St. Louis Blues (+235) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-295) Total: 6 (O -114, U -106)
When the Blues and Maple Leafs met last week, Toronto outlasted St. Louis 5-4 in overtime. The Maple Leafs have been playing much better hockey, posting a 7-3 record over their last ten games, while the Blues sit 5-2-3 over that same sample size. Toronto has consistently been the much better team entering early January, which has them sitting with the fourth-best record in the NHL. Expectations were for the Blues to be a playoff-caliber team again, but they’ve yet to meet them, disappointing amid some injuries.
With some crucial injuries making the Blues dig deep into their farm system, it’s hardly a surprise to see the Maple Leafs listed as sizable favorites on the moneyline at -295, compared to the Blues sitting at +235.
Looking toward the projected goalie matchup, the visiting Blues are expected to continue leaning on Jordan Binnington, while the Maple Leafs should do the same with Matt Murray. The Blues netminder has a 13-12-3 record with a .896 save percentage, while Murray is 9-3-2 with a .920 save percentage. Those numbers indicate that the Maple Leafs should continue to boast an advantage in goal.
There’s more separating these teams than meets the eye. Toronto has a much deeper roster with the injuries the Blues are battling and are just playing better hockey at the moment. The Maple Leafs’ moneyline price doesn’t present value, but you can look at their puck line odds, which sit at -105.
Best Bet: Maple Leafs puck line (-105)
The Maple Leafs have started to score at a much higher clip than earlier in the season. They now sit eighth in goals scored per game, which has helped lead to four of their last five games combining for seven or more goals scored. Those same numbers hold up for the Blues, who’ve had difficulty keeping pucks out of their net. After the Blues and Maple Leafs combined to score nine goals, it’s hard to look away from the value that the over six presents at -106.
Best Bet: Over 6 (-106)
One Maple Leaf that continues to fly under the radar is William Nylander. The Leafs’ winger leads the team over their last five games with three goals and five assists. He’s continued to be one of the straws that stir the drink on offense, but he likely doesn’t get the overall credit he deserves. Nylander scored the overtime winner in last week’s game against the Blues, and there’s definite value in looking for him to find the back of the net again. As a result, target Nylander to score against the Blues tonight, which sits at an appetizing +124.
Best Prop: William Nylander to Record Over 0.5 Goals (+124)
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