It’s always nice to see when you’re right. The thrill of having your big pick up of the week, say Donte’ Moncrief, going off is one of the better feelings you can have in fantasy football. It’s confirmation that you know exactly what you’re doing and probably on your way to a championship (give or take 11 places in the standings or so). Unfortunately, the opposite holds true when you completely botch a call. When you get all excited about picking up a spot starter in fantasy baseball and then they get absolutely bombed, say whenever you picked up CC Sabathia earlier in the year, it’s just incredibly demoralizing. The mix of these extreme emotions is how we feel after last week’s projection results.
This column doesn’t aim to slam fantasy sites. It also doesn’t aim to be 100% accurate in making our own projections. It’s to point out how inexact the science of projections are and how even the worldwide leader’s projections can be wildly inaccurate. It’s not just ESPN’s projections that can be dead wrong though. Every fantasy platform that presents prognostications can be as equally off. It’s why this week we will look at Yahoo and show you five projections that we think just are very off.
We’ve heard your reaction on twitter. The positive (shockingly), the negative (standard) and that’s why we’ll take ownership in just exactly we were right about last week and what we couldn’t have been more wrong on. We don’t work for one of the 1100 psychic’s currently in New York City, nor do we possess a crystal ball (to answer the most popular twitter question). But dammit, we have something to prove. Let’s get to last week’s review and this week’s picks.
LAST WEEK’S ESPN PROJECTIONS
Colin Kaeperenick (Projection: 16 points, Under) – Well this was a straight up disaster. Our first pick of the season and we completely botch it. Kaepernick absolutely dominated the Steelers in garbage time, throwing for 335 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing for another 51. This totaled 26 standard league points. So in other words we shat the bed.
Andre Johnson (8 points, Under) – So as terrible as we felt about the Kaepernick choice, at least we nailed this one. Although it wasn’t #RevisIsland for Andre, he still looked very old last week, getting absolutely no separation. While Andrew Luck didn’t have much time to throw, and wasn’t accurate when he did, Andre Johnson didn’t help him out at all. If you’re an Andre owner, you have every reason to be worried.
Steve Smith, Sr. (7 points, Over) – Our favorite play of the week dominated just as we expected. Torching a Raiders secondary for 10 catches and 150 yards, Smith doubled his ESPN projection. Like we said last week, never mess with Smith’s PASSION FOR THE GAME. Especially against the Raiders. We shouldn’t even get credit for this one. It was that easy.
Tre Mason (10 points, Under) – After stifling Lamar Miller and the Dolphins running game the week prior, we figured St. Louis would have a hard time rushing against Washington. With the presence of Benny Cunningham, it was going to be tough for Mason to get to that 10 points projected. He had 2. 26 yards rushing, on 7 carries in Mason’s season debut. That’s another one for SportsGrid.
Lance Dunbar (3 points, Over) – We admitted last week that we had a serious fantasy crush on Dunbar after the Dez Bryant injury. Unfortunately, Tony Romo injured his shoulder and Dunbar wasn’t the stud we expected. While he had 4 points in ESPN standard leagues, we didn’t get this one as right as we expected. 3 points was close enough to give ESPN the win here.
So a 3-2 week 2 wasn’t so bad in our first shot at this. It was still a win and that’s what matters. Let’s see how we can do in week 3, when we take on Yahoo. This time the points will be in a half point per reception league.