2020 Quarterback Sports Betting Props
2020 Quarterback Sports Betting Props
With the 2020 NFL season getting underway, there is no better way to get a sweat and make some money than betting individual player props on the Fanduel Sportsbook. These are three of my favorite quarterback sports betting props for the 2020 NFL Season.
Phillip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts: Over 27.5 Touchdowns (-102)
Fanduel currently has Rivers’ Touchdown over/under at 27.5 touchdowns. Rivers is going from the PFF 29th ranked offensive line in the NFL to the top-ranked one, and just as important in a year with coronavirus concerns, one that has continuity and returns all five starters from 2019. The Colts have the easiest projected strength of schedule this year in the NFL, and there is personnel/coaching continuity. HC Frank Reich and OC Nick Sirianni both are familiar with Rivers; Sirianni and Reich were both in San Diego with Rivers earlier in their careers.
There should be positive touchdown regression for Rivers this year: his 3.9% touchdown rate was among the league lows last year and should regress. 23 Touchdowns is an unusually low number for Rivers as he hasn’t finished with less than 28 touchdowns since 2012. I like him to hit the over 27.5 Touchdowns with all of the positive developments this season coming his way.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: Over 3199.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Jackson’s passing yardage prop at Fanduel is currently 3199.5: His yardage total of 2019 was 3,127, so the prop is currently 73 yards more than his output last year. The Ravens Opponent Passing Defense schedule goes from playing the 4th-hardest to playing the 4th-easiest schedule in the league. Their schedule for the first and last month of the season is comically light. HC Jim Harbaugh manufactures chances for success: No team was more aggressive on 4th down last year, which gives Jackson more opportunities to put up numbers.
Jackson came out in May and indicated to reporters that he and the Ravens coaching staff believes he should be running less and he will have 2019 first-round pick WR Marquise Brown fully healthy to go along with TE Mark Andrews and another big body in Willie Snead. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens didn’t have Brown healthy for most of last season.
The Ravens took a sledgehammer to almost every opponent last year and never really had to throw much because they were usually up in games so early: Baltimore was ahead by double digits by halftime in most games last year which is an outlier statistic: Even if other teams are just a bit more competitive, passing yardage should increase for Jackson due to not being able to get up early and run the clock out. As per Warren Sharp, there have only been 12 other teams since 2011 who threw the ball LESS than 500 times in a season like the Ravens did last year. 10 of those 12 threw more passes the next season to the tune of 65 more passing attempts on average.
For all the reasons I just outlined, I like Jackson to have more than the posted 3,199.5 passing yards.
Sam Darnold, New York Jets: OVER 22.5 Touchdowns (-108)
Darnold was on track to have 23 touchdowns last year using his per-game basis numbers, and I think there’s reason to believe that he can hit over 22.5 touchdowns this year: His 1.46 TD/gm last season breaks down to 23.4 TDs over a full season.
A few other things work in Darnold’s favor here: Last year’s Jets were the 2nd-most injured team in terms of games lost since 2000 as per Football Outsiders, so their injury luck should be better. Darnold gets back TE Chris Herndon this year, another season with slot WR Jamison Crowder, and a big-body WR in Breshad Perriman that the Jets brought over from Tampa. GM Joe Douglas spent in Free Agency and used the Jets’ first-round pick to shore up the offensive line to protect Darnold.
The Jets were an outlier in a bad way in touchdowns last year. The Jets scored the fewest offensive touchdowns in the entire league with 25 total touchdowns: 19 passing and six rushing touchdowns. this should bounce back a bit this year on a teamwide level. The Jets also traded Safety Jamal Adams to Seattle and lost Linebacker CJ Mosley who opted out of the season. Their defense is going to be bad and the Jets should be in a fair amount of shootouts.
I like Darnold to go over 22.5 touchdowns unless he gets mono again.