NFL Week 11 Opening Odds Analysis
NFL Week 11 Opening Odds Analysis
Let’s take a look at a few games that are sure to draw bettors attention for Week 11. We will just be discussing the matchups; if you are looking for more concrete predictions and projections, be sure to check back throughout the week for our game picks.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Odds: Seahawks -3.5, O/U 56.5
Kyler Murray versus Russell Wilson is what prime time dreams are made of. The Arizona Cardinals have been terrific this year and sit at 6-3 on the season. Kyler Murray’s dynamic play has helped propel the upstart Cardinals to first place in their division. That they have still been able to thrive without superstar pass rusher, Chandler Jones is a testament to their depth on both sides of the ball. They are going to be in a dogfight all year in the NFC West, but if they keep rolling the way they have, they could certainly win the divisional crown.
The Seattle Seahawks have taken a major step back over the last four contests. The offense has struggled, with former MVP frontrunner Russell Wilson turning the ball over 10 times in the last four games alone. They still sit an excellent 6-3 on the season, but thanks to tiebreakers, despite having an identical record to the Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams, they sit in third place in their division. Carlos Dunlap has brought a spark to the pass rush, but Shaq Griffin is going to need to round back into form if the Seahawks are going to have a chance in the ‘second season.’
While there has not been any overnight line movement in the spread itself, we have seen the juice start to go up on the Seahawks. Both Arizona and Seattle have shown that they are indeed human over the last few weeks, so whichever team brings their ‘A’ game will likely walk away with the victory and the cover. Seattle is getting the home team three points plus another half-point, and if the early juice is any indication, we may see the Seahawks hit -4 before kickoff. The 56.5 over/under is sure to attract a lot of action, and not just because this is a prime time game on Thursday night. There are bound to be definitive leans generating action on both sides. It will be interesting to see where the total ends up.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Odds: Chiefs -7, O/U 55
Kansas City will get a chance to avenge the lone blemish on their record. The 8-1 Chiefs lost to the Raiders in Week 5, and while they have not been perfect elsewhere, it is fair to wonder if they could have pushed for an undefeated season if not for the embarrassing loss to their divisional rivals. Kansas City may be forced to play on wildcard weekend, as the Pittsburgh Steelers keep chugging along and will sit ahead of them in the standings until they lose a game. Still, the Chiefs are seen as the team to beat, and rightfully so. The road to the SuperBowl is still likely going to involve Kansas City, and they are going to be a tough beat for any team once they get their running game humming.
The 6-3 Las Vegas Raiders already have two statement wins on the season and will look to shock the world with another. Las Vegas has already beat the Chiefs this season and also hold a marquee win over the favorite to come out of the NFC in the New Orleans Saints. They are on a three-game winning streak, and their progress from last season has been nothing short of remarkable. This was supposed to be a three or four-year project, but Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden have been able to coax true synergy from their collection of talent, with the whole playing as more than the sum of their parts. Even if the Raiders end up losing at home, they have built up enough cache to be taken seriously. If they make the postseason, they will be a prime Cinderella candidate.
Kansas City opening as -7 point road favorites despite losing to the Las Vegas Raiders at home is sure to raise some eyebrows. Still, the books need to protect themselves, and that is likely what we are seeing here. There is no telling which way the bettor winds move this line, but one thing we can be certain of is that there will be notable movement. The 55-point over/under is a fair and well-set number that could help Vegas recoup their losses from the meeting between these two teams earlier this season. There is going to be significant sharp action prior to Wednesday, so don’t be surprised to see the line move one way or another by then.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: Buccaneers -3.5, O/U 48.5
The 6-3 Los Angeles Rams’ season prospects took a major hit on Sunday afternoon with star left tackle Andrew Whitworth going down with a torn MCL. There is some hope that he will be able to return this season due to his ACL being intact, but that will likely require the Rams still being in playoff contention with the season winding down. His loss is going to affect their ability to run the ball and also to protect Jared Goff. Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, being down your lone stud offensive lineman is not how you want to enter the contest. Due to the tiebreaker with the 6-3 Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles would be a wildcard team if the season ended today.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now 7-3 on the season after dispatching the Carolina Panthers in Week 10. They bounced back from an abysmal showing in Week 9 and will need to keep their foot on the gas against a well-coached Los Angeles Rams team. The Buccaneers defense will look to take advantage of Andrew Whitworth being sidelined, but this contest may very well come down to how well the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sometimes shaky offensive line can handle Aaron Donald, and the rest of the Rams pass rush. One way or another, we are going to get a lot of answers regarding how competitive the Buccaneers may be when the playoffs finally roll around.
The early action has already moved the juice for this contest, with the Rams at +3.5 tagged with -114 juice as of Monday morning. This could be a sign of potential forthcoming movement in the line itself, or simply FanDuel being responsive to some sharp action. There is a strong likelihood that the spread does see some movement throughout the week, though it could stand firm until the weekend, with the line being likely to attract significant action on both sides. The over/under total is quite interesting and is going to be moved sooner rather than later. Regardless of your lean, the number as currently set suggests value. This will be n interesting total to monitor, though under bettors my want to make a decision now.