TONY GONZALEZ IS CONSISTENTLY DOMINANT
Did you draft a tight end in the first or second round because some of the other Fantasy “experts” told you that a tight end would be scoring as many points as the top wide receivers? Well, there is a tight end scoring that many Fantasy points so far in 2012, but it’s not the tight ends they told you to draft; it’s my man, Tony Gonzalez!
Each week this season, the Quality Games Review will be here to assist you. It should help you see who is performing above average to help your team win, along with those who may be hurting your chances. As the year goes on, consistency trends will start to show the players that are becoming consistent performers and who are one-week wonders.
The Quality Game Score is the awarding of a Quality Game to a player each week when they exceed the average points scored in your league for that position. The more Quality Games a player is awarded each year, the more consistent that player is and the more beneficial they are to your Fantasy team. The scoring method used will be a standard PPR format with four points for passing touchdowns and six for all others.
So, let’s begin the review…
Quarterbacks - (Quality Game Factor – 18.27)
Quality Game Earners – Week 5
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Drew Brees broke Johnny Unitas’ consecutive games with a TD pass record this week and almost took the top spot in the Quality Games rankings as well. Peyton Manning has been even better than I expected. I expected solid consistency, but his fifth place ranking in overall points impresses me even more. Philip Rivers finally regained some Fantasy swag this week. However, the question is: Was it Rivers or New Orleans horrible defense? I’d say both. Michael Vick barely squeaked in again this week. However, think how much higher his total points would be if he didn’t have three to five turnovers every week.
Andrew Luck snagged the top spot this week and did it against Aaron Rodgers. Luck is at a 75 percent Quality Success Rate (QSR) for this season and I believe this consistency will continue as he improves. Alex Smith had a huge week (as was predicted in last week’s Historical Consistency article in the Xclusive Edge section). Brandon Weeden earned his second Quality Game. His only other Quality Game this year? That was inCincinnati in Week 2. If you’re desperate for a bye week, he could be a decent choice.
Here is a group of those bad surprises; quarterbacks who didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. Cam Newton looked bad and Robert Griffin III was knocked out with a concussion. Both hurt their respective Fantasy owners this week.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD - Quarterbacks
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We are now down to only three perfects at quarterback so far this season. Two were expected by most experts with Tom Brady and Drew Brees. The other is Matt Ryan, who is helping my multiple Fantasy teams and my listeners’ teams to winning records.
However, the biggest surprise has to be Cam Newton and Philip Rivers who are both at a 40 percent QSR so far this season. If I owned either one of these quarterbacks, I would be very concerned right now.
Running Backs - (Quality Game Factor – 10.35)
Quality Game Earners – Week 5
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Ahmad Bradshaw is normally fairly consistent but he’s never been one to have huge weeks like this one. Ryan Mathews appears to be back and healthy once again. Also speaking of healthy, Rashard Mendenhall earned his first Quality Game of the season. Marshawn Lynch barely made the list this week but he continues to be perfect for the season. Frank Gore is certainly helping quite a number of Fantasy owners who took a chance on him and his consistency.
Trent Richardson continues to amaze me with his talent even though he has a very untalented team around him. Is it me or is Stevan Ridley killing Rob Gronkowski’s Fantasy value this season? There’s no reason to throw five yard touchdown passes every week if your running back can score for you. Please remember David Wilson scored 10 of his 10.4 points in one play this past weekend, so don’t be too excited to pick him up just yet. Isn’t Armando Allen the guy who does the Men’s Wearhouse commercials?
Below is a list of some of the top running backs in football that did not earn a Quality Game this week. If this list doesn’t tell why there were a ton of unhappy Fantasy owners this past weekend, I don’t know what does.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD – Running Backs
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There are only six perfects. These players were expected to be top backs. While I agree that some better than others (i.e., Arian Foster and Ray Rice), there are no real surprises at this point.
The real surprises in the 80 percent range include Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris, and Stevan Ridley. They all appear to have the talent; the question is can they keep this consistency up. Right now, it’s looking pretty good to me.
