Jazz vs Nuggets NBA Odds and Simulations
The NBA Playoffs tip off Monday afternoon as we get the postseason going with a slate of four games. The Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets get things started as the No. 6 and No. 3 seeds, respectively.
Let’s look at where the value is at in this one.
- Utah Jazz: +175
- Denver Nuggets: -200
- Utah Jazz +4.5: -110
- Denver Nuggets -4.5: -110
- Over 215.5: -110
- Under 215.5: -110
Key Points to Consider
Outlook: Utah and Denver match up for the second time in a weeklong span. Of course this has a lot more meaning, so we will not rely too much on what happened in the most recent matchup. Denver did sweep Utah in the regular season series.
Big Man Impact: With Bojan Bogdanovic still out, Rudy Gobert’s impact on the floor is even more valued, especially this time on offense. Through the regular season, the Jazz are close to 7 points better per 100 possessions with Gobert on the floor than when he is not.
Conley Out: It’s tough to look at the Jazz and imagine they win this Game 1. Denver is a better team overall, in general, and Utah will be without Mike Conley who left the state for the birth of his son.
All Eyes on Me: Denver’s Nikola Jokic, who averages 19.9 points, 9.7 rebounds and 8 assists per game, has seen some success vs Utah this season. Through three regular season contests, Jokic is averaging 29.3 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists per game vs Utah.
For Utah, Donovan Mitchell is projected to finish with 25 points on 46% shooting, along with 5 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 steal and 3+ TOs.
For Denver, Nikola Jokic is projected to finish with 17 points on 53% shooting, along with 8 rebounds, 6 assists and 1 steal.
Utah to cover, OR the UNDER.
Both are four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend picks. Average combined score in simulations is 210.1 points.
And we’re always interested when simulation data and odds-makers are on opposite sides of the money line. Utah actually wins more sims than does Denver; we’ll take the points, maybe even buying a half-point to make it a bit safer.
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