Free 2012 Recap with Week 17 Matchups
Hopefully, you took home your Fantasy Football title! And hopefully, you’re just reading this for fun. No one should be playing in Week 17; it’s insane. With the amount of luck involved in Fantasy Football already, you shouldn’t add more by trying to guess which teams will start their players or let them rest.
With that said, it’s time to look back on the 2012 season to analyze, well, the analysis of Given Up. Were the studs always studly? Did the bench-worthy options ever explode? Basically, if you set your lineups exactly as the Fantasy Points Allowed breakdown suggested, how well did it work out for you?
I’m glad you asked because if you did just that, you were choosing the best players at least 71.3 percent of the time – and that’s the worst off you would have been. That 71.3 percent accuracy came from the tight end position. As we know, tight ends were the most inconsistent, frustrating and injury-riddled of all positions this season. Before we go through each position, here is how I calculated the accuracy.
Calculation: 1) Took the average FPPG for each position. 2) If the “good matchup” player eclipsed his positional average by two points or more, he received a full point. 3) If the player fell between the average and two points above, he received .67 (or two-thirds of a point). 4) If he fell below but was still within two points of the average, he received .33 (or one-third). 5) If he completely missed the mark, he received nothing. 6) The same goes for those with “tough matchups,” just inversed.
Quarterbacks: Overall accuracy was an astounding 80.2 percent. You could argue the QB position is the most important in Fantasy Football due to points scored and only one starting option (normally). Hitting on 80.2 percent of the picks is amazing. There were some obvious misses this year: Matt Ryan against Oakland and in the second Saints meeting, Josh Freeman versus those Saints in Week 15, and even Colin Kaepernick notching 18 FP against Chicago. Overall though, there were few low points for Given Up as it predicted poor outings for studs like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Eli Manning and more. It even called for great showings from lesser QBs like Christian Ponder, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco and erratic Jay Cutler.
[caption id="attachment_31962" align="alignright" width="300" caption="<strong><em>You could have enjoyed Chris Johnson’s big weeks and avoided the letdowns if you followed Given Up. </em></strong><em>Photo Credit <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/theelsie/">The League! - TheELSIE.com</a></em>"][/caption]
Running Back: Not far behind QBs, the running backs checked in at 76.5 percent. There were a few tough weeks, as Week 1 was one of the worst, but then again, it was Week 1. Week 6 saw Trent Richardson disappoint while Ahmad Bradshaw torched the 49ers. And we all know about the recent immense disappointments of Jamaal Charles and Doug Martin in Week 15. However, Given Up again saw big games from names you might not normally trust, such as Alfred Morris early in the season before anyone believed in him, Mikel Leshoure early in his taking over for Detroit, Reggie Bush on several of his big weeks, Marcel Reece in Week 11, and surprisingly, Chris Johnson on his good weeks more often than not. Also, it nailed some bad games coming for big names when Adrian Peterson fell flat in Weeks 3 and 9, Morris struggled in Week 6, plus poor showings from Matt Forte, Frank Gore, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, TRich and of course, CJK’s off weeks.
Wide Receiver: I was surprised to find the receivers in third place. Honestly, when you analyze their matchups, you have more than one option, sometimes three. When you have that many, you know all of the players won’t always hit, so to find out the percentage came in at 76.3, I was a bit surprised but even more confident in this tool. Just as with QBs and RBs, studs and lesser stars showed up with strong games. We saw teams we would expect – Broncos, Patriots, Giants, Cowboys, etc. – and plenty we didn’t – Titans, Dolphins, Jaguars, etc. – produce as Given Up predicted. Of course, studs disappointed here too with names like Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Victor Cruz and even Megatron himself (Week 7 and 8). To be on the mark over three-fourths of the time? I’d take those odds when trying to predict the most inconsistent position of the main three any day.
