NFL Draft Betting Odds: Wide Receiver Rankings, Picks and Values
The 2020 NFL Draft class is loaded at the wide receiver position and betting markets have set a variety of props on the over/under for the number of wide receivers being drafted in the first round. At Fanduel Sportsbook, the prop offered is over/under 6.5 players with a +192 price offered for the over and -260 price for the under. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the line is over/under 5.5 players with -250 juice to the over and a +200 price to the under.
Using these markets would leave the consensus at six wide receivers being drafted in the first round including two members of the Alabama Crimson Tide, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III.
NFL Draft Odds to be the 1st Wide Receiver Selected
- Jerry Jeudy (+125 FD / +110 DK)
- CeeDee Lamb (+150 FD / +140 DK)
- Henry Ruggs III (+270 FD / +225 DK)
Jeudy and Ruggs are two of the consensus top three picks at the position, joined by Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb. The odds posted above highlights the importance of price shopping, as Fanduel is currently offering the best price available on each of the top three options. Moving beyond the consensus big three, DraftKings is offering the best price on longshot wide receivers including Justin Jefferson (+10000), Denzel Mims (+10000), Tee Higgins (+15000), Jalen Reagor (+15000), and Laviska Shenault (+15000).
Who will go be the first wide receiver drafted?
The trend in the consensus picks is shown above and represents a lot of movement we have seen with Ruggs in particular gathering steam. In fact, across hundreds of mock drafts at Grinding the Mocks, Ruggs now has an expected draft position of 11.7 versus 12.5 for Jeudy and 13 for Lamb. Because of this, if I had to pull the trigger on one wide receiver bet for the first round it would be Henry Ruggs III at +270.
Denzel Mims: A Longshot Value?
If there is one wide receiver who makes the case for a longshot bet, it is Denzel Mims at 100-1 odds. It is extremely unlikely that he can pass the big three, but Mims lower limit on his expected draft position is 13.1 while the upper limit on the big three is in the same spot.
Mims outperformed Jeudy and Lamb in combine metrics including the 38.5 inch vertical, shuttle and broad jump, while also bringing more size to the table. I think this betting market is mostly a pass for me but if there was a longshot value to bet it would be Mims.
2020 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Over/Under Draft Position
The last common betting market you’ll see is over/under markets on some of the aforementioned wide receivers for their draft position.
- Jerry Jeudy O/U Pick 12.5
- Ceedee Lamb O/U Pick 13.5
- Henry Ruggs O/U Pick 14.5
- Justin Jefferson O/U Pick 21.5
There are individual markets for all of the consensus top picks, as well as LSU star WR Justin Jefferson. The over/under markets here seem mostly efficient, however, and thus lack value.
The last intriguing market for betting the wide receivers can be found on PointsBet, where you can use the special “pointsbetting” framework which allows you to bet over/under but be rewarded based on the size of your win or loss. For example, if you were to bet Justin Jefferson under Pick 22, and he was drafted with the 16th pick, you would win 6x your stake, while if he was drafted with the 28th pick, you would lose 6x your stake.
This creates a fun environment for betting the draft especially if you think there are players with asymmetric risk, and Henry Ruggs could be the perfect scenario for this by betting OVER pick 14. While it is possible Ruggs goes first at the position, most places would expect the first wide receiver off the board to land at Pick 11 to the Jets, or Pick 12 to the Raiders. Your downside risk in this Ruggs scenario would be a 3-4x loss of your stake, and if Ruggs does fall it could be to Pick 19 (also the Raiders) for a 5x win or even further.
For a similar fall, look no further than DK Metcalf last year who was on average expected to go in the late 1st round, but actually fell to the Seahawks with Pick 66. In 2018, we had a scenario where Ridley (22), Moore (24), and Sutton (25) were similarly clustered. Moore ended up going with the 24th pick, Ridley the 26th, while Sutton fell to Pick 40. You could even consider multiple pointsbets if you felt the position had asymmetric risk more than any individual player.
In general, betting the wide receiver position offers a lot of entertainment value but I find it more efficient than some of the other betting markets. If I was going to bet on the wide receiver position, I’d consider a PointsBet on Henry Ruggs
LOOKING TO MAXIMIZE YOUR EXPECTED VALUE? NEW USERS CAN GET UP TO $1000 IN BONUS OFFERS WHEN SIGNING UP FOR AN ACCOUNT AT DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK