2020 NFL Sports Betting Wide Receiver & Tight End Props
2020 NFL Sports Betting Wide Receiver & Tight End Props
One of the best ways to leverage your fantasy football knowledge is to best on season-long fantasy football props on the Fanduel Sportsbook. We have provided some of our favorite wide receiver and tight end props for 2020 here.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles: UNDER 7.5 Touchdowns (-130)
Fanduel currently lists the over/under for Zach Ertz’s receiving touchdowns at 7.5. I believe this is too high. Ertz has never had more than 8 touchdowns in a season, and he’s done that only twice, in 2017 and 2018. 2017 featured an outlandish touchdown % that led all Tight Ends, and 2018 had Ertz see 156 targets because every other pass catcher got hurt that year, as no other pass catcher even had 100 targets for Philadelphia. Last year he was back at 6 touchdowns.
From a personnel standpoint, all of the moves that the Eagles made signify that they saw pass catchers as a point of need. They used their first round pick on WR Jalen Raegor from TCU (who has received glowing reviews in training camp) and they used fourth and sixth round picks on Wide Receivers. Desean Jackson is back and healthy after missing almost all of last season. Dallas Goedert, the other Tight End for Philadelphia, has only grown as a player and has garnered more and more playing time and opportunity each year. Sophomore JJ Arcega-Whiteside is looking to be featured more after a rough rookie season. Alshon Jeffrey may start the season on the PUP list, but that only precludes him from playing the first six weeks.
Ertz will have his targets as Carson Wentz’s security blanket, but I believe that because of all of the additions at Wide Receiver and the continued growth of Goedert, that there is a ceiling on his targets and it would take another outlier touchdown season like Ertz’s 8-touchdowns-on-110-targets 2017 season to occur for the under 7.5 touchdown bet to lose. I’m willing to bet against an outlier, so I am taking the under here.
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns: OVER 5.5 Touchdowns (-112)
Odell Beckham regularly was having double-digit touchdown seasons over the first 3 years of his career. Beckham still had over 1,000 yards receiving last year to go with 4 touchdowns, while he was dealing with core and groin injuries bad enough that he needed surgery this offseason to fix. All reports are that Beckham is currently healthy.
Cleveland fixed their offensive line situation in the draft and free agency. They signed TE Austin Hooper as another pass-catching option to open the field up more for Beckham. His best friend Jarvis Landry is still there in Cleveland with him. Defenses will need to account for a whole season of Kareem Hunt catching passes out of the backfield as well. Whether opposing teams want to acknowledge it or not, doubling Beckham with safety help might not be feasible due to all of the other options on the team for Baker Mayfield to throw to.
New HC Kevin Stefanski will bring stability to a team that was sorely lacking in it under prior HC Freddie Kitchens.
Beckham was also a touchdown outlier last year: He had the one of the worst red zone target to touchdown % of all pass catchers last year, as he was targeted in the red zone 11 total times but only had 1 touchdown to go with it. Other players of his caliber (Deandre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Mike Thomas, etc.) all had at least 3 red zone touchdowns on a similar number of targets, and Jarvis Landry had 5 touchdowns on 20 red zone targets last year on the very same team!
I think with a fully healthy Beckham, a coherent offensive game plan, a better offensive line for Baker Mayfield to throw behind, the plethora of pass catchers for defenses to account for, and likely bad touchdown luck from last year regressing positively, Beckham can surpass 5.5 touchdowns. I am taking the over on this prop.
Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings: OVER 1,049.5 Receiving Yards (-102)
If Adam Thielen stays healthy, he will absolutely demolish the prop of 1,049.5 Receiving yards currently posted at Fanduel Sportsbook.
Thielen had injuries cut his season short last year, but the two years prior saw him have 140+ targets and over 1,275 receiving yards in both seasons. Thielen’s partner in the Vikings WR corps over the past few years, Stefon Diggs, was traded to Buffalo this offseason. He was replaced by rookie Justin Jefferson from LSU who is expected to play the slot WR role, not on the outside like Diggs did across from Thielen.
The “ground-and-pound”/”win with defense” style of play that HC Mike Zimmer wants to play might not be as feasible this year for Minnesota. The Vikings have to replace almost their entire secondary and lost pass rusher Everson Griffen to Free Agency, so the ability to lock opposing offenses down and have Dalvin Cook bludgeon teams with rushes might not be possible this year. It’s likely they will have to throw the ball more just due to game script.
Throwing the ball more due to a defense getting worse is obviously advantageous to Thielen, but what’s more advantageous is that Gary Kubiak is taking over as the offensive coordinator. Kubiak’s primary Wide Receiver usage is the stuff of legend. As a head coach or coordinator, his offenses in Houston and Denver saw their primary WRs (Andre Johnson and Demaryius Thomas) have gaudy target shares within their offenses. Thomas saw 161 targets on average in Denver under Kubiak, while Johnson routinely saw over 160 targets in a normal season under Kubiak’s offenses. In 7 of the 9 years Kubiak coached Johnson, Johnson had at least 140 targets in a season. If Thielen gets anywhere near this amount of usage, I like him to go over the 1,049.50 receiving yards.