With the Final Four now set, the Baylor Bears will take on the Houston Cougars as a five-point favorite. Houston is a team that will scratch and claw their way to the finish line. They’ll try to slow the game down and muddy it up as best as possible to give themselves the best chance to defeat the Bears. The problem is that it likely won’t be enough against a very sound Baylor team.

This spread actually opened with Baylor as a four-point favorite, and sportsbooks immediately took sharp money on the Bears and moved the line up a point. Even at the current number, it’s probably still a bit short. It generally doesn’t work out well for teams that crash the Final Four, and this year, Houston would qualify as one of those teams. They likely wouldn’t have even reached the Sweet 16 if not for Rutgers’ epic collapse, who blew a nine-point lead with under five minutes left in the game.

Figure this, in the four games Houston has played thus far in the tournament, each opponent was a double-digit seed. Cleveland State was #15, Rutgers was #10, Syracuse was #11, and Oregon State was #12. Now they’ve got to face a Baylor team that many felt was the second-best overall team at the start of the tournament.

This is a real step up in class for Houston, and on Saturday night, don’t expect them to have any answers for this test.