Best College Football Player Prop Bets for Saturday, September 11
Best College Football Props for September 11
In the first edition of this weekly player props column last week, it was a clean sweep across the board as we finished 3-0. Talk about a great start to the season! Let’s see if we can find some more winners as we take a look at the best player props in college football for Saturday, September 11.
Iowa vs. Iowa State
The Bet: Iowa State running back Breece Hall OVER 96.5 rushing yards
Breece Hall is one of the best running backs in college football. After a monster 2020 season in which Hall ran for 1,572 yards and 21 touchdowns, he’s as much of a household name in the college football universe as any Cyclone player is ever likely to be. He’s a bonafide star.
So, how do we end up with this low of a total for his rushing yards prop? The likely explanation is that this is a game featuring two good defenses that is expected to be low-scoring, as the game total currently sits at only 46.5.
While this is a strong Iowa defense year in and year out, they have a very green and inexperienced defensive front after losing three starting defensive linemen and a key linebacker (Nick Niemann) from a year ago. This is still a strong defense, don’t get me wrong, but teams will look to take advantage of the new faces along the defensive front.
Expect Iowa State to use that same approach, as running the ball is their bread and butter offensively. The coaching staff has made getting him the ball a priority, as he’s seen 20 carries or more in 10 of his last 12 games. He’s the focal point of this offense. The volume will be there.
Since Breece Hall took over lead-back duties for the Cyclones’ in the fifth game of 2019, he’s gone past this 96.5 rushing yards threshold in 15 of his 21 games. That’s a remarkable clip and there’s definite value in playing the over here.
We’re taking Breece Hall OVER 96.5 rushing yards at FanDuel’s Sportsbook.
Texas A&M vs. Colorado
The Bet: Texas A&M running back Isaiah Spiller OVER 101.5 rushing yards
After cashing all three bets on the under in last week’s article, what is making us start Week 2 with two straight plays to the over? The simple answer is that that’s where the value lies on this week’s slate.
Spiller has routinely gone over this mark, as he’s rushed for 102 yards or more in 7 of his last 11 full games played (excluding the bowl game last year when he only played for a few series). He’s been remarkably consistent, and keep in mind that nearly every one of those games came against SEC competition.
He gets a nice matchup here against a Colorado defense that gave up 55 points the last time they played an FCS team. The Buffaloes allowed 182 rushing yards per game a season ago on 5.5 rushing yards per carry, so expect Spiller to find little resistance in consistently keeping the chains moving.
We’re taking Isaiah Spiller OVER 101.5 rushing yards at FanDuel’s Sportsbook.
Washington vs. Michigan
The Bet: Michigan wide receiver Cornelius Johnson UNDER 61.5 receiving yards
Finally, we get back to our unders with a play on the Wolverines wideout.
Since becoming a regular in the offense at Michigan, Johnson has gone under this mark in three of his five games. Although he’s expected to take on a larger role in the offense following the news that teammate Ronnie Bell will be out for the season with a right knee injury, there aren’t enough other playmakers in this offense to take away attention from Johnson. Washington will be able to key in on Johnson with the lack of other threats out wide.
This is a Michigan offense that inspires little confidence after steadily decreasing their points per game over the past three seasons (35.2 in 2018, then 31.7 in 2019, and 28.3 in 2020).
They get a tough matchup here against a salty Washington secondary that allowed only 185 passing yards a season ago. Led by star corner Trent McDuffie and aided by the addition of Oklahoma transfer Brendan Radley-Hiles, this is expected to be one of the top secondaries in the country.
We’re taking Cornelius Johnson UNDER 61.5 receiving yards at FanDuel’s Sportsbook.
Year-to-date record: 3-0