NFL Draft Betting Odds: Offensive Line Rankings and Props
While fantasy fanatics get hype for where quarterbacks and wide receivers are selected, perhaps no position is as important as offensive linemen in the NFL Draft. While the wide receiver position in the 2020 NFL draft class is deep, no position is expected to have more players drafted than offensive linemen with over/under betting markets set at 6.5 players being drafted in the 1st round.
At Fanduel Sportsbook the betting market carries -102 juice to the over and -124 juice to the under, while at DraftKings Sportsbook that same betting market carries a -121 price to the over and a +100 price to the under. This is important for bettors because it creates a very low synthetic hold. Ed Miller discusses this concept in his book The Logic of Sports Betting and it outlines how if you have an opinion, finding low synthetic hold markets can create positive expected value.
Leveraging data at Grinding the Mocks as well as betting market consensus, there are four locks to be 1st rounders. Tristan Wirfs (Iowa), Mekhi Becton (Louisville), Jedrick Wills (Alabama), and Andrew Thomas (Georgia) are all slam dunk 1st round picks and all candidates to be in the top 10 NFL draft picks. Deeper down the 1st round, Josh Jones (Houston) and Austin Jackson (USC) are also expected to be Top 25 selections. Whether or not this number stays over or under 6.5 depends on those two players, and if a team reaches on Isaiah Wilson (Georgia), Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) or other names projected outside of the 1st round.
2019 – 4
2018 – 6
2017 – 2
2016 – 7
2015 – 7
2014 – 5
2013 – 9
2012 – 4
2011 – 8
2010 – 6
In the last decade, six times there have been less than six linemen drafted, and four times there have been more. Just some more context to our player specific conversation.
Given the low synthetic hold, I like betting UNDER 6.5 +100 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Odds to be the First Offensive Lineman Drafted
Other popular betting markets for the offensive line position include the odds to be the first offensive lineman drafted. These markets exist at both Fanduel (FD) and DraftKings (DK) with different odds, so make sure to shop around for the best price.
- Tristan Wirfs (+100 DK / +110 FD)
- Jedrick Wills (+225 DK / +250 FD)
- Mekhi Becton (+325 DK / +400 FD)
- Andrew Thomas (+600 DK / +750 FD)
Of the top four most likely players to be drafted, Fanduel Sportsbook offers better odds for the bettor on all four of them. If I was going to bet on anyone I would consider a stab on Andrew Thomas.
PFF has the Georgia OT ranked as their top OL prospect and I already wagered as a longshot for the New York Jets 1st round pick. However, given the efficiency of the market here, I believe the odds are roughly in the right order and think this betting market is a pass.
LOOKING TO MAXIMIZE YOUR EXPECTED VALUE? NEW USERS CAN GET UP TO $1000 IN BONUS OFFERS WHEN SIGNING UP FOR AN ACCOUNT AT DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK