NFL Week 8 Sharp Report
NFL Week 8 Sharp Report
The Sharp Report cashed our teaser last week with Buffalo and Washington coming through. The teaser was even more prevalent, considering the Bills did not cover the actual spread of 13.5. Crazy to believe we are almost halfway through the season, which means the lines are getting sharper by the week, and teasers become a more useful tool in the markets.
The underdogs are starting to bite back, going 8-5 last week and are 58-47 overall this season, cashing at a rate of over 55 percent. While the totals have normalized a bit, we are still seeing a dominant trend toward the first-half Over going 9-3 last week and cashing at an astounding rate of 64 percent this season.
We are also seeing a trend towards bigger spreads now that the better teams in the NFL are starting to separate themselves, but don’t be afraid of the heavy juice. In 44% of games this season, the team who covers has done so by double-digits, and every week for the last four weeks, at least five teams have covered a number by at least 10 points. This week, there is one big number on the card that we have isolated as a potential value spot.
Vikings at Packers
This is the most reverse line movement we’ve seen in a game this week besides maybe the Thursday night matchup between the Falcons and Panthers. The public is hammering Green Bay, yet the line refuses to cross the key threshold of seven and is actually inching towards Minnesota in some instances. When you break down this matchup’s analytics, it’s more even than you might think, especially defensively.
The Vikings are rank 15th in DVOA while Green Bay is 22nd. The Packers do have a slight advantage in net yards per play, ranking slightly ahead of the Vikings, but the return of Dalvin Cook should negate that. There is also a matchup advantage on the outside with Adam Thielen posting strong numbers against Jaire Alexander over the last four games between these two division rivals. Fading Aaron Rodgers is never fun, but there is statistical reasoning to do so here in addition to sharp line movement against Green Bay.
Pick: Vikings +6.5
Bucs at Giants
We’ve seen this line move steadily towards Tampa Bay all week, especially after news broke of the COVID concerns for New York’s offensive line. The Bucs defense continues to be the most dominant unit in the NFL, ranking first in DVOA and third in net yards per play. They are also covering the number at an impressive rate, with all four of their ATS victories this season coming by at least a touchdown.
There is no statistical metric that favors the Giants in this game, and I can’t see Daniel Jones having any success against this fierce Bucs’ front. Lay up to two touchdowns with confidence.
Pick: Buccaneers -12.5
Road teams: 58-47
Teams that see lines move in their direction: 59-38
Home favorites: 29-40
Favorites of -6 or longer: 24-20-1
Underdogs of +2.5 or shorter: 16-3 ATS (84%)
Double-digit favorite: 3-3-1
Divisional favorite: 12-18
Primetime Underdogs 17-7 ATS
Primetime Over/Under 9-15
Weeks 1-3: 29-19 (60%)
Weeks 4-7: 23-33-1 (40%