Comparing Trump’s Republican Nomination to Unlikely Sports Stories

  • David Gonos


On June 16, 2015, Donald Trump announced he was officially campaigning to be the Republican nominee for the 2016 U.S. Presidential race. At the time, Trump had less than a three-percent chance of winning the race against politicians that had been planning their campaigns since the 2012 Presidential race, like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.

But here it is, early May, and he’s now the presumptive Republican nominee, after a long, knockout verbal battle with his counterparts, making it one of the most intriguing political stories of the past couple decades.

My question is – just how unlikely was this run? Can we put it into sports terms? If he had less than a three-percent chance of winning the nomination, that puts his odds at greater than 33-to-1 – at the very least.

It’s quite fitting that Trump (presumptively!) won the nomination the same week that the Leicester City soccer club won the English Premier League – beating 5,000-to-1 odds!

Trump’s win wasn’t quite as big, but it still ranks up there!

If Donald Trump Were a Horse in the Kentucky Derby …

He’d probably be named something snappy like “ Art of the Deal” or “You’re Fired,” and he would’ve ranked as the fifth-most shocking Kentucky Derby upset winner in history, just ahead of Charismatic, who won in 1999, despite being a 31-1 underdog.

If Donald Trump Were a Baseball Team …

Strangely, Trump would’ve been like a small-market team, the Kansas City Royals from last year, when they won the 2015 World Series after starting the year as 28-1 odds of winning the title. To put that in the perspective of the current season, Trump would be like if the 11-12 Cleveland Indians (30-1 odds) were to win the 2016 World Series. They’re fourth in the AL Central!

If Donald Trump Were a Female UFC Fighter …

His win would’ve been even more impressive than Holly Holm’s victory over Ronda Rousey last November. That insane upset was with just 22-1 odds! And it’s considered the greatest upset in UFC history! Seriously, though, wouldn’t seeing Trump in the octagon, battling it out against someone like Ted Cruz be worth every penny I have?

If Donald Trump Were an NBA Team …

He would be like the current Miami Heat, who are up 1-0 on Toronto after one game in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. They currently have 35-1 odds to win the 2015-16 NBA Championship – which is not good.

No matter the sport or the political arena, Trump’s win of the 2016 Republican nomination (presumptively!) is one of the best betting stories of the past two decades! Sure, it’s like betting on a guy that has enough money to buy a dozen elections, but still, it’s impressive!

Photo Credit of Donald Trump Impersonator at a Rugby Game: Mark Ralston, Getty Images

David Gonos

David Gonos has been writing about sports online since 2001, including,,, and