NFL Week 7 Opening Odds Analysis
NFL Week 7 Opening Odds Analysis
Let’s take a look at a few games that are sure to draw bettors attention for Week 7. We will just be discussing the matchups; if you are looking for more concrete predictions and projections, be sure to check back throughout the week for our game picks.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: Eagles -6, O/U 45.5
The New York Giants stumbled their way to their first win of the season, with a late-game fumble return for a touchdown being the reason they now find themselves in the win column. Sophomore quarterback Daniel Jones managed to throw his first touchdown since Week 1, but after flashing promise in his rookie season, it has looked like the player many thought would last until the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft.
The Giants season would be all but lost if not for playing in the NFC East. They do not have much of a chance statistically, but with Andy Dalton under center for the Cowboys with a defense that will force him to score, the entire NFC East is in the hunt. Now 1-5 on the season, the Giants will be looking to ruin the Eagles plans of catching the Cowboys and will hope they have the talent to do so themselves.
The Philadelphia Eagles are still dealing with massive injury issues. We all know that they lost two of their starting offensive linemen for the season in All-Pro Brandin Brooks and talented sophomore Andre Dillard. Many know that Alshon Jeffrey has yet to play a game and that Jalen Reagor has been placed on injured reserve. DeSean Jackson was held out of yet another game in Week 6, but it appears the Eagles did that knowing that he would be ready for Thursday Night Football’s divisional tilt. This past Sunday brought more injury news for the Eagles faithful as Miles Sanders was knocked from the game with a knee injury, and Zach Ertz left with an ankle injury. There were more injuries as rookie K’Von Wallace went down with a shoulder injury, while Malik Jackson went down with a quad issue. Now 1-4-1 on the season, the Eagles have three divisional games in a row that can help boost them back up the standings in the NFC East.
The -6 line for this contest seems large but fair. The Eagles have been the (slightly) better team this season and will get top receiver DeSean Jackson back. As long as Miles Sanders’ injury does not prove to be serious, the Eagles will have a chance at covering. However, there could very well be almost equal action on both sides of this contest, as bettors will no doubt see some inherent value colored by their initial lean.
The 45.5 number is extremely fair for two teams that have struggled to move the ball. The Eagles and Giants have combined for just 40.3 points per game this season but have allowed a combined 54.4 points per game. It will be interesting to see if a bad offense or bad defense wins out in this game.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans
Odds: Steelers -1.5, O/U 52.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are now 5-0 after embarrassing the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. They exposed them as pretenders and will now set their sights on the only other undefeated team left in the AFC. In the NFL, sometimes, when you win, you can also lose, and that was the case in Week 6, as the Steelers lost Devin Bush for the season with what is feared to be a torn ACL. Bush had become a key cog in the middle of the field, and his loss could show up in a massive way against the Titans run game.
Wide receiver Diontae Johnson missed the game but appeared close enough that he is expected to play in Week 7. Barring a collapse of epic proportions, the Steelers have all but punched their ticket to the postseason; the schedule gods were kind, with only a handful of playoff teams on the schedule to begin with. Riding high after just their second 5-0 start in franchise history, the Steelers will need to buckle down as they have two of the NFL’s best on the docket for Week 7 and Week 8.
The Titans have been rolling since their bout with the coronavirus, walking away seemingly galvanized from the whole ordeal. Now 5-0 after winning two games in five days, the Titans will get their toughest test of the season against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are one of the lone potential losses on the schedule for the Titans, with the Ravens and the Packers being the only other teams that will likely be favored against them all season.
They thought the Bills would give them a test on Tuesday Night Football, but that turned out to be a laugh-fest. The Titans seem to have almost all of their players activated off the reserve/COVID list, with Corey Davis seemingly the lone key player still missing. Derrick Henry got it going in a big way in Week 6, after being made to look human in Week 5. He ran for over 200 rushing yards and will be a critical component to the Titans hopes of becoming the last remaining undefeated team in the AFC. However, he will have to do so with both of his starting tackles from 2019 with Jack Conklin in Cleveland, and Taylor Lewan feared to be lost for the season after suffering what is expected to be a torn ACL against Houston.
The -1.5 spread for this contest is going to change. It could have already been moved by the time you read this. The sharps will have a definitive take on this contest after five weeks of action to observe (both teams had COVID fueled byes), and FanDuel remains one of the most responsive sportsbooks and is often among the first to react to sharp action.
Where this spread ends up by game time is anyone’s guess, as movement in either direction would not surprise in the least. The 52.5 over/under is a large line, but both teams can put up points. They have combined for 64 points per game with the Titans at 32.8 and the Steelers at 31.2. As for points allowed, these two teams have combined for just 44 points allowed per game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Las Vegas Raiders
Odds: Buccaneers -2.5, O/U 53.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had quite the statement game against the Green Bay Packers, or rather the Buccaneers defense did. Tampa Bay took advantage of multiple short fields to go up 14-10 (after trailing 10-0) and proceeded to victimize the Packers offensive line, especially after All-Pro David Bhaktiari went down with an injury. For anyone who did not believe that the Buccaneers secondary was ready for the postseason due to youth and inexperience, their performance against one of the best to ever do it should change some minds. This is a young and talented unit that now gets to learn from a quarterback many view as the greatest of all time.
Being able to understand how a future Hall of Famer reacts to certain looks has propelled the Buccaneers’ development. Now 4-2, the Buccaneers are going to need to keep rolling in what has turned out to be a tougher than expected NFC South. The NFC is so strong that there may only be enough room for one team from the division to make the playoffs. With a loss to the Saints in Week 1, the Buccaneers need to keep their foot on the pedal.
The Las Vegas Raiders have looked better than expected for much of the season, though they did have a noticeable drop off when both of their hotshot rookie receivers were sidelined. Las Vegas had a bye in Week 6 but are still riding high after the marquee win of any team’s season over the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5. Las Vegas is in the realistic playoff hunt thanks to the key win and may not need any more true upsets to manifest their aspirations into reality. Sitting at 3-2 on the season, the Raiders have a relatively easy schedule remaining ahead of them. They could win up to 10 games this season if they can win both games against the Chargers. If they can beat the Buccaneers this week, they will have the entire NFL world buzzing. They may be a season or two early, but Mike Mayock and Jon Gruden are in the midst of building a competitive team in Las Vegas.
The -2.5 point spread (it opened as low as -2) is a sign of the respect Vegas has given the Raiders. With that being said, this game is going to be hammered all week and has been getting slammed overnight as well, so we will see some line movement soon, quite likely to -3 by the end of the day. We should see it pushed to -3.5 by Tuesday morning.
Jump on this line now if your lean is with the road favorites. The 53.5 spread is an interesting one to digest. Tampa Bay (29.5) and Las Vegas (30.2) have scored a combined 59.7 points per game this season while combining to allow 50.7 points per game. The total may not see as much movement as the spread will, but the Buccaneers defense’s incredible showing in Week 6 is sure to help to generate more under interest than usual.