NFL Draft Betting Odds: Quarterback Rankings, Picks and Values
Amongst all the fantasy-relevant offensive positions this year, the quarterback position is the only one with a true consensus first player taken: Joe Burrow. Even so, there are dozens of betting markets available for the NFL Draft and you can bet everything from Over / Under draft selections to the quarterback starting Week 1 for selected NFL franchises. In this article, we will break down how to bet the QB position for the 2020 NFL Draft.
With mock drafts like ours popular across all corners of the internet, one angle we can take is trying to understand how good mock drafts have historically been at pegging the top selection at a given position.
Top Quarterbacks Selected Last Ten Years
2010: Sam Bradford (R1, Pick 1), Tim Tebow (R1, Pick 23), Jimmy Clausen (R2, Pick 48)
Regardless of mock, Bradford was the consensus top QB in the draft and there was a clear tier drop from him to Tebow/Clausen.
2011: Cam Newton (R1, Pick 1), Jake Locker (R1, Pick 8), Christian Ponder (R1, Pick 12)
Most mocks had Newton going first amongst QBs but others viewed Locker as the best pure QB in the class.
2012: Andrew Luck (R1, Pick 1), Robert Griffin III (R1, Pick 2), Ryan Tannehill (R1, Pick 8)
Another pretty close to consensus top QB year where Luck and Griffin clearly comprised the top tier but Luck appeared to be the generational talent.
2013: E.J. Manuel (R1, Pick 16), Geno Smith (R2, Pick 39), Mike Glennon (R3, Pick 73)
This was the strange outlier year for QBs where none with in the top 15 picks and only one went in the first round. Many were projecting zero QBs in the first round so even one going in the first 16 picks was a bit of a surprise.
2014: Blake Bortles (R1, Pick 3), Johnny Manziel (R1, Pick 22), Teddy Bridgewater (R1, Pick 32)
Probably the craziest year for mock drafts as the field was unsure which QB to rank where. Teddy Bridgewater was even considered the top QB in the class by some.
2015: Jameis Winston (R1, Pick 1), Marcus Mariota (R1, Pick 2), Garrett Grayson (R3, Pick 75)
Winston and Mariota were the consensus top two but opinions differed on which should have been drafted first.
2016: Jared Goff (R1, Pick 1), Carson Wentz (R1, Pick 2), Paxton Lynch (R1, Pick 26)
Goff was near the consensus QB1 in mock drafts and was selected first overall.
2017: Mitchell Trubisky (R1, Pick 2), Patrick Mahomes (R1, Pick 10), Deshaun Watson (R1, Pick 12)
Like 2014, the
2018: Baker Mayfield (R1, Pick 1), Sam Darnold (R1, Pick 3), Josh Allen (R1, Pick 7)
Mayfield was the consensus QB1 in mock drafts and was selected first overall.
2019: Kyler Murray (R1, Pick 1), Daniel Jones (R1, Pick 6), Dwayne Haskins (R1, Pick 15)
Murray was the consensus QB1 in mock drafts and was selected first overall.
TAKEAWAY: IN YEARS WHERE THERE IS A CONSENSUS NUMBER ONE OVERALL QB IN MOCK DRAFTS, THEY ARE ALMOST ALWAYS TAKEN FIRST OVERALL IN THE DRAFT AND FIRST AMONGST QBS. THE MOCKS SEEM TO BE STRONG INDICATORS OF IDENTIFYING THE TOP OPTION AT THE POSITION.
UNFORTUNATELY, SINCE THIS SEEMS TO BE A CONSENSUS TOP QB YEAR, THERE IS VERY LITTLE VALUE IN BETTING JOE BURROW AS THE FIRST QB OFF THE BOARD.
NFL Draft Odds
NFL Draft Odds to be the 1st Quarterback Drafted
Joe Burrow -10000
Tua Tagovailoa +800
Justin Herbert +1200
Note: Burrow is such a favorite that these bets are not offered on FD
Unlike some of the other positions, this is not amongst the most interesting props to attack due to the crazy odds. As seen above, some sites are not even offering this bet. The longshot approach to Burrow would be taking around a +800 shot on him to be the second overall pick in the draft but even that is probably a ridiculous longshot given the history of sure-thing QBs drafted first overall. Instead, try attacking this bet…
Over / Under 4.5 QBs Selected in the First Round
Over 4.5 +320 FD / +340 DK
Under 4.5 -460 FD / -455 DK
If going to play a favorite, the odds on this bet are much more favorable than any Burrow-specific bets and the under is a strong play. In a draft that is historically loaded at the WR position, it seems unlikely teams would be in a hurry to stockpile risky QBs at the end of the round (as opposed to top-tier WR talents with this class being expected to give the 2014 WR class a run for its money).
Over the course of the last decade, here are the number of QBs that have been selected in the first round by year:
2010 – 2
2011 – 4
2012 – 4
2013 – 1
2014 – 3
2015 – 2
2016 – 3
2017 – 3
2018 – 5
2019 – 3
Essentially, the over has hit just once time during a 10-year span, and that draft included such names as Baker Mayfield (CLE), Sam Darnold (NYJ), Josh Allen (BUF), Josh Rosen (MIA) and Lamar Jackson (BAL), who, by the way, was selected with the 32nd pick of the round. Even the most aggressive mock drafts this year seem to have just four in the round, so the under appears to be the sharp play, and users will want to hunt for the best odds before placing the bet.
Tua Tagovailoa Over / Under NFL Draft Betting Odds
Amongst the top three QBs, Tagovailoa is clearly the biggest question mark as his talent level is similar to the likes of Burrow but his hip is giving teams pause. The hip dislocation Tagovailoa suffered is an extremely rare injury for a QB, especially one at the college level, and injury expert Will Carroll believes ex-NFL TE Dennis Pitta is the most direct comparison. It took Pitta four months to return from his injury in 2013 but he never returned to the same level of play and scored just two TDs in his 15 remaining NFL games (across two seasons). Mind you, Pitta was 28 at the time of the injury, and Tagovailoa was only 20. Reportedly, a top-10 team in the NFL Draft failed Tagovailoa’s physical and was concerned that he was “not ready to go,” “brittle,” and “flunked” the physical. If trying to remain confident on betting an under number on his draft pick, these reports are a kick in the you know where.
However, recently, Tagovailoa held a private pro day and posted the footage online to alleviate the concerns surrounding this injury. Mixed reaction trickled in including Pro Football Doc on Twitter suggesting he should be ready to play football in the fall and any decision to not start him would rest on an organization.
His current O/U at both DK and FD is 3.5 with over being the sizeable favorite (-192 on FD and -167 on DK). That seems pretty high, considering the risks being associated with Tagovailoa, and the fact that the second QB in a draft has gone before pick 3.5 only four times in the last decade…none of which had the injury risk associated with Tagovailoa. Therefore, the more likely outcome is Tagovailoa is selected with the fourth pick of the draft or later, and -167 on DK especially does not accurately reflect the injury uncertainty.