Green Bay comes in after a 34-27 home loss vs Philadelphia while Dallas looks to back on track after a 12-10 loss at New Orleans.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this matchup.
Green Bay Packers: +152
Dallas Cowboys: -176
Green Bay Packers +3: +100
Dallas Cowboys -3: 120
Over 46.5: -120
Under 46.5: +100
What to Watch For
Green Bay’s offense last week was just fine, but their defense was far below average. After giving up a combined 35 points through the first three weeks, they gave up 34 last week to Philly.
In last week’s matchup vs the Saints, Dallas turned the ball over three times while just forcing one turnover themselves. That sort of a turnover margin just isn’t going to get it done.
Green Bay’s ground game must get better. They have just 19 first downs on the ground this season. RB Aaron Jones leads the way for them with four TDs on the season. 59 carries for 195 total yards through four weeks isn’t anything to write home about, though.
Containing Aaron Rodgers:
The Cowboys defense seems to be improving as the season matures, but they’ll have to be at their best this Sunday vs Aaron Rodgers. They’re coming off a week in which they had five sacks, but they had recorded just five sacks total through the previous three weeks. Dallas’ defense has just one interception on the season.
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is projected to finish with 286 passing yards 23 completions to go along with 17 rushing cards on 3 carries.
Dallas’ Dak Prescott is projected to finish with 264 passing yards on 19 completions to go along with 24 rushing yards on 3 carries.
Dallas to win.
Going back to last season, Dallas is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) after a week in which they had less than 90 rushing yards. Odds indicate the Cowboys have a 63.7% percent chance to win. They win approximately 65 percent of simulations. The average score in sims is 28-22.