Clippers vs Mavericks Game 3 NBA Betting Odds and Simulations
The NBA Playoffs continue Friday as the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks match up for Game 3 in their best-of-seven series. The series is tied 1-1 as the teams get set for Game 3.
Let’s look at where the value is at in this one.
- Clippers: -230
- Mavericks: +194
- Clippers -5.5: -110
- Mavericks +5.5: -110
- Over 231: -110
- Under 231: -110
Key Points to Consider
Outlook: The Clippers’ defense has been top-five all season, but the Mavericks got absolutely whatever they wanted in Wednesday night’s Game 2. The Clippers are still without guard Patrick Beverly (calf).
We will keep an eye on the Clippers’ efficiency from outside. In Game 2, they shot under 30 percent from beyond the arc.
Luka’s World: Luka Doncic is proving himself as one of the best players in league, while being one of the youngest. He played just 28 minutes in Game 2, but finished with 42 points.
Bench Play: Dallas’ bench shot 19-for-31 in Game 2, 61%. They more than likely won’t repeat that performance, but getting anywhere close to that level of production is crucial for the Mavericks if they want to pull off the upset.
ATS vs AccuScore: Despite the Game 2 blip, the Clippers have the momentum. They have covered the spread in five of their last six games vs Dallas, and are 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 overall. As you can see in our pick below, though, simulation data is picking against these trends.
For the LA Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is projected to finish with 21 points on 46% shooting, along with 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal and 2 TOs.
For the Mavericks, Luka Doncic is projected to finish with 28 points on 50% shooting, along with 9 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 steal and 4 TOs.
Mavs to cover.
We are always interested when AccuScore simulation data and offshore oddsmakers are on different sides of the money line. Whereas the Clippers are listed as clear favorites, the Mavericks actually win 56% of simulations – suggesting a ton of side value on the underdog. We will gladly take the points.
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