MNF: Falcons-Packers Betting Preview and Picks
The Atlanta Falcons travel to Lambeau Field in what has become the backend of a doubleheader on Monday Night Football after the matchup between the Chiefs and Patriots was postponed due to positive tests for COVID-19. Matt Ryan and the Falcons are looking for their first victory against a 3-0 Packers team led by a determined Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay sits as 7-point favorites against Atlanta. The offense has achieved a league-leading 6.9 yards per play and has scored 122 points across their three games this season. On the other side of the ball, Atlanta allows 6.4 yards per play, which puts them at 27th in the NFL. As for the Packers defense, they allow 6.6 — the worst in the league.
Green Bay has a strong ATS record of 59-42-2 at home since 2008, the season Rodgers took over as the starter. It’s a streak that has been kept alive due to the Packers faithful selling out every game since 1959. No fans will obviously be an effect, but the colder weather and travel will still be in play against the Falcons, a team who plays indoors at home.
Atlanta’s offense is no slouch either, with 90 points so far this season, good for sixth in the league. They are averaging more points than the Rams, Buccaneers, Patriots, and Cowboys. Their inability to close out games and defend is what makes them difficult to back in this spot. Until the defense can prove that they can consistently get off the field without allowing points, the Falcons should be a consistent stay-away. Their offense allows them to stay in games, but their defense continuously takes them out of them. Lay the points with the Packers and their strong record at Lambeau.
As previously mentioned, two teams with strong offenses and plenty of weapons versus struggling defenses makes it hard not to take a good look at the over here. The number is set at 57, one of the higher totals on the season in the NFL. The league-wide over trend continues its rapid pace through Week 4, and the books seem to be adjusting with eight of the 16 totals set at 50 or higher this week. With two quarterbacks who rarely no-show and a matchup where the Falcons offense could be playing from behind for a lot of the game, it’s hard to feel comfortable blindly betting the under due to the high total. The number has fallen slightly from its opening tally of 58, so holding out for more movement may be possible. But at this current number, a high total shouldn’t scare you away from riding the over.
The Picks: Packers -7, Over 57.
The Packers have allowed running backs to score multiple touchdowns in one game twice already this season when Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook both took it the house twice. Todd Gurley has already had two multiple touchdown games this season against Chicago and Seattle. At +550 to achieve the feat, it’s a great price for a clear lead back that will be getting plenty of looks at the goal line if and when the Falcons make it down there on the Packer defense.
Both quarterbacks are plus money to throw for over 2.5 touchdowns in the outing, something that could certainly be done by both of these high-powered offenses. It’s a good price, and it isn’t hard to visualize the winning quarterback with at least three touchdown passes. With so many chances for points against shady defenses, the play here is grabbing the over with both quarterbacks in the hopes of a shootout or one hitting and still leaving with a profit.
The Picks: Gurley to score at least two touchdowns (+550), Ryan over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+150), Rodgers over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+122).