Week 6’s Worst Fantasy Projections
Last week, we talked a bunch about the nuisance of bye weeks. We mentioned how you need to acquire the depth, while still saving your FAAB money in order to splurge when necessary. Well, as we enter week six, it’s now necessary.
Yes, the Dez Bryant injury was a killer, but he is only out for a couple more weeks now. The Tony Romo injury stunk, but quarterbacks are very often replaceable (with say Andy Dalton, who is performing at a top five level). It may have taken until the end of week five, but we finally had our first true top five draft pick casualty in the form of Jamaal Charles. Welp, now is the time you need(ed) to spend your money or use that number one waiver claim.
Let’s be clear: Jamaal Charles is not replaceable. You can’t just pick up Charcandrick West or Knile Davis and just expect them to be Jamaal Charles. Sure Andy Reid says that West is the running back most like Charles or that Davis has had some success as Charles’ long term back up, but what does that even mean? No matter how much coach speak we hear, these guys are NOT Jamaal Charles. They aren’t going to get the same amount of carries as Charles, the same leniency after a bad game, or the same statistical outputs. So why do we need to empty the bank for West and why is Davis a must pick up? Opportunity.
So much of fantasy football success is rooted in opportunity and while they may not be Charles, West and Davis now have an opportunity that some of these other pick ups will not. Give me West over fawning over Christine Michael or guessing on Dwayne Harris. West and Davis have no one coming back to usurp their touches. Even if the Chiefs sign Pierre Thomas or Ray Rice, the carries for both West and Davis are secure. Now is it worth spending everything to go and get West, when Davis could be option 1A rather than 1B? Well that answer is on how desperate you are. I spent 2/3 of my budget to try and get West and then 1/3 on Davis. If that was enough, great. If not…hopefully they will be as bad as Bleacher Report’s picks were last week!
LAST WEEK’S BLEACHER REPORT PROJECTIONS
Ronnie Hillman (6 points, Over) – Wouldn’t it be great if we always stick to our guts. I knew I should never bother trying to figure out Ronnie Hillman vs. CJ Anderson. It was a lost cause and just impossible. As Mike Clay pointed out on twitter, Anderson is the one that has been ahead (or equal) on carries and targets in every game this season. Yes, the targets have been equal in the last four games (again pointed out by Clay) which is odd for sure, but all of this getting the ball to Hillman more nonsense, was just that; nonsense. I bought in and my projection paid for it.
Marshawn Lynch (16 points, Under) – Yup, we knew this one too. I knew when picking this as an under that Lynch wasn’t going to wind up playing and this would be another N/A. Of course if he put up the numbers Thomas Rawls did, he would have been way over 16, even against the solid rush defense of Cincinnati. So thankfully for me, he didn’t.
Jordan Matthews (10 points, Over) – Despite the Eagles putting up 39 points on the afternoon, Jordan Matthews didn’t have a single one of them. In fact, Matthews had his second consecutive “worst game of the year”, hauling in just five receptions for 44 yards on seven targets. The man that was supposed to be a PPR Machine has really been struggling as of late and just can not be counted on right now.
Amari Cooper (13 points, Under) – Finally. Oakland hung with the Broncos for much of this divisional game, but that was probably more due to the fact that Peyton Manning can’t throw, than anything else. Denver’s defense dominated, to no one surprise, and their awesomeness led to a tough day for the Rookie of the Year candidate. Cooper had just four receptions for 47 yards on four targets in a rough afternoon. I think it will get better in the future, but thankfully for me, this past week was a downer.
Owen Daniels (7 points, Over) – So, if I thought my last few picks weren’t great, this one is the worst. And by worst, I mean worst of the season. And by worst of the season, I mean the worst projection I have ever made ever. Owen Daniels had a big fat zero in week five. Yes, he was targeted a couple of times in the end zone (including on a Peyton Manning interception), but he didn’t come down with a single reception, much less a single touchdown. Even against a Raiders defense that hate covering tight ends, Daniels couldn’t do anything. Now, yes, some of this is related to Peyton Manning’s deficiencies, but it’s also due to Daniels being terrible. So I’ve now learned that atrocious tight end play always will outweigh atrocious defensive play. Thanks Owen.
Once you take out Marshawn Lynch, yeah, this week is a straight disaster. Amari Cooper is the only projection I was right about. Two others were bad and Owen Daniels was a complete disaster that I’m literally going to give myself a minus two for that. The season score now comes in at 7-11. What a mess. Hopefully NFL.com’s fantasy projections are terrible. We need all of the help we can get.
Five new picks to try to improve our record and show that projections don’t know what they are talking about. Unfortunately, judging by the first four weeks, it seems as if I don’t know what I’m talking about. Let’s hope week six starts the righting the ship.
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