NFL Week 9 Opening Odds Analysis
NFL Week 9 Opening Odds Analysis
Let’s take a look at a few games that are sure to draw bettors attention for Week 9. We will just be discussing the matchups; if you are looking for more concrete predictions and projections, be sure to check back throughout the week for our game picks.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Odds: Packers -2.5, O/U 50.5
The Green Bay Packers are coming off an embarrassing loss against the Minnesota Vikings. The Packers may have played down to their competition, as they were essentially dominated by a team that has already punted its season. Now 5-2 on the season, this Thursday night matchup could prove pivotal with the 5-3 Chicago Bears still breathing down their necks in the NFC North. The Packers will be hoping to welcome Aaron Jones back, as he is simply on another level vis a vis Jamaal Williams. They will also need their defense to step up, as the Packers have an obvious weakness stopping the run, as their defense is stacked with pass rushers intended to be playing with a lead.
The San Francisco 49ers did not look good for much of Week 8. And that was before the injuries to George Kittle and Jimmy Garoppolo. The score was 27-7 heading into the fourth quarter (when both players were injured). San Francisco is hanging tough and sit at 4-4 despite their massive losses on the defensive line. The 49ers are also dealing with injuries to Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert and have seemingly been missing key pieces on both sides of the ball for most of the season. Tevin Coleman was also knocked from Week 8 with an injury suffered in the first half. San Francisco is in the hunt at 4-4, but a loss to the Packers could further put them behind the Los Angeles Rams or the Chicago Bears.
The -2.5 spread seems all but certain to see some movement. Both teams will be playing on a short week, which means that Kittle, Garoppolo, and Coleman will be questionable for Thursday Night Football. This spread would likely have seen movement at -5.5 if the home team was flipped, so that should help us to understand the difference between these two teams when both are on and healthy. The overnight juice is on the Packers. Speaking of overnight juice, it is on the over despite this contest being tagged at 50.5 points. Both teams saw at least 50 points scored in their Week 8 matchups, Both contests went over, but it should be noted that the under was hit in both team’s previous two contests.
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: Chiefs -12.5, O/U 50.5
The 7-1 Kansas City Chiefs had themselves a good laugh in Week 8, as they had the luxury of taking on the worst team in football in the New York Jets. They will have a tough test on their hands in Week 9, but it has become clear that the Chiefs are no longer a team that plays down to their competition. Kansas City is expected to get Sammy Watkins back for this weekend, giving them yet another weapon to dissect the Carolina Panthers with. The Chiefs will need to keep their foot on the pedal this season, especially with the expanded playoffs meaning that only one team gets the bye. With the Pittsburgh Steelers at 7-0, the Chiefs would be playing on wild card weekend if the season ended today. The loss to the Las Vegas Raiders is going to haunt the Chiefs until the Steelers lose at least two games, as Pittsburgh has the strength of schedule tiebreaker.
The Carolina Panthers have had an up and down season. The future appears bright if they can manage to hold onto offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but they still have some holes to fill to compete with one of the best teams in the league. Carolina will be hoping to welcome Christian McCaffrey back this weekend, as the game-changing running back has been out since Week 2 with a high ankle injury. The Panthers have lost three straight games and are now a 3-5 team after opening at an impressive 3-2 record. Carolina put forth a disappointing effort in Week 8 and will need to be at their best to have a chance at competing with the defending champions.
One of the marquee games of Sunday afternoon, the Chiefs are likely to generate a ton of casual bettor interest despite the high spread. With that said, it will likely be the sharps, and not the casuals, which dictate the line movement for this contest. Some may think that Vegas is getting a little too liberal with their Chiefs lines. If the early juice is any indication, this line is set to rise. At the moment, 50.5 points seems fair for this contest, given the potentness of the respective offenses and also the holes on each team’s defense. The early juice is on the over, but it is important to note that the under has been hit two of three of both the team’s last three contests overall.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds: Buccaneers -4, O/U 54.5
The battle for the NFC South is set to come to a head with the New Orleans Saints taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9. Tampa Bay and New Orleans are tied at 5-2, but the Saints have the head to head tiebreaker. New Orleans has won four games in a row despite being without superstar receiver Michael Thomas. They will be hoping to get him back this weekend, but hamstring injuries can prove to be tricky. Emmanuel Sanders and Marquez Callaway were also sidelined for Week 8, which meant the Saints had to take on the Bears with Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harris as their top two receivers. The Saints defense, thought to be a strength of their team, is going to need to show up on Sunday night. Heading into Week 9, they have allowed more points than any other NFC team with a winning record.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have really turned it on after a slow(ish) start to the season. Tom Brady is starting to settle in and has been able to navigate multiple injuries to star offensive players. Tampa Bay has lost players for the season on both sides of the ball, with Vita Vea and O.J. Howard down for the count. The offense has been strong this season, but anyone who taps the Buccaneers as the favorites to come out of the NFC likely does so due to their dominant defense rather than their exciting offense. They will have a chance to make a very loud statement against New Orleans in Week 9 and will be hoping to click on both sides of the ball in order to do just that.
While the NFL schedule often gives us some stinkers in prime time like we saw last week (and will see on Week 9’s edition of Monday Night Football), every now and then, the game of the week is left for one of those slots. This is one of those instances. The -4 spread is going to see action on both sides, and determining which way the sharps ultimately move the line is difficult in a bubble. The overnight juice suggests that Tampa Bay is getting the love from the sharps, so we could see this line moved to -4.5 or -5 by the end of Week 8’s edition of Monday Night Football. The 54.5 over/under is very interesting. We obviously have two of the most explosive offenses in the league going head to head (when healthy), but both teams also have defenses that are expected to help carry them at points this season. There were 57 points scored in the Week 1 matchup between these two teams, so the number could stay relatively steady with the sharps likely to be split on this one. We will see some movement by Sunday, but which way the line moves is a wildcard.