN||8.1||29||New Orleans Saints||ATL||6.2|
|14||Arizona Cardinals||SEA||7.9||30||Miami Dolphins||MIN||5.9|
|15||Chicago Bears||DET||7.9||31||New York Giants||STL||5.8|
|16||San Diego Chargers||SAF||7.7||32||Oakland Raiders||BUF||5.5|
HOLD ‘EM OR FOLD ‘EM
Dwayne Allen has been ridiculously touchdown reliant (54.9 percent of his Fantasy production), but that's not a concern against the Cowboys. The Cowboys have allowed 21 red zone targets to go for 10 touchdowns and are tied for second in DAFP for the Week 16 rankings. On top of that, Allen has turned nine red zone targets into five touchdowns. He always finds a way to have value.
The Broncos have the third-highest tight end FPPG allowed over the last three weeks at 10.6, which includes 19 receptions for 197 yards and two touchdowns. Jermaine Gresham might not play, but if the toe checks out, he's a sleeper candidate.
The Bills allow a league-low 4.5 FPPG to tight ends. That number drops to 2.0 over the last six weeks with names like Travis Kelce and Charles Clay in the mix.
Two tight ends have topped 4.9 FP against the Rams: Kyle Rudolph (7.6) and Cooper Helfet (12.1). They're also the only two to score, as the Rams have allowed a mere 10 red zone targets to tight ends.
Matchup-boosted TEs: Eric Ebron (HR play), Zach Ertz, Allen, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, Gresham, Kelce
Notes: DAFPA includes various defense adjusted metrics in addition to FPPG.
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