Wide Receiver - (Quality Game Factor – 10.85)
Quality Game Earners – Week 5
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How about Reggie Wayne this season? All he needed was a consistent quarterback to get him the ball and he’s once again the elite receiver we all remembered when Peyton was there. Marques Colston is finally breaking out of his inconsistent funk. After a slow start, he’s put up back-to-back Quality Games and is ranked seventh overall. However, those are his first two Quality Games of the season, so let’s not be too giddy about his 2012 performance. Brandon Marshall has certainly been consistent this season and has been the only offensive spark for the Bears in Matt Forte’s absence.
Devery Henderson caught the record-breaking touchdown from Drew Brees and filled in nicely for Lance Moore on my Fantasy teams. James Jones and Randall Cobb have both earned back-to-back Quality Games in Greg Jennings’ absence. When Jennings returns, expect Jones to lose out on the touches. There are three 49ers on the good list this week. This probably hasn't happened in quite a long time. Anquan Boldin has also earned two straight Quality Games and could be a nice waiver wire pickup.
Here is the list of top wide receivers that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. There are a ton of big names on the bad list this week. Brandon Lloyd and Mike Wallace lose their perfectly consistent season this week.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD – Wide Receivers
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There are four perfects remaining. There is one (A.J. Green) with five games and three with four games. The players with four games and 100 percent are Reggie Wayne, Miles Austin and Antonio Brown. Some of the quietly consistent wide receivers are players like Dwayne Bowe and Demaryius Thomas, who both at 80 percent QSR.
The surprises on the list and who should be on your list of waiver wire potentials for your bye week this week are players like Nate Burleson and Denarius Moore.
Tight Ends - (Quality Game Factor – 9.40)
Quality Game Earners – Week 5
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Vernon Davis continues to be the consistent tight end that we knew he could be. I see no reason to expect any slow down. Fred Davis is finally becoming consistent again as well as he earned his third straight Quality Game. With a new quarterback this week, he should continue that consistency. Brent Celek has surprised many with his consistency this season. He’s become a favorite of Michael Vick.
Joel Dreessen earned his third straight Quality Game this while Jacob Tamme earned his second. I don’t think anyone expected the tight end situation in Denver to be a time-share. Dwayne Allen, not Coby Fleener earned a Quality Game this week. Jeff Cumberland earned a Quality Game for the Jets with Dustin Keller on the sidelines.
Here are the top tight ends that didn’t earn a Quality Game this week. Rob Gronkowski is now three for five in Quality Games. Ouch! But even worse this week was Jimmy Graham’s 1.4 Fantasy points for the week.
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Consistency Leaders – YTD – Tight Ends
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DOMINATION!!!! Tony Gonzalez is absolutely dominating the Fantasy tight ends so far in 2012. He has almost a 30 point lead on second place in only five weeks. And even more amazing is second and third place are not Gronkowski and Graham. It’s Vernon Davis and Owen Daniels. Daniels remains perfect with five for five in Quality Games while Brandon Pettigrew is four for four. The really bad side of the tight ends are former consistent studs like Jason Witten, Jermichael Finley and Antonio Gates who are killing their Fantasy teams this year.
There’s your Week 5 list of Quality Games earned. Start watching these Quality rankings to find your next gem on the waiver wire and then let me know how they work out in your drive towards the championship!
Week Six – Quality Matchups
My Quality Game research has also shown that most Quality Games are earned during a Quality Matchup. This is a game where the player is either playing at home OR away versus a bottom ten defense. If you want more analysis to help with setting your lineup each week, check out the Xclusive Edge Package and you will see the Historical Consistency rankings each week.
So, let’s take a look at the schedule.
These teams have a bye this week:
This week’s home teams are:
Tennessee, Tampa Bay, New York Jets, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Miami, Baltimore, Arizona, Seattle, San Francisco, Washington, Houston and San Diego
Teams that are playing away versus a bottom ten defense include:
As I mentioned above, the Fantasy players on these teams in these Quality Matchups have a much higher rate of performing above average in comparison to the other players at that position.
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