While most people are talking about #blackmonday, the NFL Playoffs, Adrian Peterson and Tony Romo today, I want to bring to your attention something that may help you in your enjoyment and ability to profit from America’s most popular game next season. Back in October I penned a piece, Did Jim Harbaugh Have Money on the Seahawks? You can dismiss the circumstances as coincidence if you’d like, but it would appear that Harbaugh or his cronies may have had a decent payday again yesterday.
I know talking about point spreads in the NFL is silly. It’s not like anyone wagers in these things (cough, cough). For the handful of you who dabble in this type of thing however, I think it’s prudent to track these “coincidences.”
While yesterday’s fortuitous circumstances in the Cardinals vs. 49ers game may not have been as obvious to the casual viewer as those against Seattle earlier in the year, they were no less profitable. I can tell you that I received no less than seven emails from readers of ours who were “interested observers” that pointed out Harbaugh’s decision making “cost them the cover.” Interestingly I didn’t receive any correspondence from those who were gifted a nice payday, but that’s the way it usually works. Winners are usually quiet and humble, losers are usually boisterous and irate.
Issue at Hand
San Francisco came into the game as 16.5 point favorites. They won the game by 14 points, 27-13.
With 2:43 left to go in the game and the 49ers winning 27-6 and having the point spread covered by 4.5 points, San Francisco called a timeout before a 3rd and 20 play for the Cardinals at the San Francisco 33-yard line. During the timeout, Harbaugh pulled the starters. After the time out, on third down Brian Hoyer tried a short pass to the left to William Powell that lost 4-yards. Then on 4th and 24 from the San Francisco 37-line, Hoyer tossed what amounted to an uncontested Hail Mary to Michael Floyd for a TD closing the gap to 27-13 (after the PAT).
After the on side kick, with 1:58 to go in the game, LaMichael James ran the ball to the Arizona 29-yard line. With Arizona having all three time outs and in field goal range, Alex Smith took a knee with 1:15 left and then again with :32 left to end the game. It’s NOT customary to to take a knee against your opposition up less than two TD’s when they have all three time outs left. Anything can happen, again go back to the Joe Pisarcik / Larry Csonka play.
You can dismiss Harbaugh’s decisions as coincidence AGAIN. All I’m saying is that’s twice this season that his actions have cost you the cover if you wagered on the 49ers or made you money had you taken the opposition to cover. One time is an incident, the second time may be a coincidence, but if it happens again it will be a pattern. I’m just saying…
Happy New Year everyone. Drive safely…