NHL Betting Guide: Wednesday 2/17/21
Road teams came out with something to prove last night, winning four of the five games. Unders were equally as profitable, hitting at 80.0%. There are five games scheduled tonight, one of which has a 5:00 pm EST puck drop.
Here’s what we’re looking at tonight!
Calgary Flames vs. Vancouver Canucks
Flames Moneyline (-152)
Although Vancouver was successful at limiting the Flames on home ice, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to duplicate that success on the road. The Canucks have posted a positive expected goals-for just once in 10 road games and remain one of the most porous defensive teams in the league.
Opponents average 30.5 scoring chances and 12.7 high-danger opportunities against the Nucks. Those numbers jump to 32.1 and 13.3, respectively, when the Canucks are the visiting team. That’s bad news for Braden Holtby, as the Flames are dangerous at home, averaging 29.5 scoring opportunities and 11.5 high-danger chances.
Calgary may have been lucky to win the first game of this four-game set and have Jacob Markstrom to thank for that, but they will have a pronounced advantage playing at home. They have posted a positive expected goals-for ratio in five of their six games and have limited opponents to an average of 7.8 opportunities from high-danger areas.
The Flames are the play to make in this one as they use home ice to their advantage against a Canucks squad that can’t seem to figure things out.
Detroit Red Wings vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Red Wings Moneyline (+120)
By Red Wings standards, Detroit has been on a bit of a roll recently. They have won two of their last five matchups while posting a positive expected goals-for ratio in three of those games, including when these teams met on Monday night.
Detroit was successful in limiting chances against, allowing 23 scoring chances, seven of which came from high-probability areas. Defensive structure has been a big part of the Wings’ schemes this season, as they have allowed seven or fewer high-danger chances in five of their last six games. The same is true for scoring chances, as opponents have managed more than 25 such opportunities just once in the last six games.
Chicago has been on a bit of a heater, going 6-1-1 since the end of January. But, if we’re relying on game scores, the Hawks might have just about exhausted their puck luck. The Hawks have posted a positive expected goals-for ratio in two of those eight games and accumulated a 1.041 PDO, cresting their season-long PDO above the hypothetical 1.000 average.
These teams should see a reversal of fortunes tonight. The Wings are deserving of a few more good bounces, while the Blackhawks’ pendulum should start swinging the other way. Red Wings moneyline is the play in this one.