Avalanche vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Game 4 Best Player Props

Home ice is proving to hold all the advantages in the Stanley Cup Final. The Colorado Avalanche took the series’ first two games convincingly, giving way to the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 3, dragging the Avs to a 6-2 thrashing. The series deficit doesn’t seem as insurmountable for the Lightning now, setting the stage for a critical Game 4 on Wednesday. Skill is taking over this series, leading to offensive outbursts and alluring player props.

Alex Killorn – Over 0.5 Points (+125)

The Lightning’s top line of Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat, and Nikita Kucherov carried the offensive burden on Monday night. The trio combined for six points, helping the Bolts cut the series lead in half. However, the second line could be on the verge of a breakout performance.

Tampa’s second unit is led by Alex Killorn, who played the second-most minutes at five-on-five in Game 3. The 25-goal scorer has been a valuable contributor on both ends of the ice but possesses above-average offensive abilities. Through 20 playoff games, Killorn has put together a 51.1% expected goals-for rating despite starting just 41.6% of his shifts in the attacking zone. Moreover, the right-winger’s actual goals-for rating of 45.2% is below expected, which is also reflected in his goals total. Killorn has been on the ice for 14 goals, well below his expected total of 20, and recording points on just four tallies.

It hasn’t been a productive start to the postseason for Killorn, but he remains an offensive leader for the Lightning. The prop market has shifted away from him, but at +125, now is the time to back Killorn to go over his 0.5-point total.

Steven Stamkos – Over 0.5 Points (-200)

If the Lightning have any hope of equalizing this series, they need their best players to step up, starting with Stamkos. Tampa’s captain led all forwards in ice-time in Game 3 and should duplicate his two-point performance on Wednesday.

The analytics validate Stamkos’s ongoing success. The two-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner sits second among Lightning forwards with 266 scoring and 115 high-danger chances, leading to the second-highest expected goals-for total. Tampa continues to deploy Stamkos under ideal circumstances, with 70.7% of his zone starts coming in the offensive end and giving Stammer a healthy dose of powerplay time. On Monday night, Stamkos led all skaters with 6:52 on the man advantage, facilitating five shots on target. 

Tampa’s success runs through their top line, meaning Stamkos needs to deliver again in Game 4. The advanced metrics support ongoing production from Stamkos, and that’s also reflected in the -200 price on his point prop. A steep price shouldn’t prevent bettors from taking the over.