NHL Best Bets: Red Wings vs. Maple Leafs Game Picks

Two Atlantic division foes are set to face off on Hockey Night in Canada, with the Detroit Red Wings visiting the Toronto Maple Leafs.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Detroit Red Wings (+260) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (-330) Total: 6.5 (O-112, U-108)

These two original six teams have already met once this year, which saw the Maple Leafs double up the Red Wings 4-2 on the road. The Red Wings have been struggling of late, posting a 3-6-1 record over their past ten games, while the Maple Leafs are 5-4-1 over that same sample size. Toronto currently sits in a much better position in the standings, where they occupy the second spot in the Atlantic, but still trail Boston by eleven points for the top spot. 

The regular season started on a much more positive note for the Red Wings, but they’ve fallen off after the first few months. A lot of that can stem from injuries, but they just haven’t been getting the goaltending or defensive play necessary to compete in a top-heavy Atlantic. As good as the Maple Leafs were in that category through three months, they’ve been struggling to keep pucks out of their net to end December and kick off January. 

Looking toward the projected goalie matchup tonight, the visiting Red Wings are expected to start Magnus Hellberg, while the Maple Leafs are likely turning to Ilya Samsonov. The Red Wings netminder has posted a 3-2 record, paired with a .906 save percentage, while Samsonov is 11-3-1 with a .914 save percentage. It hasn’t been the most positive stretch for either of these goalies of late, which could influence how you approach this matchup. 

The Maple Leafs are sizable favorites in this matchup at -330 on the moneyline, while the Red Wings are priced at +260. There’s no real value in backing the Maple Leafs at that number, but their puck line odds at least warrant some consideration at -140. 

Best Bet: Maple Leafs puck line -1.5 (-140) 

Over the Red Wings’ past five games, two of them have seen seven or more goals scored, while four of the previous five Maple Leafs’ games have gone over that number. Goaltending has been a significant issue for the Maple Leafs of late, but their ability to score goals at a high clip has helped create a lot of high-scoring atmospheres in their games. The Red Wings might not score regularly, which has the offense sitting 23rd in the NHL, but the Maple Leafs haven’t been hard to crack in that facet lately. As a result, there’s value with the total set at 6.5. With the recent trends we’ve witnessed from Toronto, it’s hard to avoid targeting the over 6.5 at -112. 

Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-112)

There’s a lot of high-end talent on this Toronto Maple Leafs team, but one player that’s not as appreciated as he probably should be is William Nylander. The Swedish winger has already compiled 45 points in 39 games, including 22 goals. He’s been a big part of what this team does offensively, yet his price tag to score doesn’t fluctuate enough where the number is no longer appealing. You can make a convincing case that these odds should be more in the +115 or +120 range, whereas he’s continued to hover around +140 to score, with his odds tonight listed at +138. There’s simply too much value in that number to pass it up. 

Best Prop: William Nylander to Record Over 0.5 Goals (+138)