#7 Oregon Ducks #6 USC Trojans Spread, Line, Odds, Predictions, Picks, and Betting Preview for NCAA Basketball Game
#7 Oregon Ducks #6 USC Trojans Game Information
#7 Oregon Ducks (21-6) #6 USC Trojans (24-7)
Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
Venue: Bankers Life Fieldhouse
TV Coverage: TBS
#7 Oregon Ducks #6 USC Trojans Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Odds
Moneyline: (Open: Oregon +100 / USC -118) (Current: Oregon +116 / USC -136)
Spread: (Open: USC -1) (Current: USC -2)
Total: (Open: 139) (Current: 138)
NCAA Championship Odds: Oregon +4000 / USC +2500
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#7 Oregon Ducks #6 USC Trojans News and Notes
Oregon lists only N’Faly Dante (knee) on their injury report.
There are no injuries to report for USC.
- The total is on a 7-0 run to the over in Oregon’s last seven games following an outright win.
- The total is 6-0 to the over in Oregon’s last six games after scoring at least 90 points in their previous outing.
- The total is 4-0 to the over in Oregon’s last four Sunday games.
- The total is 6-1-1 to the over in USC’s last eight games following an outright win.
- USC is on a 6-0 ATS run in their last six NCAA Tournament games.
- The favorite is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
#7 Oregon Ducks #6 USC Trojans Predictions and Picks
Oregon and USC each cruised to a double-digit win in the second round to reach the Sweet 16. Now, they’ll get set to face off for the second time this season. USC won the only meeting, 72-58, as a 3.5-point favorite on their home court. The Trojans were dominant in the game with 35 rebounds, 13 on offense, and shot 10-21 from the three-point line. The Ducks could only muster 25 rebounds, with nine on offense, and they shot 7-17 from behind the arc. Despite winning the turnover battle 15 to 10, Oregon only managed to shoot 40% from the field while USC shot 49%.
The line for this game opened with USC as a one-point favorite, but bettors have now bet them up to two points as they’re getting 60% of the money despite only 40% of the tickets. I agree with the move because I don’t think there is much that Oregon will surprise USC with, given their familiarity with one another in the PAC-12 Conference.
If we look at the matchup, both teams play at relatively the same pace, with Oregon averaging 69.3 possessions per game while USC is at 70.3 per game. In terms of effective field goal percentage, which is adjusted to account for three-point field goals vs. two-point field goals, Oregon is slightly better at 54.8% than USC at 52.7%. The big equalizer will be what happens at the other end of the court as the Trojans are 23rd in defensive efficiency — allowing opponents .915 points per possession. At the same time, Oregon is ranked 130th in allowing .979 points per possession.
One of Oregon’s strengths is its three-point shooting. They average 8.5 three-pointers per game, but they shot below their average with seven three-point field goals on the day in the first meeting. USC has done a good job with their perimeter defense in the tournament thus far. In the first two games, they’ve held their opponents to six and seven three-pointers, respectively. The Ducks will need to get into the double-digits in terms of three-point field goals to have a chance to win this game. But since they’re unlikely to speed up the tempo to turn this into a higher-scoring game, this pace is more likely to favor the Trojans.
This game’s total opened at 139, but sharp money has pushed it down to 138. The fact that the under is attracting attention should bode well for the Trojans. Fewer possessions in the game will also highlight the importance of rebounding the basketball, and not many teams are better than USC as they ranked 17th with 39.5 rebounds per game. USC’s ability to rebound the ball on the offensive end will also be key in a game projected to have fewer possessions. USC is 39th with 10.3 rebounds per game, while Oregon is 179th with 8.2 per game. We saw this very scenario play out in their first meeting with Oregon getting outrebounded on the offensive glass 13 to 9.
In a series where the favorite has won nine of the last eleven meetings, I’ll gladly take the better defensive team, which’s also the better rebounding team in the matchup. My model shows a slight edge to the Trojans in this matchup, but I think USC’s improved three-point shooting will also play a factor as their average of 8.3 three-pointers in their last three games is above their season average 6.5 per game.
Lay the short price with the USC Trojans to reach the Elite Eight.
The Pick: Trojans -2