As mentioned, the tight end position came in last at 71.3, but I’ll still take it. Look at the Top 10 tight ends: Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Heath Miller, Jason Witten, Greg Olsen, Dennis Pitta, Owen Daniels, Kyle Rudolph and Jermaine Gresham. Where are Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis and Jermichael Finley? Who are some of these guys? How annoyed were Rudy owners this year? The tight end position was a mess this season, so to be right even half of the time would be an accomplishment. More often than not, Given Up hit the mark on Rudy, called much of Davis and Gates seasons and saw the big weeks coming from Heath Miller early in the season. Given Up had its shares of misses – trying to believe there was juice left for Gates in Week 11 or Davis in Week 12, and of course, Brandon Myers in Week 14 – but overall, it was an overall success.
In the end, Given Up hit on around 450 players this season (wow) for an overall accuracy rating of 76.4 percent. To give you a reference point, a site tallied the weekly rankings for 88 experts over the entire season. Their overall accuracy averaged out to 59.8 with the top being 62.6 and the low end coming in at 54.6. Also, the “main expert” most know and look to, he checked in at an even 60.0 percent. Wouldn’t you take the 76.4 every.single.time.? It’s crazy not to, and if you did, you likely won your league, or at the worst, made the championship game! In the end, the ultimate goal is to win, but you’ve more than defeated the odds just by playing in Week 16. Again though, playing in Week 17… yea, there is no joy there.
Alas, in case you are here for the Week 17 matchups, I’m listing them below – just the charts. No breakdowns, as at this point, you know what it all means, and giving you analysis this early – when we have no idea what half the teams will do – would be similar to the dart throwing for kicker choices... okay, it's still 10 times better than that...
Quarterback Points Allowed
|1||Carolina Panthers||NO||19.7||17||Washington Redskins||DAL||14.7|
|2||Atlanta Falcons||TB||18.9||18||New England Patriots||MIA||14.7|
|3||San Diego Chargers||OAK||17.0||19||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||ATL||12.9|
|4||Green Bay Packers||MIN||17.3||20||Seattle Seahawks||STL||14.1|
|5||Tennessee Titans||JAX||16.1||21||Cincinnati Bengals||BAL||12.7|
|6||New York Jets||BUF||18.3||22||Minnesota Vikings||GB||13.6|
|7||New York Giants||PHI||17.6||23||Cleveland Browns||PIT||11.2|
|8||Denver Broncos||KC||16.5||24||Indianapolis Colts||HOU||14.3|
|9||Dallas Cowboys||WAS||17.0||25||Buffalo Bills||NYJ||12.3|
|10||Jacksonville Jaguars||TEN||16.5||26||Arizona Cardinals||SAF||13.1|
|11||Houston Texans||IND||15.1||27||Kansas City Chiefs||DEN||13.3|
|12||Chicago Bears||DET||15.9||28||New Orleans Saints||CAR||12.9|
|13||Miami Dolphins||NE||16.5||29||Baltimore Ravens||CIN||11.9|
|14||Philadelphia Eagles||NYG||16.5||30||Detroit Lions||CHI||10.4|
|15||Oakland Raiders||SAD||15.5||31||St Louis Rams||SEA||10.1|
|16||Pittsburgh Steelers||CLE||15.8||32||San Francisco 49ers||ARI||9.9|
Running Back Points Allowed
|1||Tennessee Titans||JAX||20.2||17||Baltimore Ravens||CIN||14.7|
|2||Carolina Panthers||NO||20.3||18||Oakland Raiders||SAD||15.5|
|3||New York Jets||BUF||21.9||19||Chicago Bears||DET||14.9|
|4||Jacksonville Jaguars||TEN||20.0||20||Dallas Cowboys||WAS||14.6|
