We’ve got a pair of teams looking for their first win of the season this Saturday as Western Kentucky hits the road for a matchup with Florida International.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
More Odds at SportsGrid’s CFB Odds Tool
Western Kentucky: +235
Florida International: -300
Western Kentucky +7.5: -110
Florida International -7.5: -110
Over 55.5: -110
Under 55.5: -110
What to Watch For
Florida International is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last five conference games going back to last season, and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss overall.
In Week 1, Florida International QB James Morgan passed for 208 yards and one touchdown in the loss. The bigger issue for the team was a slow start as they fell behind 21-0 before making any sort a splash from their side. Look for them to be more aggressive early on in Week 2.
Last week’s result for Florida International was their third-straight year opening the season with a loss. They seem to rebound well, though, as they made bowl appearances in both of the last two seasons. Western Kentucky, on the other hand, is 1-5 ATS after a loss.
Ty Storey is projected to finish with 219 passing yards on 18 completions for Western Kentucky. He averages close to five times as many INTs per sim than TDs, though. Not a good sign for the offense – at least based on sim data.
On the other side, James Morgan is projected to finish with 257 passing yards on 25 completions. He averages close to two TDs per sim, to go along with 1.4 INTs per.
Florida International to cover.
Odds indicate Florida International has a 52.5 percent chance to cover the 7.5-point spread. That happens in close to 84 percent of simulations, suggesting some added side value on the pick. Their average margin of victory in sims is +26.4. Three-star (out of four) hot-trend pick.
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