NFL Week 1 Opening Odds Analysis
Let’s look at a few games that are sure to draw a lot of attention in the NFL’s opening week.
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Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: Chiefs -9.5, over/under 53.5
One wager you’re sure to win this week… is betting the public will be highly active on this game. Thursday night football: the first game of the season, featuring the Super Bowl champion Chiefs against a high-powered Texans offense.
KC has a few nice recent trends going for them — in their last eight games as a favorite, the Chiefs boast a 7-0-1 record and have failed to cover just once in their last 11 games.
Arrowhead has been as friendly a confine as anywhere for the Chiefs, who are 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in their past seven games and 5-0-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last six at home.
Further, September has been a good month for head coach Andy Reid. His offense has hit the over in six of their last seven early Fall games. At this point, there are no impact players on each side expected to miss Thursday night’s opener.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Odds: Saints -4, over/under 49.5
Another sure-win wager this week? Take the over on the number of eyeballs staring at Tom Brady and the new-look Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.
While many of the spread trends can mostly be ignored since Tampa’s offense has changed so drastically. The over could be a good play in this game.
Tampa Bay has surpassed the over in 10 of their last 12 games and the offense has got to be better with Brady, five-time pro bowler Rob Gronkowski, and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette.
The Saints make the case for the over even stronger as New Orleans has hit the over in each of their past six season openers. However, Week 1 has not been as kind to Drew Brees’s team while trying to cover the spread.
New Orleans is 0-6 ATS in their past six season debuts. While Alvin Kamara has been practicing, the elite back still does not have a new contract. Sides are said to be close to finishing the deal but pay close attention to contract talks this week. No Kamara, no more 4-point spread.
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Odds: Cowboys-3, over/under 51.5
The Cowboys playing on Sunday night is sure to bring in viewers and wagers. Dallas and Rams locked horns four times in the past six years, including twice in 2019. In all four meetings, points were scored at a premium, smashing the over each time. They averaged 14 points more than the total over that four-game span.
Dallas is fairly banged up coming into this one. Linebacker Sean Lee (undisclosed) is on injured reserve, Amari Cooper has been limited or sitting out of practice, and starting safety Xavier Woods is nursing a sore groin. Both players are tentatively expected to suit up.
Per usual, the Rams look healthy heading into Week 1.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants
Odds: Steelers -4.5, over/under 47.5
The Steelers have gone under in seven of their past eight games but don’t forget those were without Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben played just two games last year, and his return is sure to give the offense a shot in the arm.
The Giants on the other hand have hit the over in each of their past four home games. I usually love picking out a few home dogs each week, but the Giants won’t be one of them as they’ve only covered once in their last 11 at MetLife Stadium.
The post-Eli era will begin with a banged up and very thin receiving core. Wide receiver and punt returner, Golden Tate, is dealing with a hamstring injury and is considered day-to-day.
Make sure you go to FanDuel for all the Week 1 NFL odds.