|5||Houston Texans||IND||18.4||21||Seattle Seahawks||STL||16.5|
|6||San Diego Chargers||OAK||19.5||22||New York Giants||PHI||14.6|
|7||Cincinnati Bengals||BAL||17.4||23||Atlanta Falcons||TB||15.0|
|8||Denver Broncos||KC||17.1||24||Green Bay Packers||MIN||13.9|
|9||Washington Redskins||DAL||17.3||25||Miami Dolphins||NE||14.0|
|10||Pittsburgh Steelers||CLE||17.0||26||Cleveland Browns||PIT||12.7|
|11||New Orleans Saints||CAR||16.9||27||New England Patriots||MIA||13.9|
|12||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||ATL||17.6||28||Kansas City Chiefs||DEN||12.3|
|13||San Francisco 49ers||ARI||16.8||29||St Louis Rams||SEA||12.3|
|14||Philadelphia Eagles||NYG||15.4||30||Arizona Cardinals||SAF||11.7|
|15||Buffalo Bills||NYJ||16.7||31||Indianapolis Colts||HOU||11.5|
|16||Minnesota Vikings||GB||15.4||32||Detroit Lions||CHI||11.3|
Wide Receiver Points Allowed
|1||Carolina Panthers||NO||26.6||17||Washington Redskins||DAL||21.5|
|2||Atlanta Falcons||TB||26.4||18||Indianapolis Colts||HOU||22.3|
|3||Dallas Cowboys||WAS||25.7||19||New England Patriots||MIA||19.9|
|4||Houston Texans||IND||23.1||20||Cincinnati Bengals||BAL||19.6|
|5||Chicago Bears||DET||22.4||21||Minnesota Vikings||GB||20.1|
|6||Pittsburgh Steelers||CLE||24.3||22||Cleveland Browns||PIT||16.8|
|7||Miami Dolphins||NE||23.5||23||Detroit Lions||CHI||18.8|
|8||Philadelphia Eagles||NYG||23.8||24||Seattle Seahawks||STL||17.7|
|9||Tennessee Titans||JAX||20.2||25||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||ATL||16.3|
|10||Jacksonville Jaguars||TEN||21.7||26||Baltimore Ravens||CIN||16.7|
|11||New York Giants||PHI||22.5||27||Buffalo Bills||NYJ||15.9|
|12||Green Bay Packers||MIN||20.3||28||San Francisco 49ers||ARI||17.7|
|13||Oakland Raiders||SAD||21.1||29||Kansas City Chiefs||DEN||17.1|
|14||San Diego Chargers||OAK||19.8||30||Arizona Cardinals||SAF||16.4|
|15||Denver Broncos||KC||20.7||31||New Orleans Saints||CAR||15.9|
|16||New York Jets||BUF||20.7||32||St Louis Rams||SEA||14.9|
Tight End Points Allowed
|1||Dallas Cowboys||WAS||9.4||17||New Orleans Saints||CAR||6.9|
|2||Kansas City Chiefs||DEN||9.9||18||Baltimore Ravens||CIN||6.8|
|3||San Diego Chargers||OAK||8.0||19||Denver Broncos||KC||5.9|
|4||Atlanta Falcons||TB||8.5||20||St Louis Rams||SEA||6.8|
|5||Jacksonville Jaguars||TEN||9.3||21||Seattle Seahawks||STL||6.4|
|6||Chicago Bears||DET||7.7||22||Philadelphia Eagles||NYG||6.2|
|7||Carolina Panthers||NO||7.7||23||New York Giants||PHI||5.8|
|8||Miami Dolphins||NE||8.5||24||Arizona Cardinals||SAF||6.3|
|9||Green Bay Packers||MIN||7.0||25||Pittsburgh Steelers||CLE||5.6|
|10||Tennessee Titans||JAX||6.7||26||Oakland Raiders||SAD||5.5|
|11||Washington Redskins||DAL||7.1||27||New England Patriots||MIA||5.7|
|12||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||ATL||6.9||28||San Francisco 49ers||ARI||6.2|
|13||Houston Texans||IND||6.3||29||Cleveland Browns||PIT||5.4|
|14||Indianapolis Colts||HOU||8.1||30||Cincinnati Bengals||BAL||5.5|
|15||Buffalo Bills||NYJ||6.7||31||Minnesota Vikings||GB||5.6|
|16||New York Jets||BUF||6.3||32||Detroit Lions||CHI||5.1|
(Reminder: You’ll notice the rankings are not in exact order of points allowed. Other metrics are calculated in along with just straight points. It allows for better analysis so one off-week doesn’t skew the opponent difficulty too greatly.)
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