One thing has been abundantly clear from the outset of these playoffs; no one can slow down the Colorado Avalanche. The Western Conference Champions have rolled over their competition en route to a 14-2 record and a +33 goal differential. That goal differential took a giant leap following Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals after the Avs dispatched the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-0. Now, the series shifts to South Florida, with the Bolts hosting Colorado for the next two games. Unless Tampa figures things out quickly, these will be the season’s last two games.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Odds, Total

Moneyline: Avalanche -110 | Lightning -110

Spread: Avalanche +1.5 (-265) | Lightning -1.5 (+215)

Total: 6 Over +104 | Under -128

Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Analysis

Thankfully, the Lightning have a good track record for performing well with their backs against the wall. The two-time defending Cup Champs fell 2-0 in their Eastern Conference Final against the New York Rangers before rattling off four straight wins to punch their ticket to the final. The basis for Tampa’s success was turning up their defensive intensity, which has been evident throughout these playoffs. 

The Bolts have limited their opponents to six or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in six of their eight home games, giving up an average of 6.8 per game. You can’t win hockey games on defense alone; their ability to create opportunities has been even more impressive. Through their first eight home games, the Lightning have nearly doubled their opponents’ quality chances 99-54, including out-chancing their opponents 47-16 over their past three. 

However, we’re anticipating the Lightning to face more resistance from the Avs than they did the Rangers. Colorado has stymied the Bolts early this series, limiting them to nine total high-danger chances, including just one in Game 2. That’s been par for the course for the Avalanche, limiting opponents to nine or fewer quality opportunities in 12 of 16 postseason games. 

Neither team will be giving up an inch in Monday night’s affair. The Avs continue to operate one of the most efficient defensive units, while we expect a much stauncher effort from Tampa Bay in Game 3. This should be a low-scoring game, lending itself to the second overtime contest of the Stanley Cup Finals.

Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Predictions

The Pick: Under 6 -128, 60-Minute Tie +310