It’s a quick turnaround for the Cincinnati Bengals as they host the Arizona Cardinals at Paul Brown Stadium Sunday afternoon. Both teams look for their first win of the season as Week 5 kicks into high gear.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Arizona Cardinals: +138
Cincinnati Bengals: -160
Arizona Cardinals +3: -105
Cincinnati Bengals -3: -115
Over 47.5: -110
Under 47.5: -110
What to Watch For
Arizona’s struggles to start the season can be largely directed at their inability to protect the QB. Kyler Murray has been sacked at least three times each game so far, having been sacked a total of 20 times heading into this weekend’s matchup. Not surprising that he has thrown 4 INTs given that sort of pressure.
Cincinnati just doesn’t have any weapons for QB Andy Dalton to throw to. A.J. Green has been out all season with an ankle injury, and now the Bengals are also without WR John Ross who hurt his shoulder on Monday. Before his injury, Ross was averaging 20.5 yards per reception.
Going back to last season, Arizona is 5-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last eight road games. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games vs teams with a road record under .500.
Betting on the Total:
Average total score in sims is 44 points. The UNDER hits in close to 59 percent of simulations. Three-star (out of four) hot trend pick.
Arizona’s Kyler Murray is projected to finish with 281 passing yards on 23 completions to go along with 36 rushing yards on 6 carries. He averages 1.7 TDs and 0.7 INTs per sim.
Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton is projected to finish with 245 passing yards on 18 completions. He averages 1.2 TDs and 0.6 INTs per sim.
We’re always interested when simulation data and oddsmakers are on opposite sides of the money line. Whereas the odds indicate the Bengals are slight favorites, sim data has the Cardinals winning 51 percent of matchups.