March Madness Betting Guide: National Championship
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for today’s games with guidance from our model.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you’re seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Under 159.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Gonzaga and Baylor gives us the championship matchup we have been craving since early this season. These are clearly the two best teams in college basketball, and we rank Gonzaga 1st (24.27 nERD) and Baylor 2nd (20.52 nERD), giving the Zags a slight edge.
Gonzaga is a perfect 31-0 this season, and most of their wins have been blowouts, but UCLA finally tested them in the Final Four, pushing that game into overtime before a Jalen Suggs buzzer-beating three-pointer won it for Gonzaga.
Baylor is 27-2 for the year, and they have been perhaps even more dominant than Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament, winning all their games by 9 points or more, including a 19-point blowout win over 5th-ranked Houston (18.30 nERD).
Our model projects a 76.08-73.46 win for Gonzaga, giving them a very slight edge in this matchup, but not a large enough one to warrant the 4.5-point betting line. We project a 56.01% likelihood of Baylor covering the spread at 4.5-points, making this a 1-star bet for Monday.
The game total is set for 159.5 points, which appears to be slightly high despite the strong offensive capabilities of both sides. We project a total of 149.54 points, almost 10 points below the actual betting line. As a result, our model loves the under here, giving it a 69.88% likelihood and making this a 4-star bet for Monday.