NFL Week 4 Sharp Report
Balance is the name of the game in the NFL betting world. After three weeks, the favorites are 24-24 ATS, and the home teams are also 24-24 ATS. Despite the small sample size, it’s evident that home-field advantage is not a decisive trend in the NFL yet this season, and neither is being the team that’s supposed to win the game.
We have seen an uptick in scoring, as several games on the board this week have totals in the mid-’50s. The over is also cashing at a 60% clip through three weeks (29-19) as public bettors have enjoyed the scoring barrage. These sharp contrarian sides have not fared well either with a 1-5-1 record, so tread lightly with these angles as we sift through a unique season with NFL smart money.
That said, there are a few spots this week where some sharp money has pushed the line in one direction, despite the narrative pointing elsewhere.
Seahawks at Dolphins
This is a bad spot for Seattle. The Dolphins have had extra time to prepare for a banged-up Seahawks secondary with Adams and Dunbar questionable. Russell Wilson is obviously playing at an MVP level and is finally getting help on the outside with strong performances by Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. This game has all the makings of a shootout as the Seattle defense ranks last in passing yards allowed per game.
It could be a big day for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who showed a strong command of the offense on a short week last Thursday against the Jags. The public is not buying the Miami narrative, with over 85% of the tickets coming in on Seattle. Despite the one-sided action, the line is moving towards the Dolphins, a very strong indication of sharp reverse line movement. Wilson might have the last laugh, but I can see this game staying tight.
Pick: Dolphins +6
Patriots at Chiefs
It’s rare that New England is the contrarian side, but in this case, it applies. The Chiefs have come flying out of the gates and are fresh off a dominating performance against the top-rated Ravens. It should come as no surprise that the money is pouring in on Kansas City this week; however, the line has moved off the key number of seven with the Patriots getting less than a touchdown on the road.
FanDuel has shown zero inclinations to move New England back to a full touchdown underdog regardless of how much money comes in on the Chiefs this weekend. If anything, I can see this creeping even closer to six. In terms of the narrative, it fits. This is a letdown spot for Kansas City after their huge win over Baltimore. The Chiefs also had to put a lot on film in that game against the Ravens, and Andy Reid has one less day to prepare than Bill Belichick. Expect the Pats to go zone and force Mahomes to throw underneath. New England might not win outright, but they certainly can. Perfect spot to jump on the Patriots as a dog.
Pick: Patriots +6.5