NFL Week 7 Sharp Report
NFL Week 7 Sharp Report
We roll into Week 7 a winner on the sharp report as we hit our tease last week with Dolphins -3.5 and Ravens -1.5. The latter was much closer than expected. We will start keeping track of our picks for the rest of the season to gauge where these plays are landing on the profitability scale. As always, play responsibly; there’s no amount of sharp action which can guarantee a win. That being said, we are seeing the contrarian plays start to gain traction in the marketplace after the favorites and overs ruled for the first three weeks.
Scoring is still up league-wide, with the average combined score in NFL games at 50.7, compared to 44.65 at this point last season. To put that in perspective, there are six teams averaging 30 or more points so far this season, and only the Ravens finished the 2019 season with a scoring average over 30-plus. Underdogs went 9-5 ATS in Week 6 while the Underwent 10-4. That being said, let’s try to navigate these choppy waters and try to find some smart money in Week 7.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Despite this being an obvious get-right spot for Buffalo, the line is moving in New York’s direction. The public is also hammering the Bills, which makes the line shift even more curious. Injuries could be a factor as wide receiver John Brown and cornerback Josh Norman are out for Buffalo.
Meanwhile, the Jets are getting back quarterback Sam Darnold and rookie right tackle Mekhi Becton. Keep an eye on the status of Bills’ cornerback Tre’Davious White and top cover linebackerMatt Milano, who are both questionable. Perhaps the most troubling injury on either side is Jets wide receiver Jamison Crowder, who popped up unexpectedly on Thursday’s injury report with a groin issue.
Buffalo has dropped two in a row but gets the luxury of facing the Jets secondary ranked 31st in efficiency. Josh Allen spearheads a Bills offense ranked fourth in passing DVOA. The Jets futility is historic as they are the seventh team in the last 31 years to start a season 0-6 ATS. Those previous seven teams went 1-5-1 ATS in Week 7, so most continued to fall short of the number.
It’s tough to back the Jets here, but the line movement says we might have reached a saturation point. I would prefer to tease Buffalo in this spot as we are now getting it past the key number of seven rather easily.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team
This is another game with some pretty sharp reverse line movement. The public has been consistently betting Dallas throughout the week, yet the line continues to draft towards Washington. The key injury here is offensive lineman Zack Martin who will miss the game with a concussion. Washington has been solid on defense all season long and ranks seventh in overall DVOA.
Dallas has had trouble hanging onto the football as they rank last in turnover margin. Kyle Allen played relatively well on Sunday against the Giants with a 73.8 completion percentage and two touchdowns. Allen should have success against a Cowboys defense that ranks 29th in DVOA against the run. J.D. McKissic averaged 5.1 yards per carry against the Giants last week, and Terry McLaurin had 12 targets. Both are good options in the prop markets. This is another classic teaser spot getting Washington through three and seven.
Picks: Bills -5 / Washington +7.5 Teaser
Underdogs 48-43-1 ATS
Favorites -2.5 or less: 3-14 ATS
Favorites -6 or more: 21-19-1 ATS
Favorites -10 or more: 3-3-1 ATS
Divisional Favorite: 11-14 ATS
Primetime Underdogs 15-6 ATS (7-1 Last 7)
Primetime Over/Under 8-13
Weeks 1-3: 29-19 (60%)
Weeks 4-6: 17-26 (41%)
Week 6: 6-8
Season: 56-33-2 (63%)