NCAA Football Preview (9/7) – Arkansas vs Mississippi
September 6 / Accuscore / SportsGrid
Arkansas already has a chance to match last season's win total this early in the season as they head to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, MS for a matchup with Ole Miss. Rich Rodriguez and the home side will look to bounce back after a sub-par offensive performance in week 1.
Let's take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Ole Miss struggled in Week 1, finishing with just 174 total yards on offense against a Memphis defense that isn't known for being a stalwart. They didn't score a TD until the fourth quarter and converted on just 10 percent of third-down chances. All signs project them to bounce back this week at home.
While there is some hope Ben Hicks and Arkansas, their offensive unit just isn't talented enough to remain competitive against a team like Ole Miss. Hicks struggled in his first week, showing how inconsistent he can be with his aerial attack. Ole Miss doesn't have much of an offense to speak for either, but their defense should be able to contain the Razorbacks.
Betting on the Spread:
Odds indicate there's a 52 percent chance the Rebels cover a 6-point spread at home. That happens in close to 60 percent of simulations. The average margin of victory in sims is +10.2 points per game.
Ole Miss won this matchup last year, 37-33.
Ben Hicks is projected to finish with 178 passing yards on 15 completions for Arkansas. He averages 1.1 TDs and 0.4 INTs per sim.
Matt Corral is projected to finish with 258 passing yards on 19 completions. He averages 1.8 TDs and 0.6 INTs per sim.
Odds indicate there's a 52 percent chance the total combined score gets OVER 50.5. That happens in close to 75 percent of simulations. The OVER is a three-star (out of four) hot-trend pick. The average combined score in simulations is 61.6 points. Three-star (out of four) hot-trend pick.
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