NFL Week 6 Opening Odds Analysis
Let’s take a look at a few games that are sure to draw bettors attention for Week 6. We will just be discussing the matchups. If you are looking for more concrete predictions and projections, be sure to check back throughout the week for our game picks.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: -Ravens -7.5 O/U 47.5
The Baltimore Ravens are the angriest 4-1 team in recent memory. Still seething from their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, watching the Chiefs fall to a team they know they are better than in the Las Vegas Raiders has to be more salt in the wound. They are still down the head-to-head tiebreaker, and even find themselves in second place in their own division thanks to the hot start from the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Eagles should be an easy win for a relatively healthy Ravens squad, but they will need to be careful not to play down to the level of their competition.
The Philadelphia Eagles are 1-3-1 and have to be considered the favorites to emerge from the NFC East. Dak Prescott will likely be sidelined for multiple weeks, if not the season, which means if the Eagles can get some of their receivers healthy, they can stumble their way into the automatic playoff berth the ‘top’ team from the NFC East receives. The Eagles will be hoping for returns from DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery this week, while they will not be able to count on Jalen Reagor until potentially after their bye week. The offensive line remains in shambles as All-Pro guard Brandon Brooks and 2019 first-round pick and starting left tackle Andre Dillard are both on season-ending injured reserve.
Can the Philadelphia Eagles stay within seven points of the Baltimore Ravens? Each of their losses this season has come by nine or more points. They are 1-4 ATS on the season and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in their last seven road contests and are the much better team in this matchup. However, cross-conference matchups are often surprisingly competitive, and we saw proof of that in Week 5 with the Eagles being competitive with the Steelers, and Miami outright embarrassing the San Francisco 49ers. -7.5 is a well-set number for this contest. At -6.5 or even -7, Baltimore action would dominate, potentially putting FanDuel at a huge loss if the Ravens covered. At -7.5, the action should be more evenly (relatively) spread out. The total is at 47.5, which sounds low for a Ravens contest, but the number was probably set where it was based on the Eagles struggles this season. The under is 5-1 in the Ravens last six contests. The under is 5-1 in the Eagles last six contests as a home underdog.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds: Steelers -4, O/U 50
After the Browns’ Week 5 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, Baker Mayfield needed X-rays, but the scans came back negative. The last thing the team needed was for Baker to be added to the injury report, but here we are. The Browns have been excellent this season, with their only loss coming at the hands of the powerhouse Baltimore Ravens. They will be without Nick Chubb for this key matchup but will hope to be welcoming back defensive tackle Larry Ogunjubi and safety Karl Joseph. Getting cornerback Greedy Williams back could be a huge boost to a secondary that has allowed the AFC’s third-most points. The Browns may have a path to the playoffs even if they finish third in their own division but will be hoping to make it a three-team race with a win over the Steelers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are off to the best start in 40 years. They sit at 4-0 through five weeks of the season and may very well have been 5-0 by now if their Week 4 contest had not been postponed. The Steelers have not exactly beat a ‘Murderers Row’ of opponents, with not one team they have defeated projected to make the playoffs after five weeks of the season. The Browns should present their toughest test yet, and they may have to get by shorthanded. The Steelers saw receiver Diontae Johnson (back) and guard David DeCastro (abdomen) both get knocked from Week 5 with injuries. They will be limited at best in practices this week and may end being questionable for this contest.
The Steelers being listed as -4 favorites for this contest is not all that surprising. They are the best team (by winning percentage) in the AFC North through five weeks of play, and are playing at home. It should be a battle, but the Steelers have a brand new weapon in Chase Claypool, who will be a problem for many defenses, especially one dealing with so many injuries. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two teams. The over/under makes sense as these two teams allow a combined 50 points per game and score a combined 60.7 points per game. The over has been hit in each of the Browns last four contests and in four of the Steelers’ last five contests.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: Packers -1.5, O/U 52.5
The 4-0 Green Bay Packers have been excellent this season. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones have been able to power them to victories despite superstar Davante Adams only playing one full week of action (he was injured in Week 2). Adams has been chomping at the bit to get back on the field, even going as far as to call out the team’s medical staff in a now-deleted tweet suggesting that he was ready for Week 4, but that the team would not clear him. Green Bay is one of two remaining undefeated teams in the NFC (Seattle), and taking a look at their schedule; it is fair to wonder if whispers of a potential 16-0 season have not started to make the rounds in the state of Wisconsin.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-2 on the season and (currently) sit in first place in the NFC South. They could fall to second place by the end of Monday Night Football, but what has become clear is that the Buccaneers are going to be able to compete this season. They may not be true SuperBowl contenders yet, but the defense certainly seems up to the task. The offense will have to catch up, but they should be able to do just that when players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy, Justin Watson, and Scott Miller get healthy. Their injury report reads like a list of the Buccaneers skill players, with Godwin, McCoy, and Watson all being inactive for Week 5, and Fournette only active as emergency depth. It is playoffs or bust for Tampa Bay, and they should be able to get there if they can get healthy. Beating Green Bay would represent a statement game.
The Green Bay Packers are small road favorites in what should be a competitive contest. There is no telling which team will generate the higher handle, but if early public action is any indication, Green Bay will generate the majority of the interest for this contest. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS on the season and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with winning records. Tampa Bay is 2-3 ATS on the season. The 52.5 total seems higher than one would expect, but should still attract plenty of action on both sides. The over is 5-1 in Green Bay’s last six contests. The over is 8-1 in Tampa Bay’s last nine home contests. These two teams have scored a combined 65.8 points per game this season and have allowed a combined 47.9.
Be sure to check out the rest of Week 6’s NFL lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.