2020 NFL Team Win Totals Market Analysis
2020 NFL Team Win Totals Market Analysis
The NFL season is less than one month away meaning time is of the essence for placing bets on NFL win totals. The 2020 season will kick off on Thursday, September 10th between the Houston Texans and reigning Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City is tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the highest win total on the board at 11.5.
NFL win totals went 14-15-3 (over-under-push) on the FanDuel Sportsbook in 2019. Last year, the New England Patriots were set at the highest mark with 11 wins. Although they hit the over, it was the Ravens who finished with the most wins last year with 14.
Baltimore Ravens Under 11.5 Wins
The Ravens enter their second preseason with, now reigning NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson at quarterback. In 2019, Jackson ranked sixth in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,206. The Ravens added to their rushing attack drafting Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins in the second round of the NFL Draft; however, it was the receiving game that needed help. Tight end Mark Andrews led the team with 852 receiving yards last season. Baltimore joins the New York Jets and The Washington Football Team as the only three teams in football without a 1,000-yard receiver. Of the Ravens 16 games this year, seven are against top 15 rushing defenses.
The AFC North is one of the toughest divisions in football. Last season, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was placed on injured reserve after week two due to a right elbow injury. Baltimore never had to face him. With the return of Big Ben plus the Cleveland Browns getting another year with receiving duo Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., this could be a repeat of 2014. If the AFC North has three teams with over nine wins, it makes it much tougher than last season for the Baltimore Ravens to hit the over of 11.5 wins.
Buffalo Bills Over 8.5 Wins
The Bills win total is juiced heavily to the over at -160. It’s surprising this number wasn’t set to nine. In 2019, Buffalo hit the over on its win total of 6.5 by Thanksgiving. A two win increase is warranted after Buffalo had a 10 win season last year. This isn’t about trends though.
Buffalo acquired wide receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason. The 26-year-old is coming off back-to-back 1,000 yard receiving seasons. His durability, speed and reliable hands are exactly what Buffalo needed to help quarterback Josh Allen’s passing game. In the run game, Allen led all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns with nine. Running back Devin Singletary rushed for 775 yards despite missing four games due to injuries. Even if Singletary has to miss time again, rookie running back Zack Moss out of Utah and five-year veteran back TJ Yeldon provide enough depth at the position.
Let’s also not forget that the Bills had the third best defense in the NFL last season. Buffalo limited the opposition to 298.3 yards per game behind the Patriots and 49ers. In an AFC East division where the Patriots lost quarterback Tom Brady and the Jets and Dolphins are listed at under seven wins this season, the Buffalo Bills should have an easier time hitting over 8.5 wins.
The Brady Effect
The biggest offseason move happened in March when quarterback Tom Brady announced he would be leaving the New England Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last year, the Patriots had the highest win total with 11. This season, the Patriots win total is down to 9.5. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers win total was set to 6.5 last year. It’s at 9.5 this year. The Brady effect.
Brady and the Patriots hit 12 wins last year despite the only reliable wide receiver being Julian Edelman. Edelman racked up 1,117 receiving yards last year. Who’s next on the list? Running back James White with 645 receiving yards. The third best receiver on the Patriots in 2019 was Phillip Dorsett who had 397.
Fast forward to today. Tom Brady is sporting a red jersey in Tampa, Florida throwing passes to tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Welcome to the parallel universe of 2020. Imagine what Brady can do with receivers who have a combined seven Pro Bowl appearances.
The Bucs had seven wins last year with Jameis Winston under center. It makes sense that the books say future Hall of Famer Tom Brady is worth 2.5 wins. With games against the Panthers (x2), Broncos, Chargers, Bears, Raiders, Giants and Lions that could be eight wins for Brady and his new squad. The over 9.5 wins for Tampa is the lean here.
The Worst of the Worst
The team with the lowest win total of five this season goes to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let’s take a look back at the worst team in the NFL last season. It was the Cincinnati Bengals who had two wins in 2019. Guess who the Jaguars get to play this season. The AFC North.
This will be a tough one for Jacksonville’s second year quarterback Gardner Minshew. Minshew ranked 29th in completion percentage last season at 60.6% and 19th in touchdown passes with 21. The Jaguars’ division, the AFC South, is expected to be highly competitive between the reigning division champions the Houston Texans, the newest Indianapolis Colts quarterback veteran Philip Rivers and the Tennessee Titans who were one win away from the Super Bowl last year.
The Jaguars have the best odds on the FanDuel Sportsbook to have the worst record in the NFL at +250. The Washington Football Team is at +600 with the Panthers and Bengals at +700 for the worst record in the NFL.